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May 12, 2024
Key Takeaways:
- It's been 219 days--more than seven months--since October 7, 2023, when, on Simchat Torah, Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel and murdered 1,200 people (including 44 Americans). More Jews were murdered on that day than on any day since the Holocaust. Hamas wounded 3,300 and took 240 hostage during a day of brutal savagery and unspeakable, undeniable sexual violence; 133 hostages, half probably dead, some raped and possibly pregnant, remain captive in Gaza today.
- These remaining hostages comprise five religions and 25 nationalities, including eight Americans, five of whom are probably alive: Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Keith Siegal, Omer Neutra, Edan Alexander, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Gad Haggai.
- First facts, then analysis: Biden paused one non-urgent arms shipment and said he would withhold further specific offensive weapons for specific purposes only if Israel launched a full offensive in Rafah--which has not happened.
- The "daylight" between the U.S. and Israel occurred because Biden addressed leaks from Israel. Biden continues to focus on the hostages, put the onus on Hamas to reach a deal, support Israel's right to eradicate Hamas and take meaningful action to fight antisemitism and elsewhere.
- Biden became the first U.S. president to directly defend Israel from attack, using U.S. troops to defend Israel against an Iranian missile attack that, but for Biden's coordinated defense, would have resulted in deaths many multiples of October 7. Suggesting that the only president to repeatedly call himself a Zionist, that the first president to visit Israel during wartime and then requested unprecedented aid to Israel, would abandon or betray Israel is patently absurd and says more about those making the accusation than it does about Biden.
- The choice in November is between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Trump repeatedly engages in antisemitic rhetoric, criticized Israel's leaders days after October 7, and proved during his presidency that he is not good for Israel. Even if your only two issues are antisemitism and Israel and you don't care about democracy, abortion, gun safety, or climate change, Biden is still your clear choice even if you give Biden no benefit of the doubt.
Read to the end for corrections, what you may have missed last week, fun stuff, and upcoming events.
Hi Steve,
On Wednesday, President Biden said that the U.S. would not provide certain categories of weapons if Israel launches a major ground offensive in Rafah. This announcement is emotionally and factually difficult to process. Be sure you understand Biden's position before reading further. And if you reply to this email, be sure you don't commit any of these fallacies.
Many of us instinctively believe that if the governments of the U.S. and Israel disagree, the U.S. must be wrong. We worry that any disagreement could lead to fractures in the alliance itself, and we interpret the facts in the worst possible light (or we fall victim to those who misrepresent the facts for political purposes).
Let's go step by step. More than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering in Rafah, having been forced there by Israeli operations in Gaza during the past seven months. The U.S. has been cautioning Israel for months not to launch a major offensive in Rafah without credible plans to avoid mass casualties. Thus far, Israel has not presented such a plan, and Biden's announcement should not have caught anyone by surprise.
Following leaks from Israeli sources, President Biden affirmed in an interview that he would restrict certain categories of weapons for delivery to Israel if Israel launched a large-scale operation in Rafah. That operation has not happened and U.S. discussions with Israel are ongoing, which means none of the weapons Biden referenced in his hypothetical have been withheld.
The administration does not oppose limited operations in Rafah such as the one Israel conducted last week. Biden continues to support Israel's right to eradicate Hamas. To date, a grand total of one non-critical arms shipment of large bombs that Israel does not need for any purpose other than a full invasion has been delayed to signal the administration's heightened concerns about a full-scale operation (Israel has sufficient stockpiles to conduct the operation Biden is warning against). None of the weapons at issue are defensive weapons. Under no scenario would Iron Dome or other missile defense systems be affected. This is a narrowly tailored dispute about a potential operation that is controversial within Israel. That's it.
No one likes to see public daylight between the U.S. and Israel but there has been public daylight in every administration since 1948. Daylight is a two-way state. Prime Minister Netanyahu and members of his cabinet regularly and publicly disagree with the U.S. and leak information, which right-wing outlets in the U.S. readily pick up in an effort to embarrass the administration--such as the leak about the arms shipment.
When the administration goes public, it is often out of frustration that private conversations go nowhere. Following weeks of requests that Israel increase humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza, President Biden made public a readout of a phone call with Netanyahu. The next day, Israel took action it could have taken sooner.
President Biden's announcement about Rafah does not strengthen Hamas. The message Biden is sending is clear and simple: Eradicate Hamas? Yes. Targeted operations in Rafah? Yes. Major offensives without a credible plan to minimize civilian casualties? No. This is not a mixed message.
National Security Advisor John Kirby put it this way: Biden is "going to continue to provide Israel with the capabilities that it needs, but he does not want certain categories of American weapons used in a particular type of operation in a particular place."
Hamas is not an existential threat to Israel and Israel is not fighting for its survival. Israel is fighting a just war against terrorists embedded in densely populated areas but it must do so by just means; e.g., by not launching an invasion without taking humanitarian concerns into account.
Hamas does not care about civilian casualties. If Israel invades Rafah, the terrible images of massive civilian deaths will further isolate Israel and weaken its negotiating position. We have seen no correlation between the ebbs and flows of Israel's military activity since October 7 and Hamas's willingness to negotiate. Unless you think that Hamas is motivated by humanitarian concerns, Biden's announcement will not stiffen Hamas's resolve, and if you think Hamas is not already emboldened after October 7 and all that has happened since...
Anyone who doubts Biden's commitment to Israel's safety and security at this point is forgetting that after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, President Biden immediately backed Israel and soon became the first president to visit Israel during wartime. Biden has said repeatedly that the onus is on Hamas to accept a deal.
