Our comprehensive list and schedule of all upcoming political fundraisers. | |
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In this update:
Election Updates
- MU Poll Recap
- Primary Election Next Tuesday
- Presidential Race
- Harris chooses Walz
- Presidential Campaigns in Wisconsin
- Two new WI Presidential Polls
- US Senate
- Baldwin release new ads
- DSCC releases new ad
- US House
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3rd CD
- Van Orden releases first ad
- DCCC releases polling memo
- Outside group attacks Shankland she responds
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8th CD
- Wied and Roth release new ads
- Outside group releases ad attacking Wied
Legislative Update
- Future of UW System Study Committee holds hearing
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Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, August 7th. Looking ahead to the November Elections, the poll found that:
- 50% of registered voters backed former President Trump, while 49% supported Vice President Kamala Harris. When third party candidates were included, Harris received the support of 45% and Trump 43%.
- 53% of registered voters supported U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 46% backed GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde.
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ICYMI: For an in-depth analysis of the poll from Michael Best, click here.
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Primary election next Tuesday | |
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Next Tuesday, August 13th, is the partisan primaries for state Assembly, state Senate, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House of Representatives seats. In addition, all Wisconsin voters will have an opportunity to weigh-in on two proposed constitutional amendments that would decide whether to give the state Legislature more defined power over distributing federal funding.
Primary Races of Note
- 3rd CD Democratic Primary:
In the 3rd CD state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point), Rebecca Cooke (D-Eau Claire), and Eric Wilson (D-Eau Claire) are running for the Democratic nomination to face incumbent U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien). Van Orden was first elected in 2022, one of the 9 seats Republicans flipped in 2022 to take control of the US House of Representatives.
- This is Cooke’s second time running for the 3rd CD, having finished 2nd to Brad Pfaff in the four-way Democratic primary for the seat in 2022. Cooke has raised the most money of any of the Democratic candidates and has been in the race the longest. Cooke has received the endorsements of some centrist national Democratic Congressional organizations, like the Blue Dog coalition, and some individual congressional members in those organizations, as well as former Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson.
- Rep. Shankland has served in the State Assembly since winning her seat in 2012 and has received the endorsement of Madison-area Congressman Mark Pocan, the majority of her colleagues in the legislature who represent districts within the 3rd CD and the majority of labor unions in the state.
(Cook Political Report has this race listed as a Lean GOP currently)
- 8th CD Republican Primary:
In the 8th Congressional District Republican Primary, we have two Republicans with lengthy legislative resumes and one political newcomer who has already won the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. One interesting note about the 8th CD Primaries and Election, is voters in that district are going to have to vote twice on each ballot for their candidates because there is a special election and a regular election happening concurrently because of the timing of the retirement of Cong. Gallagher. The winner of the Special Election will serve the period from the November Election until Inauguration Day, and the Winner of the General Election will serve a full two-year term. We don’t expect voters to select two different candidates, but there could be confusion and some drop-off between the Special Election votes and the General Election votes.
- State Senator Andre Jacque was first elected to the State Assembly in 2010. In 2018 he ran in a Special Election for the 1st Senate District that was vacated by Republican Sen. Frank Lasee who took an appointment in the Walker Administration as a Division Administrator at the Department of Workforce Development. Jacque lost that special election to Democrat Caleb Frostman by 805 votes. However, Jacque went on to defeat Frostman later that year in the higher turnout November General Election by over 7,000 votes. Sen. Jacque has been endorsed by Pro-Life Wisconsin, Texas US Senator Ted Cruz and several area state legislators including; Senator Rachael Cabral-Guevara and Representatives Gustafson, Behnke, Bodden and Tusler.
- Former State Senator Roger Roth served in the State Senate from 2015-2023 and State Assembly from 2007-2011. Roth most recently won the Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor in 2022 and was on the ticket with Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels. This is Roth’s second run for Congress, losing in the 2010 Republican Primary to eventual Congressman Reid Ribble 48% to 32%. Roth has been endorsed by former Governor Scott Walker, Congressman Scott Fitzgerald and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
- First time candidate businessman Tony Wied is the third Republican candidate on the primary ballot and has had his profile elevated with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Wied owned and operated a chain of gas stations in the region. In addition to President Trump, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum have endorsed Wied.
(Cook Political Report has this race listed as a Strong GOP currently)
- State Legislative Primaries: Twenty-five incumbents in the state legislature will have a primary next week.
