Happy Friday, folks! I hope all is well. I'm back after what has been a rather chaotic summer for the Weather Center. However, things are starting to get back to normal, which means I can begin sending out these updates more regularly!

Let's start with a focus on August thus far. As of August 23rd, the state has averaged 1.95 inches of precipitation, which is roughly three-quarters of an inch below normal. That said, there is a significant range across the state (see maps below). While Eastern Kentucky has averaged nearly 3 inches, that number shrinks to 1.19 for Western KY. Although drought conditions have been kept at bay, conversations with some folks in Western Kentucky suggest we might soon see some changes on the U.S. Drought Monitor (more on that below).

Temperature-wise, we've also seen quite the range, but overall, the state average is about normal for the month so far. While we've had max temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s at times, we've also had some cool days with temperatures well below normal. Case-in-point, the past few days. Highs have struggled in the 70s, and some areas have even seen lows in the 40s! I included a chart above of the top 10 lowest temperatures recorded by the Kentucky Mesonet yesterday morning (8/22). Meade County took top honor with a low of 44.2 degrees! To put this in perspective, average highs for this time of year range in the mid to upper 80s, while lows average in the mid to upper 60s. The highs in the mid to upper 70s we’ve seen recently would actually be more typical of late September or early October! It’s been quite a turnaround from what has been a somewhat warm summer for the area, ranking #32 warmest over the first two months of the summer season (June and July)(130-year record).

Drought conditions on the rise?

So, what can we expect moving forward? If you're looking for some rain, the forecast isn't very promising. As it stands now, with high pressure expected to remain in control, there's a good chance that most of Kentucky will stay dry over the upcoming week. Unfortunately, as high pressure moves east today, our winds will shift to a southerly direction, pushing highs back into the mid to upper 80s, and even into the low to mid-90s this weekend and into next workweek. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the driest areas in Western Kentucky hit 100. These temperatures WILL push the livestock heat stress index back into the danger category, so be sure to take necessary precautions.

Long-range outlooks suggest that this warm and relatively dry trend will continue through the start of September (see images below). While the Climate Prediction Center indicates that we are favored to see near-normal precipitation, it’s important to remember that "near normal" for this time of year is not particularly significant and likely won't be enough to alleviate drought conditions. In doing so, many of us will start monitoring the tropics, but currently, there is nothing in the picture (which is somewhat unusual for this time of year).

As much as I hope to avoid a repeat of 2022 and 2023, it's something that remains a possibility. Dry conditions combined with high heat are a concerning combination. We saw the impacts of this in August and September of 2019. Below is the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday. Currently, the spatial coverage of abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought is relatively sparse. However, as mentioned earlier, some areas are already starting to go in the wrong direction. For instance, the Fulton County Mesonet Station has only recorded 0.38 inches of rain for the entire month of August so far, and this amount is unlikely to change much given the current forecast and outlooks. That number only increases to 1.17 going all the way back to July 10th.  Shallow soil moisture levels have been tanking and we still have a sizable portion of the growing season ahead.

Moving forward, be sure to take a proactive approach in case conditions deteriorate again. The Climate Prediction Center has just released the latest 8-14 day U.S. Hazards Outlook and Western Kentucky is under an elevated risk for rapid drought onset (map below).

UK Extension Specialists, Drs. Bob Coleman and Jimmy Henning, recently highlighted some drought mitigation tips in an article from M-G CAFE Communications titled "Smart feeding and planning: Tackling hay challenges for horses amid Kentucky's drought." In summary, hay prices are rising due to what appears to be a "looming scarcity." If necessary, now is the time to secure hay for the upcoming winter and/or implement efficient hay management systems to reduce waste. As a sidenote, UK Forage Specialists are also receiving an increased number of reports regarding fall armyworms and advise producers to scout fields and pastures, "treating if numbers exceed a threshold of 2 to 4 larvae (caterpillars) per square foot on average". More information will be available in their September issue of UK Forage News.

In some closing thoughts, although we've seen five of our top-10 wettest years on record since 2011, the fall seasons haven’t necessarily followed this trend. In fact, the fall seasons of 2022 and 2023 rank as the 9th and 12th driest falls ever recorded in Kentucky. 2016 is 6th on the list, and September 2019 was the driest September ever recorded in state history. A dry fall in Kentucky isn't necessarily unusual (it is our driest season of the year), but the dryness has been taken to another level over recent years.

Just a quick reminder that "Weather Alert" is now available on both Android and iOS platforms. More information on the project can be found in the May 7th Ag Weather Update or from UK M-G CAFE, in their article titled, "UK launches new "Weather Alert" smartphone app".

Again the project was two-fold: to heighten awareness during extreme weather conditions and secondly, to empower Kentucky farming operations with valuable insights for management and production-related decisions. Please share!

Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report - USDA NASS Kentucky Field Office, August 19, 2024

Kentucky Pest News - University of Kentucky Entomology, Plant Pathology, and Weed Science Extension Specialists, updated August 20, 2024

Kentucky Beef Cattle Newsletter "Off the Hoof" - Beef IRM Team, August 1, 2024

UK Corn and Beans Newsletter - UK Grain and Forage Center of Excellence, August 2024

New Rapid Onset Drought Tool Forecasts Flash Drought Development - NOAA/NIDIS, June 17, 2024