Dear Stuart,
In March, the sales and listings activity for detached homes on the Westside remained below the long-term averages.
Compared to the 10-year average, the supply of detached homes decreased by 11%, while apartments increased by 32%, and townhomes increased by 37%.
Similarly, demand, when compared to the 10-year average, decreased by 31% for detached homes, apartments decreased by 31%, and townhomes decreased by 14%.
In March, the westside Detached Home median price is down 14.9% from the peak in August 2023. The Apartment median price decreased by 4.2% from the peak in January 2018, and the Attached Home median price declined by 5% from the peak in February 2022.
Our spring market started off slowly this year with inventory down for detached homes but up for apartments and townhomes. Sales in March were even lower for detached homes and apartments but slightly up for townhomes. The ratio of demand to supply known as βmonths of supplyβ. MOS, is a driver of prices with a high MOS causing prices to decline and a low MOS causing prices to rise.
In January, the MOS, for westside detached homes, was 11.9 months which is too high to sustain prices but February MOS dropped to 7.2 which encourages price increases but March is up again to 8.5 which slows down those rising prices. Townhouse MOS was 12 in Jan., 5.6 in Feb. & Mar. is 4.9. Apartment MOS was 6.9 in Jan., 5.3 in Feb. & 5.0 in March. So apartment prices remain the most stable and detached prices without the highs & lows are fairly consistent but townhomes are quite up & down.
The seasonal market cycle is; quiet in Dec & Jan, busy February through June, slowing down in July & August and picking up a little in October. So now is the time to be on the market for a spring sale.
The Bank of Canada did not change the rates and that is seen as a conservative move to forestall any backsliding in the inflation rate due to an energized spring housing market.
Rate cuts if they come later this year will encourage buying but we are also further into the mortgage renewal cycle and now, many owners who purchased with favourable rates are forced into renewals at much higher rates. For owners unable to access funds from other sources to pay down their mortgages, the question is whether they will be forced to sell?
Even with high rates, Vancouver seems set for an optimistic spring market.
Happy Spring! β°βοΈππ·πΈπ
Best regards
Stuart
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