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When will we see an ice-free Arctic?
What will happen after we do?
SOS #274 -- J. Morris Hicks -- (4-24-24)
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Almost twelve years ago, my friend and colleague, Dr. Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge was quoted in The Guardian about what might be about to happen in the Arctic Ocean. The article began thusly:
September 17, 2012 by John Vidal, Arctic Sunrise, 81N
"One of the world's leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years."
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"In what he calls a "global disaster" now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof. Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for "urgent" consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures."
In an email to the Guardian he says: "Climate change is no longer something we can aim to do something about in a few decades' time, and that we must not only urgently reduce CO2 emissions but must urgently examine other ways of slowing global warming, such as the various geo-engineering ideas that have been put forward."
"These include reflecting the sun's rays back into space, making clouds whiter and seeding the ocean with minerals to absorb more CO2."
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About six years after Dr. Wadhams was featured in the above article in The Guardian, I met him in New York at a conference (See image below) where he was speaking -- and I've been corresponding with him ever since.
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Although his expected timing of the ice collapse in the Arctic may have been off by a few years, he was spot on regarding the extent of the problems that we face.
Since that meeting in New York, I have been privileged to correspond with Dr. Wadhams regularly and was thrilled when I saw that he was featured prominently in the fairly recent film, Eating Our Way to Extinction.
In the photo above, we were chatting after his presentation in New York. Of course, my friend Beth Perera and I were talking to him about the enormous role that our food choices play when it comes to climate change.
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A short time later, he began receiving my SOS Memos and I am honored to report that he has opened all 152 of the memos I have posted since then.
Fast forward a few years as he has become one of the leading voices of wisdom when it comes to the supreme importance of our food choices as they relate to climate change.
For example, he appears around the two-minute mark of this fairly new video (free on YouTube). A few minutes later, he speaks convincingly about the crucial role that our "food choices" play with regard to our future as a species.
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In the above film, Dr. Wadhams makes the point that "individual food choices" by people all over the world -- play an enormous role in climate change -- and that they represent the quickest and most effective actions that all individuals in developed countries can easily make.
More News Regarding a Possible Ice-Free Arctic
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Professor Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson on X) is doing a very good job of keeping thousands of followers informed regarding the alarming temperature anomalies in the Arctic and the entire global sea surface temperatures.
This first graph below is entitled:
Daily Global Sea-Surface Temperatures
- The blue and gray lines track the temperature every day from 1982 through 2022.
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The yellow line is for 2023 -- and, as you can see, NEW, all-time records were set every day since early April of that year.
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The red line is for 2024. As you can see, we have been setting a new, all-time record every day. This is not normal!
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Now, let's take a look at just the North Atlantic.
Since the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic greatly affects the extent of melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, let's take a look at what's going on there and how that may hasten us toward that first ever, ice-free Arctic.
2024 North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature
- The green line represents the maximum sea surface temp that was ever recorded for every single day of the year -- since 1982, prior to this year.
- What about the red line? It represents the daily sea surface temperature for just 2024. Notice that that line sets a new record for that date -- every single day this year.
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That's the bad news.
The good news is that, up until now, the sea ice extent in the Arctic is not setting any new melting records. Let's take a look at the Arctic Sea Ice Extent so far this year:
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(Since the above graph is difficult to see, you should visit the actual source at the National Snow and Ice Data Center)
Here are the highlights:
As of April 22, 2024, the Arctic Sea Ice Extent is NOT currently setting any new records this year. In the graph above, the red dotted line is for the year 2012, which was the year when the Arctic Sea Ice extent reached its all-time minimum on September 15.
The gray lines in the image are difficult so see. One is a solid gray line for 2020 that was below the 2012 line for most of the year, but ended up NOT breaking the 2012 all-time low.
There is now a light gray line between the red dotted line for 2012 and the solid gray line for 2020. Right now, we're about midway between those two lines.
Various experts have been weighing in on what might happen in the Arctic later this year. Some are emphatically saying that we will NOT have an ice-free Arctic this year; others are not so sure.
On a related note, Dr. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson on X) posted this graph five days ago regarding the alarming rise in average global temperatures:
Temperature Anomaly above Pre-Industrial Baseline
This graph tracks the 365-Day Running Mean since 1940
Check out where we are right now in the upper RH corner!
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My Bottom Line
The above graph, combined with the two earlier graphs: Global Sea Surface Temperature and North Atlantic Sea Surface Temp -- are scaring the hell out of me.
The three of them combined suggest that if we don't have an ice-free Arctic Ocean this September, then the odds of having one will just keep getting greater every year.
In late September of 2012, just after the Arctic Sea Ice Extent was at the lowest level ever recorded, here is one paragraph from an article in Scientific American:
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"There is much more open ocean than there used to be," says NSIDC research scientist Walt Meier. "The volume is decreasing even faster than the extent [of surface area] as best as we can tell," based on new satellite measurements and thickness estimates provided by submarines. Once sea ice becomes thin enough, most or all of it may melt in a single summer.
