Good afternoon, folks! I hope you're enjoying and able to capitalize on a MUCH welcomed period of dry conditions. Thought I'd end the workweek with a quick Ag Weather Update to focus on the exceptionally wet month of May, the cause of many headaches in the ag sector.

Starting out, data from the Ag Weather Center shows the state has averaged a whopping 7.58 inches since the start of May, which is almost 3 inches above normal. Looking at climate divisions, Western and Central KY averages are bumped up to 9.84 and 9.00, while the Bluegrass and Eastern KY are closer to 5-6. I've included a couple maps below showing observed and departure-from-normal rainfall over that timespan from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Some folks across the southern fringes of the state have picked up 10+ inches. The highest total in our database has come out of Trigg County where the local Mesonet station in Cadiz has recorded 14.02 inches! This is just over a quarter of what Cadiz would normally see in an entire year.

Comparing this May in the record books, the preliminary average of 7.58 for the state would place #6 on the 130-year record. The Western KY average would be #2 all-time. Bottom line, all you have to do is look at the rainfall data to see why planting progress is running so far behind in 2024. The wet pattern has also been awfully consistent, delaying those first hay cuttings. I write the weather summary for the Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report on Mondays, and as of May 27th, the state had seen four straight weeks of above-normal rainfall.

Unfortunately, the wet pattern hasn't been without numerous rounds of severe weather. The most prominent round was arguably this past Sunday when the Bluegrass State got hit in the morning and overnight hours. A highly unstable and moist atmosphere, combined with plenty of wind energy, produced numerous reports of localized flooding, damaging winds, and even several tornadoes. Storm surveys are still ongoing, but as of right now, the NWS offices in Paducah and Louisville have confirmed 13 tornadoes.

An EF-3 rating has been given to the Western KY tornado that was on the ground for nearly 36 miles through portions of Lyon, Caldwell, and Hopkins Counties. Peak winds were estimated at 160 mph. Just to put it in perspective, a tornado is rated EF-4 at 166 mph. A brief overview of this tornado, courtesy of the National Weather Service in Paducah, can be seen below. Outside of an EF-2 tornado in Pembroke, KY, with estimated winds of 115 mph, all others were rated EF-1. More details can be seen in the links above.

Looking forward, after a fantastic end to the workweek, another active pattern arrives over the weekend and into the next workweek with near-daily chances for rainfall. Don't expect a washout, but rather periods of rainfall. More typical summertime temperatures and humidity will accompany the activity next week, which will push the threat of heavy rainfall back on the table. These types of patterns can make forecasting accumulations a headache, but generally speaking, Western and Central KY are the favored areas for higher totals. I included a look at the WPC 7-day forecast rainfall map for reference below.

Looking into the second week of June, outlooks (below) start hinting at a cooler pattern for our neck of the United States. This lines up well with the passage of a strong cold front sometime during the middle to late stages of next workweek. Just for comparison's sake, normal high temperatures for this time of year run in the low to middle 80s. Highs in the 70s during this period would be a good bet. Rainfall-wise, outlooks favor near-normal rainfall.

In some closing thoughts, while the wet pattern has definitely presented us with some headaches in the ag sector, let's think about it with a "glass half-full" attitude. We'd much rather have a wet pattern than a drought! Enjoy your weekend!

Just a quick reminder that "Weather Alert" is now available on both Android and iOS platforms. More information on the project can be found in my last Ag Weather Update or from UK M-G CAFE, in their latest article titled, "UK launches new "Weather Alert" smartphone app".

Again the project was two-fold: to heighten awareness during extreme weather conditions and secondly, to empower Kentucky farming operations with valuable insights for management and production-related decisions. Please share!

Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky Forage News - May 2, 2024

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, May 23, 2024

Wheat Disease Update: Powdery Mildew, Bacterial Streak & Fusarium Head Blight - Dr. Carl A. Bradley, UK Plant Pathology Extension Specialist, May 14, 2024

Kentucky Beef Cattle Newsletter "Off the Hoof" - Beef IRM Team, May 1, 2024

UK Corn and Beans Newsletter - UK Grain and Forage Center of Excellence, May 2024