INTRODUCTION
- As the conflict in Rakhine intensifies the United Nations says it expects a battle for the Rakhine State capital Sittwe between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA). A statement issued by the High Commissioner of the UN Human Rights Commission (UNOHCHR) on 19 April[1] said ongoing conflict in Rakhine State put Rohingya Muslims at "grave risk". "The military has been fast losing ground to the Arakan Army (AA) throughout northern and central Rakhine. This has led to intensified fighting in the townships of Buthidaung and Maungdaw, ahead of an expected battle for the Rakhine State capital, Sittwe. The two townships are home to large Rohingya populations, putting them at grave risk, the statement said.
- The UNOHCHR statement said the Rohingya community faces danger from both the Myanmar military as well as the Arakan Army (AA).
- UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said “Rakhine State has once again become a battleground involving multiple actors, and civilians are paying a heavy price, with Rohingya at particular risk”.
- “What is particularly disturbing is that whereas in 2017, the Rohingya were targeted by one group, they are now trapped between two armed factions who have a track record of killing them. We must not allow the Rohingya to be targeted again," Mr Türk added.
- The statement also said that the conflict is raging in 15 of 17 townships in Rakhine State the two sides, with the Myanmar military facing a heavy defeat, it is feared that the regime may resort to creating a sectarian conflict in Rakhine State to divert the attention of the Rakhine Buddhists who are the supporters of AA.
- The UNOHCHR statement calls on “the Countries with influence on the Myanmar military and armed groups involved must act now to protect all civilians in Rakhine State and prevent another episode of horrendous persecution of the Rohingya”.
- The UN might be expecting countries like China which has influence both on Myanmar's military and AA, to step up its role in preventing another cycle of violence against Rohingya and all civilians in Rakhine State.
- China along with other countries reaffirmed its commitment to continue its support in finding a solution to the Rohingya crisis. The renewed commitment was made during a discussion on the Myanmar situation in the UN Security Council on 4 April[2].
- However, Myanmar’s other neighbors so called “world's largest democracy” has started the repatriation of Myanmar refugees who fled after the military coup. This is yet another example of how India under the current right-wing Hindu government is no longer supportive of democratic cause for the people of Myanmar.
- In other parts of Myanmar, the political, humanitarian, and military situations become more complex with each passing day. The Min Aung Hlaing regime is still in no mood to find a solution to the country’s conflict. It instead resorted to putting additional pressure on the ordinary citizen to salvage his regime’s unjust and failing cause.
- During April there are reports of the regime forces continuing to abduct young people, including several stateless Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State, and forced them to join the military. By early May, the regime imposed a ban on overseas employment by men who are aged between 25-35. It is another attempt to force Myanmar youth to join the military.
Battle for Rakhine
The Arakan Army (AA) made a significant gain against Myanmar military positions across the Rakhine State since the fighting resumed last November. After analyzing the statements from AA and independent media sources, it was found that the AA is currently involved in at least four major military operations in Rakhine State to take control of the major cities in the state. They are-
A. Sittwe
It has become a reality for AA to launch an offensive to take control of the regional capital Sittwe after it took control of a key strategic town Ponnagyun in early March this year. Pynnagyun is situated only about 30 kilometres from Sittwe. According to media reports the residents of Sittwe have been expecting an offensive by AA that will include street-to-street fights in the city of nearly 200 000 people. The junta tried to impose a blockade on the city by imposing a ban on travel in and out of Sittwe and also imposed a ban on the transport of food into the city. A small Indian consulate in Sittwe said in mid-April that it was evacuating its staff from the city. This comes after a renewed call by AA military chief Twan Mrat Naing to civilians in Sittwe and other major towns in the state to evacuate to safer places. He made the call in his speech marking the 15th anniversary of the establishment of the AA on 10 April.
B. Kyaukphyu
AA captured Ramree Island near Kyaukphyu, where the Chinese established a special economic zone, on 12 March. AA said it had captured the island after three months of offensive against the regime forces. The capture of Ramree was verified by independent media based outside of Rakhine State. Also, AA said it is making gains on the control of Ann township, another strategic location near Kyaukphyu. The AA has been attacking junta positions in Ann Township, where the Myanmar military’s Western Command headquarters is based, since 24 March and the fighting still going on in the town.
C. Thandwe
Irrawaddy Burmese news reported that intense clashes between AA and the junta’s military forces broke out on 22 April in Thandwe Township, which is home to Ngapali Beach, a popular tourist destination. Irrawaddy news quoting various Rakhine media sources said the fighting started near the Tha Htay hydropower plant which is situated about 27 kilometres north of the Thandwe.
D. In the north near Myanmar Bangladesh border
AA said it has made significant gains against the junta positions in Buthidaung Township, which is situated about 24 kilometres from Maungdaw, a town situated on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Buthidaung is the base of the Myanmar military’s 15th Military Operations Command. Further gain in the area by AA will jeopardize the junta’s access to Bangladesh. Recently, hundreds of junta troops fled to Bangladesh in the face of their losses in the fight against AA.