That was twelve years ago. Just consider what we are now facing when it comes to the three global temperature graphs provided earlier.
There will almost certainly be an ice-free Arctic in the month of September well before 2030. And it could possibly happen this year. My message remains the same:
If we are going to have a snowball's chance in hell of slowing or even reversing climate change, we must certainly address the #1 driver -- indeed the ONLY driver that is feasibly possible to completely eliminate.
In mid-2023, I wrote all about a realistic Game Plan that I truly believe has a good chance of saving our civilization. Read all about that Game Plan and share it widely with others.
Game Plan 2024 for Reversing Climate Change.
A matter of Individual Choice
To be sure, I still believe that a massive and rapid shift to plant-based eating could possibly buy us enough time to address the many other elements of our civilization that are nowhere close to being sustainable for very much longer.
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Sadly, I don't see any kind of momentum whatsoever when it comes to shifting to a way of eating that has the possibility of buying us the time needed to address the many other elements of our modern civilization that are simply unsustainable for much longer.
As for momentum, I confessed in a a recent SOS Memo that very FEW of my 1,000+ acquaintances, including family and close friends, the people who know me best -- very FEW of them are following my lead in terms of eating plant-based for the environment and our future.
How many are following my lead? Several hundred? I wish.
Based on many observations, I estimate that the number of people in my network who have chosen to eat exclusively plant-based foods is below 40. To clarify; not 40%, but 40 people.
What that means to me is this: Even among people who have been "fully informed" about the supreme importance of humans eating the natural diet for our species -- that crucial dietary shift away from eating animals is simply not happening!
At the same time, it appears that the likelihood of a global civilization collapse within my lifetime -- is much more likely than I would have thought twenty years ago.
Back then, I had discovered that, on average, animal-based foods (on a per calorie basis) require over TEN times as much land, water AND energy as do plant-based foods.
With numbers like that, what could possibly go wrong? Now in my 80th year, it's looking more and more likely that I may have to face some major inconveniences myself -- as the collapse of our global civilization gets underway in my lifetime.
Who knows? If I live another twenty-five years, I might witness the entire global collapse of civilization in the fourth decade of this century, or earlier. No one knows for sure.
But one thing is certain! Nature will not permit us to continue our wasteful, harmful and grossly unsustainable "life as usual" for very much longer.
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Enough doom, gloom and reality...
Let's wrap up this SOS on a positive note.
I still believe that there is enough time for us humans to buy ourselves the couple of centuries we might need to completely transform our way of living -- such that it complies with Mother Nature's rules.
I believe that there is possibly "enough" time -- but only if a massive global shift to plant-based eating starts accelerating real soon. In addition to food choices, what might a fully-sustainable civilization of the future look like?
Recently, I re-read a few chapters of our 2020 book, OUTCRY. Here is a link to Chapter 10 where I described our vision for how we must live in order to give ourselves a fighting chance survive longterm as a species.
Chapter 10: Living Large in the Great Big Northern (2050)
Check out the entire book, OUTCRY, by clicking here or on the image of the book cover below. James Cameron's statement on the cover of that book is turning out to be amazingly prescient.
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I remain totally convinced that we must somehow influence hundreds of millions of people in the developed world to quickly shift to a health-promoting, world-changing, money saving, whole food, plant-based diet.
How can you help? How about sending everyone you know a FREE copy of the 2015 book that I wrote with a family physician: 4Leaf Guide to Vibrant Health.
In that little book, Dr. Graff wrote about her patients and I wrote mostly about the environment and saving money. Just read it for God's sake. It's FREE.
Here's another idea. Watch this FREE, 35-minute video and then insist that everyone you know watch it with you. The new Abbreviated version of the Eating Our Way to Extinction Video.
|  | As mentioned above, after you watch this FREE half-hour video on YouTube, read the FREE 2015 book below. As noted earlier, it's a two-hour read that I wrote with a family physician. Believe it or not, since we started giving away the e-copy of this book over a year ago, the sales of the hard copies have risen sharply. (Available on Amazon) | |
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This small, easy-to-read book will help you get started down the road to vibrant health -- while helping to ensure that the young people alive today, and future generations, will have a much better chance of enjoying comfortable and meaningful lives.
About half the chapters are about promoting "vibrant health" for the biosphere that keeps us alive.
To be sure, this little book is still as relevant as ever. It will answer many questions you may have about moving rapidly to the whole food, plant-based method of feeding yourself.
This special e-book version is absolutely FREE: Just click 4Leaf Guide to Vibrant Health.
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In closing, my colleagues and I have concluded that by returning quickly to the natural diet for our species -- we just might be able to buy ourselves the time needed (about 200 years) to address and resolve the plethora of unsustainable elements of our rapidly expanding, wasteful and harmful civilization. | |
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Conveniently, we have a game plan for making that happen!
It was fully explored in SOS Memo #245 that was posted on 11-28-23.
Click the link below to read all about that plan, then share it widely. Share it as if the lives of your children, and their children, depended on it. Because they almost certainly do!
