01.02.12
by Steven H. Kurlander
#1 - Good morning and welcome to what we hope to be a better year economically for the US.
A number of economic indicators in December indicated that the US economy may be poised for a very slow recovery in 2012.
- The Consumer Confidence Index in December increased almost 10 points to 64.5 in December, up from a revised 55.2 in November. It was the second consecutive increase in the index. Economists cited cheaper gas prices and indications that the labor market may be recovery as reason for their improvement in their moods to spend. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US economic activity.
- A recent AP poll of 36 private, corporate, and academic economists indicated that a majority of them predicted continued, but meager, growth in the US economy. The consensus of these experts was that there would be a 2.4% uptick in 2012. They prefaced this prediction on the absence of a major negative event such as a meltdown in the European banking system. The economy in 2011 grew at a paltry rate of less than 2%.
- Unemployment figures are trending downward and job growth is slowly happening. The unemployment rate remained below 9% in December and a Bloomberg survey of 62 economists stated that payrolls increased by 150,000 workers this month. The economists polled by AP expected job growth to continue to rise at a rate of 177,000 jobs a month until Election Day.The economy has generated at least 100,000 new jobs a month for five months in a row, which has not occurred since 2006.
- Inflation remains not a threat to the economy - The Consumer Price Index was reported in December to be unchanged after decreasing .1% in October.
- The Stock Market showed some gains-The Dow Jones Average finished higher for the year, its third year in positive territory, while the S&P was largely unchanged and the NASDAQ was off about 3%.
In my opinion, the US economy will not turn around until the housing sector recovers, which may take years because of foreclosures and lack of liquidity for refinancing of homes.
However, an indication that the economy maybe rebounding was reported to me last week while I was closing a refinance mortgage deal with a couple in West Palm Beach. The wife is employed as an office manager at a construction company that specializes in site preparation work. She told me that for the first time in a number of years, the company was hiring back many of the people it laid off when the real estate bust hit Florida years ago. Orders are "pouring in" from housing developers, which to me is the best indicator that huge money that is sitting on the side lines maybe starting to trickle back into the real estate market. Comment |
#2 - Another building block for an US economic recovery is a vibrant hospitality industry and there were good signs that consumers are beginning to spend more on travel.
There was a huge surge in visits to a number of theme parks in Florida over the Christmas-New Year's holiday. Disney World and Universal had to freeze entries to a number of their parks after they were overwhelmed with people at their gates.
What I found interesting was that the Florida's newest theme park, LEGOLAND, also had turn away people at one point last week and extended park hours an extra 90 minutes to accommodate visitors there.
Many Americans grew up playing with Legos and in a new age where kids are inundated with electronic toys and gadgets, I was excited to see Legos are still around and thriving-double digit sales growth were reported for the Dutch company in the first half of 2011 in 130 countries.
Maybe buying more Legos and visiting the new Orlando theme park could be another building block to an economic recovery in Florida and the US. Comment |
#3 - Talk about big spending, how about those SuperPacs in the Iowa primaries?
With the Iowa caucuses taking place tomorrow, Americans will not only find out which of the seven GOP candidates will win the election, but the first round of voting to pick a Republican Presidential candidate will also allow Americans to begin measuring the real impact on Presidential politics of the 2010 Supreme Court decision entitled Citizens United vs. Federal Election Committee.
That decision removed restrictions on the amount individuals and corporations can donate to "independent-expenditure only committees" or SuperPacs. SuperPacs are not allowed to coordinate directly with candidates or political parties and are still required to disclose their donors to the Federal Elections Commission.
SuperPac spending in the Iowa contest has been heavy. The Los Angeles Times reported that SuperPacs for all the candidates except Rick Perry outspent the campaigns themselves, mostly on TV, radio, and social media. Much of the SuperPac spending by front runner Mitt Romney targeted Newt Gingrich, who was consequently knocked out as frontrunner of the Republican field in recent polls.
