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BAM MARKET WRAP
  October 14, 2013
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WHAT ARE THEY DOING?
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 

Economic measures and earnings season has taken a back seat to the continuing drama in Washington.  While the debt ceiling debate and government shut-down drones on, the market has been moving in lockstep with the rumors of the day.  After declining over 4% since the middle of September, the S&P has roared back 3% over the last 3 days with the hope that an impending deal to reopen the government is near.  The intra-day volatility has been extreme as the Dow traded down over 100 points yesterday before finishing up 64 points.  The markets are jittery and it is never a good feeling for  an investor to be beholden to politicians for the next market move.  Hopefully, things will be settled soon and investors can look again at real barometers of where the market should be - economic measures and earnings reports.

 

   

   

WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

 

While we continue to believe that Washington will strike a deal in the coming days, it is not beyond considering what would happen if no deal is reached.  That reality is keeping us from becoming too excited about the recent rally.  In fact, often markets rally on the expectation of something happening and then fall when the event comes and goes.  All that to say, we may get a sell-off regardless of what happens - a decline on the final news of a settlement or a significant fall if the debt ceiling is breached without an agreement.   It is not a winning proposition to make investing decisions based upon politicians.  Once the Washington debate is settled, the markets will return to some normalcy and investors again will look to job reports and earnings releases.  The markets remain disconnected with the economy.  At some point, one or the other will catch up - either the economy will become significantly better or the markets will correct to reflect economic realities.  With Janet Yellen (and her dovish history) at the helm of the Federal Reserve, easy government money could continue for some time and these markets may go higher than anyone imagines.  Regardless of the approaching new highs and the froth on the cable news channels, the market remains dangerous.  It is our job to watch the markets and respond.  We are doing both and adjusting the portfolios as market conditions warrant.   


     

 

HOW WE ARE DOING

 

We made a few portfolio adjustments over the last 3 weeks, adding positions to temper the volatility of the markets.  We anticipate continued volatility until the politicians get together to solve some of the major issues facing our economy.  Absent a solution, we are likely heading lower.  However, a "solution" may not mean an immediate end to the volatility or a pass to get aggressive.  Wall Street will make its own determination of the "solution" once it is passed.  We will respond accordingly.

 

 

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Tidbits
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JUST A FEW DAYS - The US government has projected that it will spend $3.77 trillion in fiscal year 2014 (i.e., the 12 months that began 10/01/13), equal to $10.34 billion a day. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has estimated that the Treasury Department will have just $30 billion in cash as of 10/17/13, i.e., approximately 3 days of average spending for the nation (source: Treasury Department).

 

 

THEY ARE WATCHING CLOSELY - China, with $1.28 trillion of US Treasury holdings (bills, notes and bonds) and Japan, with $1.14 trillion, are the top 2 foreign holders of American treasury debt as of 7/31/13. Just 3 years earlier (7/31/10), China held $847 billion and Japan held $821 billion (source: Treasury Department).

 

STAYIN' ALIVE - Total health care spending in the USA (i.e., total spending from all sources both government/public and private) is expected to be $2.9 trillion in 2013. That total is forecasted to climb +72% over the next 9 years (2022) to $5.0 trillion (source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services).

 

WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT - The number of federal government workers has decreased by 380,000 over the last 25 years (i.e., 8/31/88 to 8/31/13), but the number of state and local workers (excluding teachers) has increased by +3.9 million over the same period (source: Department of Labor).

 

TO MY OTHER FAVORITE W.W. - A copy of a Walt Whitman book used in the Emmy award winning television series "Breaking Bad" was auctioned off for $65,500 last week (source: ScreenBid.com).

 

  

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Since our last missive, I took a trip to Colorado to visit with a mutual fund company and other like-minded advisors.  It was an informative trip hearing from some of the sharpest portfolio managers and talking to peers.  I always enjoy going to Colorado and managed to spend an extra day to fly fish the Arkansas River.  As unpredictable as Tennessee weather is, I believe Denver has us beat.  I arrived to 80 degree temperatures with a 60 degree drop over the next 2 days and 6-8 inches of snow.  We headed Southwest to get to "warmer" temperatures to fish.  Even still, we were fishing in 40 degree weather with flurries in the air and a driving wind.  Despite the weather, it was a great day as I managed to catch 3 brown trout and my largest one ever - on my first cast no less!   As much as I love Denver, I was glad to get back to the 70's of Tennessee.   

 

 

Sam and Bo

 

 

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below. 

 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

 

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

 

 

 

 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright � 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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