- 21 Assembly Republicans
- 6 of the Assembly Republicans involved in primaries are the result of pairings under the newly enacted maps for the 2024 elections:
- Rep. Peter Schmidt (R-Bonduel) and Rep. Elijah Behnke (R-Oconto) in AD 6.
- Rep. Nate Gustafson (R-Fox Crossing) and Rep. Michael Schraa (R-Oshkosh) in AD 55.
- Rep. John Spiros (R-Marshfield) and Rep. Donna Rozar (R-Marshfield) in AD 86.
- 3 Assembly Democrats
- 1 Senate Republican
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MyVote Wisconsin
Curious as to what is on your August 13th Partisan Primary Ballot? Click here to go to the MyVote website to access what is on your ballot, voting locations, and to register to vote.
Michael Best Strategies’ Wisconsin Elections Hub
Ahead of the primary, be sure to visit our Elections Hub for information on the races and candidates.
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VP Harris choses Walz as running mate | |
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Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate in her presidential bid. He was first elected as Minnesota governor in 2018 and lists his accomplishments as “providing universal free school meals for students, protecting reproductive freedom, strengthening voting rights, laying the groundwork to get Minnesota to 100% clean electricity by 2040, cutting taxes for the middle class, and expanding paid leave for Minnesota workers.” Prior to being elected governor, he served six terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, 24 years in the Army National Guard, and more than 15 years as a public high school teacher and football coach.
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Harris and Vance visit Eau Claire | |
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Vice President Kamala Harris and newly announced running mate Tim Walz held a rally in Eau Claire. VP Harris listed issues that the campaign wants to focus on: affordable housing, health care, childcare and paid leave. She promised to crack down on the trend of corporate greed and high prices for Americans. She also was critical of former President Trump’s part in overturning Roe v. Wade. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said if Trump gets elected, “it will be far worse than it was four years ago.”
On the same day in Eau Claire, Republican Vice President nominee J.D. Vance spoke with reporters at Wollard International in Eau Claire. Ohio Senator Vance would not commit to debate Gov. Walz since he doesn’t “know who the vice-presidential nominee is going to be, either. He's got a lot of skeletons that are coming out of the closet today, and we'll see if the Democrats pull a bait and switch on Tim Walz or on Kamala Harris, just like they did with Joe Biden.” He went knock Gov. Walz, “Working people need to live in communities with public safety, working people need to be able to build a business and know that some hoodlum isn’t going to come along and burn it to the ground because of a political issue, working people need the police to be supported in their communities, and Gov. Walz has been a total failure on all those things,” Sen. Vance said.
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CBS News and Competitiveness Coalition release new polls | |
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CBS news and Competitiveness Coalition released polls finding Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a close race in Wisconsin. Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey for Competitiveness Coalition finding Vice President Harris two points ahead of former President Trump. Among likely Wisconsin voters in a multi-candidate race, 48% support Vice President Harris while 46% back former President Trump. Other candidates did not receive 1%. Public Opinion Strategies polled 400 likely Wisconsin voters between July 23-29 using online respondents and via text message to complete the survey online. The margin of error was +/- 4.9 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight rates Public Opinion Strategies the country’s 139th best pollster with 1.7 stars out of three.
Meanwhile, CBS News found former President Trump slightly ahead with 50% support among likely voters and Vice President Harris a point behind with 49%. CBS News/YouGov surveyed 3,102 registered voters nationwide from July 30-August 2nd. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 2.1 points. FiveThirtyEight rates YouGov 2.9 stars out of three.
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U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin released two ads this week. The first ad focuses on GOP candidate Eric Hovde’s statements on single parents. The ad will run statewide and features children of single mothers in disbelief that Hovde thinks they are “going to be poor or a drug addict.” The ad plays Hovde saying, “That is a direct path to a life of poverty… it leads to higher drug rates.”
Watch the ad here.
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The second ad will air statewide and features an Iraq war veteran, Don Eggert, calling Sen. Baldwin a “fighter.” He says that Baldwin worked across the aisle to pass a law for those who were “exposed to toxic chemicals are getting the care that we deserve.” Don Eggert said he was diagnosed with cancer after returning from Iraq, and the VA denied him and others coverage.
Watch the ad here.
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DSCC launches first ad to knock Hovde | |
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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Commitee (DSCC) announced their first TV ad knocking GOP candidate Eric Hovde as a “arrogant, phony fraud.” The narrator calls Hovde a California banker and one of Orange County’s influential residents. The narrator says, “Now, this California banker wants to buy a Senate seat in Wisconsin. Eric Hovde, what an arrogant, phony fraud.”
Watch the ad here.
