As I leave my grocery store and look down at two small bags of groceries lightening my purse by a couple hundred bucks I'm not sure what I bought. Rising utility bills, insurance payments and gas are all etching into my typical daily costs. After three months of easing, the year-over-year inflation rate (excluding food and energy categories) rose to 4.7% in January from 4.6% in December, as measured by the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. These kinds of inflationary pressures are felt by many and have caused the seeking out of greener pastures outside the bay area. This trend was dramatic as the articles above discuss over the last few years, but recently the exodus has slowed as the post COVID world emerges. The demand for housing has risen dramatically amidst the lowest inventory in the last 13 years and so prices despite interest rates have not seen a decline.

The Fed is likely to raise interest rates again to combat inflation, Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told congress. Economists are still predicting a recession, but not as bad as some had thought. It is most likely that interest rates will rise farther than expected with possibly two more rate hikes this year and when the economy seems like it was stalled, the interest rates will come down. This trend of upward rates will continue as long as the job market remains stronger than anticipated.

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