BAM Banner
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAM MARKET WRAP
April 11, 2014
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SKY IS FALLING!    
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  

WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 

Yesterday saw a large one day decline in all the market indices.  The tech laden NASDAQ led the way with a decline of over 3%, with the S&P and Dow down 2.09% and 1.62%, respectively.  It was an ugly day all the way around.  Before we get too excited, it is important to note that the current market decline still leaves the S&P a little over 3% from its all-time high.  This could just be another small decline in the midst of an ongoing bull market.  As we have stated here before, it would be very constructive and healthy for the markets to correct 10% or more.  While that would certainly be nerve wracking for many investors, it would allow those that want to sell a reason to get out and would allow those that have missed the rally a chance to get in the market.  It would also temper some of the frothy valuations seen in certain sectors of the market.  With all that said, there is reason to be vigilant and cautious.  An increasing number of technical measures are flashing warning signs and the market is past overdue for a significant correction.  For the S&P a significant number to be watchful of is 1740 (5% below today's close).  A correction to this level would be normal and within the confines of the bull market advance.  A decline below this level would not bode well and would raise the stakes considerably setting the stage for a much deeper and more painful decline.  While the sky is not falling yet, there continue to be storm clouds building.

 

 

    

WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

 

The decline yesterday came with virtually no news to blame.  Earnings season begins in earnest over the next week and that will likely be the catalyst for further declines or a quick recovery of the recent losses.  Major market declines often come when the market is weak and vulnerable (now), when investors are already thinking about selling and a major event of some import occurs that leads many investors seeking the exit at the same time.  We continue to believe that a major market decline is in the cards at some time in the relatively near future, however, it is much too early to read too much into the current market weakness.  Investors should follow a disciplined approach to sell positions that have incurred declines that are greater than their comfort level and concentrate on preserving capital to fight another day.  Over the last 3 months, the market has certainly changed its character from last year and that is reason enough to be defensive in your investment thoughts. 

 

 

     

 

HOW WE ARE DOING

 

One of our holdings reached the sell stop we had set for it and more positions are certain to follow if the decline continues and accelerates.  We will be disciplined in our approach and in our investment goals of preserving capital while achieving market gains when the odds are in our favor.  There are yellow flags everywhere but as we have seen a number of times over the last few years, this bull market has shown a tremendous amount of resilience.  We will see over the coming days and weeks if this time is different but for now, we will continue to monitor your portfolios daily and make changes as the market dictates rather than what we think (or hope) might happen.  Thank you for allowing us to serve your investing needs.

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 
Tidbits
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SIX MONTH PERIODS - The 6-month period from November-April has gained +473.0% for the S&P 500 since 1990, 9 times the +52.6% return achieved during the 6 months from May-October. Both numbers are aggregate total return performance results calculated for their respective 6-month periods beginning on 5/01/90 and continuing through 10/31/13 (source: BAM Research).

 

WITH AND WITHOUT A DEGREE - The nation's unemployment rate as of 3/31/14 for Americans lacking a high school diploma is 9.6%. The nation's unemployment rate as of 3/31/14 for Americans with at least a Bachelor's degree is 3.4%. The nation's overall unemployment rate is 6.7% (source: Department of Labor).

 

SKILLED IMMIGRANTS - 25% of US high-tech companies started in the last 20 years (i.e., 1995-2014) have 1 or more foreign born founders (source: Dartmouth University).

 

WHO'DA THUNK IT - 98% of the participants in Warren Buffett's $1 billion NCAA basketball contest picked Duke to beat Mercer in the first round. Mercer beat Duke 78-71 on Friday 3/21/14. Buffett planned to cap his entries at 15 million (source: CNN).

 

US vs. THEM - The 2014 payroll of the Miami Marlins is $41.8 million, the smallest opening day payroll among 30 major league baseball teams this year. Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard, teammates for the Philadelphia Phillies, will each make $25.0 million this year (source: Major League Baseball).

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Suffice it to say that I did not pick Dayton to reach the Elite 8, nor U Conn to be national champions.  Accordingly, I did not win the $1 billion given away by Quicken and Warren Buffet.  In fact, of the 11 million entries submitted, no entry was perfect after 21 of the 63 total games.  It was definitely a wild tournament and, for me, that is what makes it so very interesting.  And how about those Vols!  I was proud (sort of) that I finished in 1,456,948 place!  We're # 1,456,948 has a nice ring to it but certainly was far out of the running for the $100,000 given to the top 20 finishers.  We hope your brackets fared better.  Not being an ardent baseball fan, I have entered into a sports purgatory for the next few months until the football season ramps up. 

 

I will be making a trip to Knoxville in the next few weeks, please let Sam or I know if you would like to schedule a meeting with either or both of us.  We hope you are enjoying the warmer weather and that your spring is off to a great start.

 

Sam and Bo

 

 

 

 

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  

 

RECENT POSTS

 

DO YOU HAVE A BENEFICIARY PROBLEM? 

 

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW AND DO ABOUT THE HEARTBLEED INTERNET VIRUS

 

 

 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

 

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

 

 

 

 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

Quick Links
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Investing Philosophy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Contact Information
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAM Logo

Knoxville Office

Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

Nashville Office
Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAAIM Newsletter Award

Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright � 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

 

Important Disclosure Information

 

Bills Asset Management ("BAM") composite performance results represent time-weighted actual performance results for continuously managed BAM accounts, which individual accounts BAM believes to be representative of its investment management process (i.e. mutual funds and exchange traded funds) for each specific strategy during the corresponding time period.  The composite performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other account earnings, and are net of applicable account transaction and custodial charges, and the separate fees assessed directly by each unaffiliated mutual fund and exchange traded fund holding that comprised each account, and the maximum investment advisory fee that the accounts would have incurred (by applying BAM's current investment advisory fee as set forth in its current written disclosure statement) during the corresponding time periods.

 

Please Note:  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, equal the performance results reflected, or equal any corresponding historical benchmark index.  The historical index performance results for all historical benchmark indices do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results.  The historical performance results for all indices are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual client or prospective client in determining whether the performance of BAM program meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s).  A corresponding description of each index is available from BAM upon request.  It should not be assumed that BAM account holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative benchmark index.  The BAM performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

 

For reasons including variances in the investment management fee incurred, market fluctuation, the date on which a client engaged BAM's investment management services, and any account contributions or withdrawals, the performance of a specific BAM client's account may have varied substantially from the indicated portfolio performance results.

 

In the event that there has been a change in a client's investment objectives or financial situation, he/she/it is encouraged to advise BAM immediately.  Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments purchased and/or investment strategies devised or undertaken by BAM will be profitable. 

 

Information pertaining to BAM's advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in BAM's current disclosure statement, a copy of which is available from BAM upon request.  Performance results have been compiled solely by BAM, are unaudited, and have not been independently verified.  BAM maintains all information supporting the performance results in accordance with regulatory requirements.