Your November Newsletter from CALCAP!

CALCAP CONNECTIONS

November 2023

Principal's Corner

Pending Home Sales Fall to 20 Year Low

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales hit a record low in October, dropping 1.5% from the previous month. Pending home sales are a leading indicator of housing activity, since a house goes under contract “pending sale,” 30-60 days before it is sold. This decline represents the lowest point in NAR records, dating back to 2001, even surpassing levels observed during the 2008 financial crisis. Compared to October of the previous year, pending home sales were down 8.5%. The housing market's struggles can be attributed to a combination of factors, including rising mortgage rates and a persistent shortage of available homes for sale.

The recent rise in mortgage rates played a significant role in these declining numbers. In October, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate briefly spiked above 8%, causing potential buyers to pause. Although rates have since eased to around 7.3%, the limited supply of homes for sale remains a significant obstacle to homebuyers. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the NAR, noted, "Recent weeks’ successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied." The scarcity of homes on the market has led to competitive bidding, leaving many potential buyers searching for alternatives.

Source: Bloomberg

Geographically, pending sales fell across the board, except for the Northeast, which experienced a slight increase. The steepest decline was in the West, where homes tend to be more expensive. The persistent tight supply and robust demand continue to drive home prices to new highs, with some segments of the market seeing an increase in sales of homes priced above $750,000 due to more supply in that range.

In a related trend, the housing market is seeing a shift towards new construction as buyers seek alternatives to the limited inventory of existing homes. New homes now account for about one-third of all houses for sale, which is more than double the historical norms. This shift is reflected in rising new home sales, even as existing home sales drop.

Despite the challenges, many economists anticipate that the market may start to shift towards more favorable conditions in 2024. While buyers continue to struggle with affordability issues, slightly lower prices and softer mortgage rates are expected to stabilize existing home sales. Overall, 2024 is projected to bring modest improvements in affordability, offering hope for a more balanced housing market.

Edward M. Aloe

Founder and CEO

626-229-9057

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The purchase price of $15,000,000 is at an estimated 25% discount to market
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Latest Headlines...

US annual rent growth slows for the 17th straight month in September: CoreLogic

Single-family rent growth is back to pre-pandemic levels

Single-family rent prices in the United States only rose by 2.6% year over year in September, the lowest rent growth recorded in three years. That’s according to CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI), which analyzes single-family rent price changes nationally and across major metropolitan areas.

“Single-family rent growth eased again in September and is now back to the rate recorded before the pandemic,” Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic, said in a statement. “While low-tier rental gains are slowing, they have still surpassed those of their higher-priced counterparts since early 2020. Slowing month-over-month rent growth in September reflects typical seasonal patterns, but indications are that annual gains will remain positive through the rest of 2023.”

View Article Here

Here’s what you can expect from the 2024 housing market

Home prices to remain firm and grow in most markets in 2024

Predicting where home prices are going will become a game of “Which came first: the chicken or the egg?” If sellers are enticed into the market before first-time buyers get back in, we could see home prices dip early in 2024. At a national level, if there are price drops, they will be modest and short-lived simply because inventory will still be very low by historic standards. The markets with the greatest risks of price corrections are the country’s least affordable, including many major coastal markets.

If buyers come back to the market before sellers, we are in for a competitive market with prices rising.

Prospective first-time buyers may continue to sit out the for-sale market in early 2024 as there are more deals in the rental market. Record levels of new apartment construction have led to rent declines and concessions, making it more attractive to rent than to buy in some places.

However, the desire for homeownership is very strong. The underlying demographic fundamentals indicate strong demand and low inventory in 2024 and through the rest of the decade.

View Article Here

Market Outlook: Rent Vs. Buy Premium Drives Strong Performance in Multifamily Sector

Multifamily demand conditions and tight resale single-family inventory continued to aid strong results for public REITs in the third quarter.

Favorable demand conditions as well as the limited supply of competitive housing types, such as existing single-family homes, continued to benefit public real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the third quarter. Despite largely positive results across the board for public-reporting companies—including strong lease renewal and occupancy rates—several REITs did note the delivery of new apartment supply as a potential headwind to rental rate growth among new residents.

View Article Here

On the lighter side...

About CALCAP Advisors

About CALCAP

California Capital Real Estate Advisors, Inc., and its affiliate entities (CALCAP Asset Management, CALCAP Properties, CALCAP Lending, CALCAP Senior Healthcare, and CALCAP Strategic Opportunities, collectively known as “CALCAP”), is a California-based investment company founded in 2008 and headquartered in Pasadena, California. The Company sponsors alternative real estate investment opportunities focused on demographically driven housing. CALCAP has been able to consistently provide both individual and institutional investors with outstanding returns over the last 14 years. The Company uses a highly selective and disciplined investment approach, focused on delivering superior risk-adjusted returns. CALCAP currently has over $650mm in Assets Under Management. To learn more visit www.calcap.com.

Social Mission

CALCAP CARES is a 501(c)(3) private foundation organized to encourage employees to find a way to give back to the neighborhoods where we invest. CALCAP has created "GiveTime4Autism" as its initial program which gives employees the opportunity to donate unused vacation and sick days for a very worthy cause.