Consequence of AA’s military gain
In simple military terms, it is astounding for AA to experience significant territorial gains during its relatively short rebellion against the central government in Nay Pyi Taw. However, if the current situation is compared to a similar situation in Northern Shan State late last year and early this year, the geopolitical situation factor might be a factor that would impact further advances by the AA.
In Northern Shan State the fellow rebel groups of AA the Three Brotherhood Alliance made a significant military gain after they launched Operation 1027 last October. AA is a part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, however, its role in the fighting in Northern Shan State has not been significant. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) also known as Kokang Army and the Ta Ang Palaung Army (TNLA), made significant gains in fighting against the regime forces, in the operation.
In the current position, they hold key strategic locations near the capital of Northern Shan State, Lashio. However, their advance has been halted by an intervention by China which negotiated a ceasefire between the warring sides. An uneasy truce has been held in Northern Shan State since February.
A similar intervention by China is likely in Rakhine State as well. However, AA operates more independently from Beijing than its counterparts in the Three Brotherhood Alliance. AA is drawing its support from the nationalist Rakhine Buddhists who are calling for a separate Rakhine country or at least to be part of the new federal Myanmar along with other ethnic states.
Another situation that makes Rakhine an even more complex crisis than other regions of Myanmar is the existence of more than 1 million Rohingya Muslims in the state. As the UN has pointed out Rohingya are facing danger from the two key conflict actors in the state.
However, AA denied that it poses a danger to the Rohingya minority in Rakhine State. In a statement issued on 24 April, the AA said it has been established to protect every ethnic group in Arakan State, and without targeting any innocent civilians, including Muslims, A Rakhine news agency Development Media group said.
The AA said it was surprised by the comment from Türk saying that the UN human rights chief did not mention the continuous killings of Arakanese, Muslim and other minority peoples in Buthidaung and Maungdaw by Muslim armed organisations such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, Arakan Rohingya Army and Rohingya Solidarity Organization.
In the meantime, The military regime has been using vulnerable Rohingya Muslims to join them in fighting against the AA and to force them to attack the Buddhist villages to stroke a renewed sectarian violence between Muslims and Rakhine in the state. That would divert the attention of AA from its fighting against the regime forces.
Rohingya dilemma for AA?
The Rohingya issue is a dilemma for AA. On one side, the focus of its armed struggle is to fulfil the aspirations of Rakhine nationalism, known as the 'Way of Rakhita’ a desire to restore Arakan sovereignty, which was lost in the 18th century to the Burmese kingdom.
On the other side, the key success of the AA so far has been attributed to its forward-looking ideology, which makes it one of the role models for other ethnically based rebel groups in Myanmar.
In a recent interview with BBC the chief of AA Twan Mrat Naing said, “Our revolution cannot solely focus on Rakhine nationalism because the fate of all oppressed ethnic groups in Myanmar is inter-connected. We as Rakhine people, have our Rakhita Dream, but we must consider the plight of other ethnic groups, including the majority of Bamars in mainland regions, who are also oppressed by the military dictatorship. This understanding became clearer to us as we continued our struggle for revolution”, General Twan Mrat Naing said in the quotes from the interview published by Burma News International (BNI) in February.
BNI also quoted Twan Mrat Naing as saying that, "We must now prioritize the implementation of multi-ethnic liberation, equal rights, unity, and peacebuilding guided by the Way of Rakhita. Some ethnic groups are not officially recognized in Myanmar's ethnicities list. Therefore I believe that true progress can only be made when the concept of citizenship rights and responsibilities is clearly defined for all citizens, paving the way for systematic development and a brighter future”,
However, Rohingya are already used as pawns in the battle of the regime forces in their fight against AA.
In one tragic incident which was not widely reported in the media, AA said at least 22 Muslims, including 8 Rohingya children were killed in a bombing on 18 March by the junta troops on a Muslim village in Myinbya Township, which is under AA’s control. A news release from AA said a jet from the Myanmar military attacked Tharda Muslim village. The AA condemned the attack on the Muslim village, saying that the airstrike was aimed to dent the support for AA among Muslims and also to create tension between the two communities.
Any foreign support for AA?
AA is a relatively new ethnic armed organization in Myanmar that emerged only in 2009 and since then it has made a strong impact in the ethnic conflict in the country. The key reason for AA’s success in a relatively shorter period can be attributed to the support of the people of Rakhine people and its diaspora based in different countries.
Some reports suggest that the conflict in Rakhine could be linked to the competition between China and India to control the natural resources of the state. Some of the newspapers in India[3] accused China of helping AA to safeguard Bejing's investments in the region and to undermine investment by India in establishing a sea link between India and Palatwa township in Chin State, a border area between Rakhine and Chin State, where AA has its presence. Also, a research paper by the New Delhi-based Institute of Chinese Studies supports a similar claim[4].
[1] https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/04/myanmar-turk-sounds-alarm-amid-rising-tensions-rakhine
[2] https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15652.doc.htm
[3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-supplying-weapons-to-arakan-army-armed-group-to-weaken-india-myanmar-report/articleshow/76741890.cms
[4] https://icsin.org/blogs/2021/06/14/auto-draft/
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