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2023 State of the Climate

"Entering uncharted territory" says new Oxford Report

SOS #239 -- J. Morris Hicks -- (11-1-23)

Dr. William J. Ripple of Oregon State University is the lead author of a brand new, peer reviewed, scientific paper (from Oxford Academic) -- that was published on October 24, 2023 in Bio Science.


In 2020, Ripple led The World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency, declaring with more than 11,000 scientist co-signatories from 153 countries that "Planet Earth is facing a climate emergency" and presenting six steps for avoiding the worst effects of climate change.

The new paper is entitled: The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory


Beginning as follows, it delivers some terrifying news:


Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in an uncharted territory. For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions because of escalating global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities that release harmful greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up.


We are seeing the manifestation of those predictions as an alarming and unprecedented succession of climate records are broken, causing profoundly distressing scenes of suffering to unfold.


We are entering an unfamiliar domain regarding our climate crisis, a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity.


In the present report, we display a diverse set of vital signs of the planet and the potential drivers of climate change and climate-related responses first presented by Ripple and Wolf and colleagues (2020), who declared a climate emergency, now with more than 15,000 scientist signatories.


The trends reveal new all-time climate-related records and deeply concerning patterns of climate-related disasters. At the same time, we report minimal progress by humanity in combating climate change.


Given these distressing developments, our goal is to communicate climate facts and policy recommendations to scientists, policymakers, and the public. It is the moral duty of us scientists and our institutions to clearly alert humanity of any potential existential threat and to show leadership in taking action.

Without mentioning a single word about the obvious need to urgently expedite humanity's shift toward plant-based eating, here are few of their dire conclusions:


  • The effects of global warming are progressively more severe, and possibilities such as a worldwide societal breakdown are feasible and dangerously under-explored (Kemp et al. 2022).


  • By the end of this century, an estimated 3 to 6 billion individuals—approximately one-third to one-half of the global population—might find themselves confined beyond the livable region, encountering severe heat, limited food availability, and elevated mortality rates because of the effects of climate change (Lenton et al. 2023).


  • Big problems need big solutions. Therefore, we must shift our perspective on the climate emergency from being just an isolated environmental issue to a systemic, existential threat.


  • Although global heating is devastating, it represents only one aspect of the escalating and interconnected environmental crisis that we are facing (e.g., biodiversity loss, fresh water scarcity, pandemics).


The chart below tracks global average temperatures since 1850 -- accelerating, as you can see, in the last 15 years:

We need policies that target the underlying issues of ecological overshoot where the human demand on Earth's resources results in overexploitation of our planet and biodiversity decline (figures 5a, S5; McBain et al. 2017). As long as humanity continues to exert extreme pressure on the Earth, any attempted climate-only solutions will only redistribute this pressure.


To address the overexploitation of our planet, we challenge the prevailing notion of endless growth and overconsumption by rich countries and individuals as unsustainable and unjust (Rockström et al. 2023).


Read on. Rather than encourage an urgent shift away from eating animal-based foods, they instead call for the actions below that will take at least several decades to even get started:


We advocate for reducing resource overconsumption; reducing, reusing, and recycling waste in a more circular economy; and prioritizing human flourishing and sustainability.


We emphasize climate justice and fair distribution of the costs and benefits of climate action, particularly for vulnerable communities (Gupta et al. 2023).


We call for a transformation of the global economy to prioritize human well-being and to provide for a more equitable distribution of resources (Hickel et al. 2021).


Reducing human population. We also call to stabilize and gradually decrease the human population with gender justice through voluntary family planning and by supporting women's and girls’ education and rights, which reduces fertility rates and raises the standard of living (Bongaarts and O'Neill 2018).


As scientists, we are increasingly being asked to tell the public the truth about the crises we face in simple and direct terms. The truth is that we are shocked by the ferocity of the extreme weather events in 2023.


So why don't they tell the international public the truth about the fact that animal agriculture contributes more to climate change than ALL other factors combined?


Instead they continue with more fear and wringing of hands:


We are afraid of the uncharted territory that we have now entered.


Conditions are going to get very distressing and potentially unmanageable for large regions of the world, with the 2.6°C warming expected over the course of the century, even if the self-proposed national emissions reduction commitments of the Paris Agreement are met (UNEP 2022b).


We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical conflict.


Massive suffering due to climate change is already here, and we have now exceeded many safe and just Earth system boundaries, imperiling stability and life-support systems (Rockström et al. 2023).


As we will soon bear witness to failing to meet the Paris agreement's aspirational 1.5°C goal, the significance of immediately curbing fossil fuel use and preventing every further 0.1°C increase in future global heating cannot be overstated.


Rather than focusing only on carbon reduction and climate change, addressing the underlying issue of ecological overshoot will give us our best shot at surviving these challenges in the long run.


This is our moment to make a profound difference for all life on Earth, and we must embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of change that will stand the test of time.

As for addressing economic overshoot

being our best shot -- we should begin by encouraging every human on Earth to shift to eating plant-based foods as soon as possible.


That move alone, if taken by enough people, will possibly buy us enough time to get around to repairing the plethora of other desperate situations that are covered in this paper.


Given the fact that hardly anyone in authority is motivated to shine a bright light on this sad situation -- it leaves that crucial task to us individual citizens.

But we need some help.


Our vision for getting some powerful help is my belief that a well-known, greatly respected journalist might be capable of "waking up" the entire global media (the 4th Estate) to this most crucial situation in the history of humanity.


That's where Mayor Eric Adams of New York comes in. Take a look at what he had to say about the environment on page 116 in this 2020 book that he wrote about reversing his diabetes and partial blindness.


You can read all about that journalist -- and the process that I have in mind -- in the fairly recent SOS Memo below.


It features a globally respected journalist who just happens to be a New Yorker; therefore, she is one of the mayor's constituents and will surely join him in his office for a meeting if he so beckons.

SOS Memo #219, July 18, 2023

Envisioned Global Initiative with the Mayor of New York

Finally, what can YOU do?


Become a healthy vegan -- making sure that well over 80% of your calories are derived from whole, plant-based foods. As such, you will be doing your part to dismantle the global animal agriculture business. Just encourage and help others do the same.


In the APPENDIX below, you can read all about what we must do to understand much more about the climate dilemma in which we find ourselves -- along with what it will likely take to prevent a collapse of civilization before 2050.


This appendix can help you get that done:

Appendix to SOS Memos

(lots of data, free books, scientific reports, videos & more)

You can join my mailing list and find all of my previous postings by visiting the SOS Memos page on my website


Want some FREE professional help getting started eating whole, unprocessed plants? My friends at Rochester Lifestyle Medicine may have just what the doctor ordered. Check it out.

  Sincerely, J. Morris (Jim) Hicks

jmorrishicks@me.com


Primary website, hpjmh.com, with a powerful summary that appears on the landing page. It's all about...


Promoting health, hope & harmony

on planet Earth

PS: Want to get started nurturing your own health

and the health of our planet?


Take our dietary survey at 4leafsurvey.com (2 min). With your answers to 12 multiple choice questions, the survey provides an estimate as to what percent of your daily calories are derived from whole, plant-based foods.


Over 80% from whole plants = "4Leaf Level" of eating

(The average American or European gets less than 7%)


Click to learn all about this dietary assessment tool:

About the 4Leaf Survey


For much more about 4Leaf, visit 4leafprogram.com