With Romney, Ron Paul and surging Rick Santorum polling in the mid 20s and a good 40% of potential Republican voters reported undecided going into the final 24 hours before the caucuses, it remains to be seen whether traditional, grass roots tactics instead of unlimited contributions are still the mother's milk of campaigning (particularly in the unique Iowa caucus system) and will prove resilient against the growing financial prominence of Super Pac's and their ability to independently muddy up the waters with their caustic ads.
If Gingrich, Santorum, or even Ron Paul can somehow win, or take second or even third in the Iowa caucuses, and then go ahead to win one of the next three primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, then, despite the great spending by SuperPacs in these races, the initial impact of Citizens United vs. Federal Election Committee on Presidential politics should be deemed insignificant, at least in the early stages of the Republican primary season. Comment|
#4 - Speaking of Mother's Milk, race car driver Kasey Kahne learned last week that it's not the wisest thing to complain to Twitter followers about a mother breastfeeding her kid in the middle of a grocery store.
Kahne tweeted his followers last Wednesday the following:
"Just walking though supermarket. See a mom breast feeding little kid. Took second look because obviously I was seeing things. I wasn't!"
He went on to describe the scene in more detail before adding #nasty.
Guess Kahne got the immediate black flag from NASCAR and/or Rick Hendrick, owner of the sports team Hendrick Motorsports, which Kahne races for, for his allegedly sexist comment.
Damage control was swift. He posted an immediate apology stating:
"My comments were not directed at the mother's right to breastfeed. They were just a reaction to the location of that choice, and the fashion in which it was executed on that occasion."
Kahne joined celebrities Ashton Kutcher and Gilbert Gottfried and former Congressman Anthony Weiner among others that have learned the hard way that a crass comment posted on Twitter doesn't translate well for one's career.
What Kahne said was not wrong. It would offend my sensibilities to see a mother breastfeeding her kid in the middle of a supermarket - while breastfeeding is properly encouraged, a mother choosing to do so should show some respect and sensibility to those, like Kahne, who may have issues seeing it in such a public place.
It's a shame that Kahne and his benefactors did not have the guts to endure the criticism resulting from his tweet-most NASCAR fans probably agreed with his statement. Comment |
#5 - Twitter Dee and Twitter Dumb?
Kahne joined celebrity Bill Maher in the vulgar Tweeter penalty box this holiday season after Maher posted a "crude" tweet on Christmas Eve about Denver Quarterback Tim Tebow's performance against the Buffalo Bills:
"Wow, Jesus just f----- #TimTebow bad! And on Xmas Eve! Somewhere in hell Satan is tebowing, saying to Hitler 'Hey, Buffalo's killing them'"
Well, needless to say, that pissed off a lot of devote Americans and Mahler, the self proclaimed atheist and liberal pundit was accused once again of being a "hater" of those believing in God.
Unlike Kahne, Mahler stood his ground and did not ask forgiveness for the tweet.
Maher, like Kahne, really did not tweet anything wrong-it was just a personal opinion-and maybe a dumb joke. It was an appropriate mocking of Tebow and his career.
I like the talented Tebow as a quarterback, but I am getting sick of reading news about him revolving around his faith being an intricate part of his football success. Tebow has built a dual career in football and evangelizing his Christian faith that has already made him a rich man as well as an untouchable in terms of criticism of both his football skills and his wearing of his religion on his jersey sleeve. He does not have to be a great quarterback, he is already a one man, self promotional evangelical dynasty.
It's a shame that both breastfeeding and praying at sporting events are written about these days instead of stories about great athletes who play well. I would rather read more stories about the exploits of exciting athletes like rookie Norris Cole of the Miami Heat, who also grew up in a devote Christian home and attends weekly bible study, but keeps Christ off the court and his religious views out of the sports section. | Comment |
Check out my latest column in the Sun Sentinel:
"US will feel too much pain from new, pure form of Oxycodone"
Have a great week, Kurly