Below this link, as in all of my SOS Memos of late, I highlight a few key elements of that game plan -- one that consists of harnessing the power and reach of the handful of big-picture journalists in the world who have the courage and integrity to just do the right thing for the future of humanity.
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Game Plan for Reversing Climate Change.
The opening question is this...
What would happen if the global media were to become aware of the simple fact that animal agriculture is, by far, the leading driver of climate change and the ONLY driver that is theoretically possible to completely eliminate by 2030?
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At zero cost! How's that for a benefit? Not only does it cost far less to eat plant-based, there are countless benefits that will result from our return to the natural diet for our species. As people begin consuming mostly whole, plant-based foods, most chronic diseases will be reversed -- and the world's cost of healthcare (disease management) could be slashed by over 50%.
Most Importantly. The beauty of this approach is that we don't have to deal with the world's food growers and processors, the world's self-serving healthcare Industry, the many rogue governments and international alliances (UN, UNFAO) or all of the academic entities who are supported financially by the animal food producers and drug marketers. We don't need ANY of their support to get this done!
We simply take this life-saving message directly to the people! The food producers WILL deliver what they demand!
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Individual food choices alone -- all over the world -- can make this happen. When enough people shift to plant-based eating, the food producers, for financial reasons, will respond quickly -- as they urgently start producing only what we consumers are now choosing to eat.
At that time, we will have triggered a rapid global dismantling of what is BY FAR -- the single largest driver of climate change: animal agriculture
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The stakes of this game are too daunting to ignore. And it's likely that we only have a few more years to get this right!
This climate change solution is simple! Getting billions of people to quickly join in that solution is a very difficult task!
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To get that ball rolling, how can we get this group of seven news anchors (and/or many others) prepared to urgently begin reporting the complete truth about the direct relationship between our food choices, climate change and the future of humanity? Read on...
The man pictured below has the knowledge on this topic and he has the world's ear. Will he do all of humanity a huge favor and agree to facilitate the jumpstarting of the game plan described herein? Several members of his staff know that we are standing by -- ready, willing and able to assist him as needed.
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For the record, I am confident that Mayor Adams of New York City, should he choose to ignite the flame (in this Game Plan) -- will someday enjoy an exceptionally rarified place in the annals of history.
He knows better than most what we should be eating -- for our own health -- and for the health of the biosphere that keeps us alive.
He's also mayor of the global media capital AND the world's most influential city.
In his book above -- he writes about reversing his own type 2 diabetes and partial blindness -- by making food choices (whole plants) that deliver the bonus benefit of preserving Mother Nature's ability to keep us alive.
How convenient is that? In closing, it's all about what we choose to eat. Let's just do it, already! We're about to run out of time.
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For billions of innocent children...let's all work urgently together to promote health, hope and harmony on planet Earth.
Sincerely, Jim
PS: Someone asked me why I repeat myself from week to week in these memos. It's because I'm making sure that each message can be fully understood by all of the first-time SOS readers.
J. Morris Hicks — hpjmh.com
500 Bank Street, Suite 215
New London, CT 06320
jmorrishicks@me.com
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PS: How can YOU make a difference?
1st: Become a healthy vegan -- making sure that over 80% of your calories are derived from whole, plant-based foods. As such, you will be doing your part in dismantling the leading driver of climate change: global animal agriculture. As a personal bonus, you will get healthier, eliminate most prescription drugs, lose weight and save money at the same time.
2nd: Start "walking the talk" of sustainable living. Let your actions do the talking for your friends and family. My thoughts on that process are in this updated SOS Memo #200 from early 2023, when I moved into my delightful 443 square feet, about halfway between New York and Boston -- on the busiest passenger rail line in the USA.
3rd: Check out the FREE stuff in the appendix below and start sharing all of this info with your friends & family.
4th: Schedule a FREE Zoom call with me and your group. Contact me at jmorrishicks@me.com to arrange.
In the APPENDIX below, you can read about what we must do to understand much more about the climate dilemma in which we find ourselves -- along with what it will likely take to prevent a collapse of civilization.
This appendix can help you get that done:
Appendix to SOS Memos
(lots of data, FREE books, scientific reports, videos & more)
You can join my mailing list and find all previous
postings by visiting this SOS Memos page.
Again, my primary website is hpjmh.com -- featuring a powerful summary that appears on the landing page. Click the link below for my one-page bio summary:
J. Morris Hicks, engineer. writer. big picture guy.
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Want to get started nurturing your own health
and the health of our planet?
Take our dietary survey at 4leafsurvey.com (2 min). With your answers to 12 multiple choice questions, the survey provides an estimate as to what percent of your daily calories are being derived from whole, plant-based foods.
Over 80% from whole plants = "4Leaf Level" of eating
(The average American or European gets less than 7%)
Click to learn all about this dietary assessment tool:
About the 4Leaf Survey
For much more about 4Leaf, visit 4leafprogram.com
Also: Link to the FREE e-copy of the The 4Leaf Guide
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