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U.S. House of Representatives | |
Van Orden releases first TV ad | |
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U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) released his first ad of his re-election campaign. The ad features Rep. Van Orden with his grandchildren and goats, saying, "Welcome to Washington, D.C. You got a bunch of loudmouth, preening politicians - it's absolute chaos." The ad will run on broadcast, cable, and streaming TV.
Watch the ad here.
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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) issued a polling memo on the findings of a 3rd congressional district poll. In the memo they noted that 48% of likely voters in the 3rd CD support U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) while 47% would support a Democratic candidate. The memo also that their poll’s findings suggested that U.S. Rep. Van Orden is performing worse than a generic Republican candidate. “A generic Republican leads a generic Democrat by 5 points, 50% to 45% – 4 points stronger than Van Orden’s margin.” DCCC Analytics polled 600 likely 3rd CD voters between May 29-31 via landline, cell phone and text-to-web. The margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight rates DCCC Analytics 1.1 stars out of three. | New Democrat Majority PAC runs ad knocking Shankland | |
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New Democrat Majority PAC released an ad targeting State Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) for “attacking” her opponent Rebecca Cooke (D-Eau Claire). The ad says Rep. Shankland has been “hamstringing our governor from expanding BadgerCare,” closing rural hospitals, giving more tax breaks for the rich, and “rolling back restrictions on how close sexual predators can live to our schools and daycares.”
State Rep. Shankland responded to the ad saying it could affect other Democratic candidates in the region, explaining, “It is harmful to our democracy when so much dark money comes into a Democratic primary, some of which is used to attack a longstanding lawmaker’s legislative record, and it isn't just my record, it's many other Democrats, some of whom are in vulnerable positions in the third congressional district.” Rep. Shankland's campaign also created a web page to refute the claims.
Watch the ad here.
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8th CD candidate Tony Wied (R-Suamico) launched a new TV ad with former President Donald Trump saying Wied has his endorsement and calling on former state Sen. Roger Roth (R-Appleton) to drop out. The ad will run on broadcast and streaming services in the 8th CD and features former President Trump saying Mr. Wied is a “highly successful businessman and America-first warrior who is running against RINO Roger Roth.” Mr. Wied will face former Sen. Roth and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-De Pere) for the GOP nomination on August 13th.
Watch the ad here.
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8th CD candidate Roger Roth (R-Appleton) launched his second ad on broadcast TV in northeastern Wisconsin which will run until election day. The ad highlights former state Sen. Roth as a veteran and says, “In Congress, he’ll fight alongside President Trump to finish the wall, deport criminals and protect our jobs.” Former Sen. Roth will face Trump-endorsed Tony Wied (R-Suamico) and state Sen. Andre Jacque (R-De Pere) in the August 13th primary.
Watch the ad here.
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The Speak Free or Die PAC releases ad | |
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The Speak Free or Die PAC launched new ads critical of 8th CD candidate Tony Wied (R-Suamico) as “slick” and a “total loser.” One ad will run on broadcast TV while the other is a digital spot. Both ads say Wied want to raise the price of gas to enrich himself. The ad calls him a “total loser” and a “fraud.”
Watch the TV ad here.
Watch the digital ad here.
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UW-System study committee hearing | |
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The Legislative Council Study Committee on the Future of the University of Wisconsin System held their second meeting to discuss topics like UW-System branch campus closures and financing the UW-System. The meeting features speakers from the Legislative Fiscal Bureau, UW President Jay Rothman, and UW-Madison Economics Professor Ananth Seshadri.
UW President Rothman said UW campuses need more resources but needs to know where the money will come from if the state does not provide the funds. His data showed that UW, except UW-Madison, pays assistant faculty 5% less, associate faculty 13% less, and full faculty 19% less to peer universities. He also highlighted the decrease in enrollment numbers that Legislative Fiscal Bureau fiscal analyst Erin Probst provided to the committee. “The universities of Wisconsin remain nationally and internationally respected, but a lack of adequate resources will eventually undermine our well-deserved reputation for academic excellence. I spent my entire life in this state—that's not the Wisconsin I grew up in, and it is not the recipe for long term success, in my humble opinion, for future generations of Wisconsin,” UW President Rothman said.
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Michael Best Strategies will be pausing our “Capitol Chats” series and will move forward as “Coffee with the Candidate” at the same time on Fridays after the primaries in August. | |
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If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
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One South Pickney Street, Suite 700
Madison, WI 53703
Phone: 608-257-3501
Fax: 608-283-2275
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