Last month (have we already forgotten?), Biden coordinated the allied response to Iran's attack on Israel (without which thousands of Israelis would have been killed on a scale far worse than October 7.). He is the only president in history to take direct action, using U.S. military assets, to defend Israel from attack.
In October, Biden proposed an unprecedented emergency aid package to Israel that passed last month. Biden vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Palestinian statehood (the U.S. voted against the General Assembly's symbolic statehood resolution last week). Biden approved over 100 arms sales to Israel while Republicans were blocking his aid package to Israel for six months.
President Biden has done more to protect Israel militarily and diplomatically than any president in history, with the possible exception of Nixon's airlift of weapons during the Yom Kippur War (Nixon waited until Israel was on the verge of annihilation and then prevented Israel from achieving total victory, forcing Israel to settle for a draw). But our Republican friends would have us believe that his decades of strong support for Israel as a Senator, Vice President, and President were all part of a grand, long-game strategy to lull us into complacency so that he could pause one non-essential arms shipment to Israel.
Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel. Republicans like us to point to this group or that group that signs a letter they don't like. They'd like us to forget that Democrats vote overwhelmingly for aid to Israel and that Republicans, not Democrats, blocked emergency aid to Israel for six months and that a couple week before October 7 Republicans, not Democrats, voted to cut aid to Israel. You can read the details here. And while you're at it, read the details on GOP weakness on antisemitism too.
President Biden reaffirmed his support for Israel and opposition to antisemitism. On Tuesday, President Biden delivered remarks at the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Annual Days of Remembrance Ceremony. Biden reminded the nation "that Hamas unleased this terror, that it was Hamas that brutalized Israelis, that it was Hamas who took and continues to hold hostages." He called campus and other antisemitism "absolutely despicable" and said that "there is no place on any campus in America — any place in America — for antisemitism or hate speech or threats of violence of any kind."
He reaffirmed that "my commitment to the safety of the Jewish people, the security of Israel, and its right to exist as an independent Jewish state is ironclad, even when we disagree. My administration is working around the clock to free remaining hostages, just as we have freed hostages already, and we will not rest until we bring them all home."
This fact sheet describes actions the Biden administration is taking to fight campus antisemitism.
Do you think Trump might be better? If you support Israel and oppose antisemitism and you're thinking about voting for Donald Trump, you're listening to some woefully uninformed (but loud) people.
Days after October 7, when Biden was backing Israel, Trump was attacking Israel and Israel's leaders. In more than 50 years of public service, Biden has never condoned or engaged in antisemitic rhetoric. Trump does it all the time--this thread captures only a fraction of his long history of antisemitic rhetoric. Voting for Trump to fight antisemitism is like smoking cigarettes to fight lung cancer.
Trump is not pro-Israel. Is Trump your idea of a trustworthy ally? Do you think he's honest? Trump will do whatever Trump thinks is best for Trump. He has no coherent foreign policy. Do you think someone who eschews diplomacy and burns our allies every chance he gets could have pulled off the coordinated response that saved Israel from Iran's missile attacks? Do you think that just happens? Or do you think that Trump would surround himself with highly qualified people, only the best people? Personally, I doubt that Jared could have pulled this off.
Trump is backed by pro-Evangelical right-wing Christians who want a war between Israel and its neighbors that will bring about the end of days. Trump didn't move the embassy to Jerusalem for Jewish Americans or for Israel--Israel never clamored for it. The impetus for moving the embassy was an unsuccessful Republican play for Jewish votes in 1996. Trump made the move--by his own admission--for his Evangelical base, not Jewish voters and not Israel.
If Trump were president and if he wanted to give his Evangelical base their money's worth, he would have let those Iranian missiles hit Israel. Israel would have responded with massive attacks of its own, Iran would have retaliated, and we'd have the Armageddon our friends at Christians United for Israel dream of. That's why they "support" Israel in the first place.
Or imagine if someone as petty and petulant as Trump was mad at Israel's Prime Minister (it won't be Netanyahu forever) or at ungrateful Jews on the day when Iran attacked Israel. Why would anyone want someone as unstable as Trump in the White House when Israel's security is on the line? If you're nostalgic for Trump and you care about Israel, remind yourself of why Trump was bad for Israel.
So where does this leave us? If you don’t care about Israel, antisemitism, democracy, abortion, climate change, or gun control, and if your personal economic interests align perfectly with Donald Trump’s and you don’t care about anything or anyone else, then I suppose yeah, Trump is probably your guy.
If not, but if you have rage and resentment issues that might cause you to vote for a corrupt, ignorant, boor, see a therapist or buy a punching bag. Don’t take it out in the ballot box and ruin the country for everyone else.
The rest of us are the vast majority of Jewish Americans, albeit not the loudest. Our job is to distinguish between those within our community who are persuadable and who aren't. Focus on people who you can convince to support candidates and organizations aligned with our values, such as Jewish Democratic Council of America, and don't waste your time on unpersuadables.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one brought any mistakes to my attention last week, so it looks like last week's newsletter was perfect.
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In Case You Missed It:
- The Biden administration has concluded it is “reasonable to assess” that Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has violated international law, but has not found specific instances that would justify the withholding of military aid. The report did not find that Israel had intentionally obstructed humanitarian aid to Gaza.
- Jess Bidgood highlights the hypocrisy of Republicans--including Donald Trump--who condoned or celebrated the violence on January 6 now cheering for crackdowns on campus protests.
Tweets of the Week. Tim Miller and in memory of Steve Albini, the Weiners Circle (if you knew Steve at all, you know that this is not a disrespectful post).
Twitter Thread of the Week. Daniel Bral.
Video Clip of the Week. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) on the difference between Democrats and Republicans. (He was not making it up.)
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved 2022 and 2023 Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder. If someone forwarded this to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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