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BAM MARKET WRAP
February 26, 2016
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WHERE TO NEXT - VEGAS?
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
With the market's rally over the last two weeks, the S&P has recovered approximately half of its losses for the year.  It has been an impressive rally to this point and may have more to run.  The S&P is right at its resistance that we have talked about over the last couple of weeks.  If it can punch through these levels then it would be reasonable to assume that the index could rise another 50 points (2 ½%) before reaching its next resistance level.  Unfortunately, the other major indices have not yet risen above their corresponding resistance levels.  This should give investors pause that this might just be a strong counter trend rally in an otherwise downward move.  We are basically where we were last week.  The markets remain in a downtrend but are close to interrupting the trend with another strong day.  Hopefully, we will get a little more clarity next week.

 
WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
Oil continues to be a driver in this market.  Oil prices and the major indices continue to show lots of positive correlation on a day-to-day basis.  As we have discussed before, while low oil prices are good for the consumer in terms of filling up their gas tanks and heating their homes, there can be too much of a good thing.  The extremely suppressed oil prices have had reverberating effects throughout the economy in terms of lowered profits for a host of energy related industries and the potential for bankruptcy of many of the start-up oil fracking firms.   Additionally, there are a number of world economies that are substantially dependent on the price of oil that have fell on hard times and beginning to roil the natural balance of power throughout the world.  Countries and industries will adjust to the lower prices but the pace of the decline caught many by surprise and the markets do not like surprises.  Investors should continue to watch the oil markets to determine where this market may head next.  The markets remain risky and investors should continue to tread carefully.

 
HOW WE ARE DOING

There has been no change in our portfolios over the last week and we remain mostly in cash with a small position in treasury bonds.  If the markets move up from here we will look at adding a few equities to capture any upside.  Alternatively, if the markets head back down, we are likely to add another bond position or two to try and capture some gains in these markets.  We are poised to act either way and are just waiting for the market to tip its hand.   We continue to outpace the market with a small loss for the year while the indices have fared much worse.



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Tidbits
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NOT A BEAR - From its 5/21/15 closing high of 2130.82, the S&P 500 stock index would have to close at a value of 1704.66 or lower to officially qualify as a bear market, i.e., a drop of at least 20% from a previous closing high.  The S&P 500 closed at 1917.78 on Friday 2/19/16.  The S&P 500 consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.  It is a market value weighted index with each stock's weight in the index proportionate to its market value (source: BAM Research).

IN THE SIX MONTHS BEFORE - From a peak closing value on 10/09/07, the S&P 500 fell 56.8% over the subsequent 17 months before bottoming on 3/09/09.  In the 6 months preceding the 3/09/09 bear market low close, the S&P 500 experienced 12 separate trading days where the index fell by at least 5% in a single trading session (source: BAM Research).

ALSO IN THE SIX MONTHS BEFORE - From a peak closing value on 10/09/07, the S&P 500 fell 56.8% over the subsequent 17 months before bottoming on 3/09/09.  In the 6 months preceding the 3/09/09 bear market low close, the S&P 500 experienced 7 separate trading days where the index gained at least +5% in a single trading session (source: BAM Research).

GOOD FOR HOME BUYERS - The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage nationwide was 3.65% last week (Thursday 2/18/16), resulting in a $457.46 monthly principal and interest payment per $100,000 of debt.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage nationwide was 5.00% just 5 years ago (Thursday 2/17/11), resulting in a $536.82 monthly principal and interest payment per $100,000 of debt (source: Freddie Mac).         

OIL BUSINESS - On Friday 2/20/15, the price of oil was $50.34 a barrel and the number of operating rigs nationwide was 1,310.  One year later, the price of oil is $29.72 a barrel (down 41% in 1 year) and the number of operating rigs is 514 (down 61%) as of the close of trading last Friday 2/19/16 (source: Department of Energy).         

      
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I was reminded a few days ago about a family trip that we took when I was about 10 years old.  Sam, Nancy, my two sisters and I loaded up in our Chevy Impala and took off westward.  We took 3-4 weeks traversing the country ending up in California before heading back home.  As Sam tells it, the trip home from California was much quicker than the trip out!  It was a lot of family togetherness and I am sure a few arguments but lots and lots of memories.  I was reminded as my son Carter (22 in March) told me that he was taking a road trip to Las Vegas over Spring break!  28 hours of drive time and nearly 2000 miles each way with 3 college aged boys.  What could go wrong?  What could happen in Vegas!?  Oh the joys of parenting.  I am sure they will have a great time and in an odd sort of way, I am wishing I was invited to go along!  Actually, Carter invited Kelly and I to fly in to meet up with him but scheduling issues here at home will prevent us from going.   Probably for the best as the older I get the more I realize that ignorance often is bliss in regards to parenting.  I still have a few things hidden deep in my closet from my wilder adolescent days that I am not sure will ever escape a statute of limitations!   As Spring breaks, we hope you likewise have many adventures planned for the rest of the year.
 

 
Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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