The SBCTA Board of Directors was given an economic briefing at their May 6
th
meeting. Economist Christopher Thornberg from the University of California, Riverside, Center for Economic Forecasting and Development gave an overview of the U.S. economy going into the COVID-19 crisis, where we stand now and what we may expect as the economy reopens post-COVID crisis.
Since there is no modern metaphor for the COVID-19 crisis, economists are struggling to find a model to link to the current situation. The lack of data makes economic modeling difficult. He pointed to the drastic increase in unemployment as one indicator we can glean some insight from. Typically, unemployment is not a leading indicator of a downturn, but the result of a downturn.