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6 tips for your reporting from polling experts
Opinion polls are a staple of election-year reporting, and experts say that reporters should expect to have to wade through at least 1,500 national, state and local polls in this coming election season. But which ones should reporters trust?
On Jan. 26, journalists and polling experts joined the National Press Club Journalism Institute to provide background in polling literacy and advice for how to cover polls in the 2024 election season.
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Check the reliability and reputation of the pollster. ABC News’ 538 recently updated its pollster ratings database that analyzes the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls.
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A good poll will be transparent about how it gathered its data, said Poynter senior correspondent Louis Jacobson. It should explain:
- whether it was conducted online, through calls to land lines, mobile phones, or a mix
- the timing of the poll
- the number of people polled
- the questions asked
- whether registered or likely voters were surveyed
- who funded the poll
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Understand each poll’s margin of error. Polls reflect how a campaign is unfolding and the mood of the electorate, but they aren’t predictions or always precise, said Courtney Kennedy, Pew Research Center’s vice president of methods and innovation. Even if a poll says its margin of error is plus or minus three, the real number may be closer to seven, according to this New York Times story.
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Be wary of using a campaign’s internal polls, especially in state and local elections where there are fewer polls in comparison to national polls, said Erin Covey, U.S. House analyst for the Cook Political Report. Campaigns like to cherry-pick and leak polls and “can be really sneaky about the way they’re pitching these polls,” she said.
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Pay attention to the demographic makeup of the polls in 2024. Non-White voters now make up 25 percent of the American electorate, said Jane Junn, professor of political science at the University of Southern California. How well a poll captured the mood of minority voters will matter particularly in swing states, she said. For example, polling data showed that Asian American voters played a key role in helping Democrats win in Georgia. “Making that analytical distinction” in the demographics of polls matters, she said.
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Explain why you are using a particular poll in your reporting. “Media needs to be more responsible about explaining why we use certain pollsters, why we trust certain pollsters, and how polling works within stories themselves,” said Covey.
For more tips on political polling, watch the recording:
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