SOS #236 Exponential Growth. Good or Bad?

Exponential Growth. Good or Bad?

What does it look like? Can it be a good thing?

SOS #236 -- J. Morris Hicks -- (10-22-23)

Exponential growth looks like a hockey stick -- and the graph below illustrates what kind of growth in temperature and CO2 parts per million has taken place for more than two millennia.

Notice that both measurements turned exponentially upwards along about the time I was born in 1945. Before that, for about one thousand years, the temperature was actually trending downwards and would have taken this planet to the next ice age -- had we humans not intervened.

Now temperatures and CO2 ppm are tracking exponentially upwards. The good news is that we prevented the next Ice Age.

The bad news is that we're now on track for a host of climate catastrophes, mass starvation, collapse of civilization and the possible extinction of humanity before 2100.

Hockey Stick Growth (Since 1850) in

Global Average Temperatures

Here's a look at another example of exponential, hockey stick kind of growth in global average temperature. According to this graph, it looks like it went "exponential" circa 1960, when I was in high school.

Annual % Growth in

Global Plant-Based Eating Habits

Here's where it would be nice to see a runaway exponential rate of growth in the direction of eating much more plants and much fewer animal-based foods.

The chart below was published by the World Economic Forum last year and shows the % of the population in ten countries identifying as "vegetarian" -- from 2018 to 2022.

Notice that India, with by far the largest percentage of vegetarians -- dropped six full percentage points. Likewise, in China, vegetarians nearly dropped in half from 9.6% to 5.4% during the study period. -- while the other nine countries were about 50-50 with some indicating modest increases, like in the USA.

Most other countries showed little if any significant change.

The problem with the above graph is regarding the confusion about what it really means to be a "vegetarian."

Let's begin with the typical definition: a person who does not eat meat, but sometimes eats other animal products, especially for moral, religious, or health reasons.

By that definition, almost a half billion people in India, those who identify as vegetarians -- are more than likely consuming huge amounts of cow's milk, cheese, yogurt, ice-cream and eggs. If everyone in the world stopped eating meat but continued to eat those four categories of foods -- we would not solve our climate crisis.

What we really need is a complete elimination

of all animal-based foods! Soon!

Hence, we need to promote a "healthy vegan" diet -- one that is absent of any animal products AND consists mostly of whole, plant-based foods.

Here's what a "Healthy Vegan" diet" looks like, from the World Economic Forum piece:

Let's take a look at an exercise in the exponential growth of healthy vegan eating all over the world,

My guesstimate is that less than 2% of the global population is eating a healthy vegan diet. Therefore:

Hence, my conservative estimate is that about 100 million people worldwide are now eating a healthy vegan diet.
Let's assume that all of those 100 million people, each year, convinces just one person to join them in a way of eating that makes them healthier, saves them money AND plays a huge role in the complete elimination of the leading driver of climate change.
By the end of 2024, there will be 200 million "healthy vegans."

Each year, every "healthy vegan"

recruits just one additional person to join her.

By the end of 2025, there will be 400 million
By the end of 2026, there will be 800 million.
By the end of 2027, there will be 1.6 Billion.
By the end of 2028, there will be 3.2 Billion.
By the end of 2029, there will be 6.2 Billion.
By mid 2030, all humans will be "healthy vegans."

Now that's the kind of exponential growth that I'm talking about. Click here to watch a 2-minute video illustrating the incredible power of the exponential function.

Hey, Bill Clinton famously became a "healthy vegan" once upon a time. If he can do it, anyone can.

All of the above is possible, but unfortunately, it is not very likely -- not without a great deal of much needed assistance from the 4th estate, the global media. I sincerely believe that such crucial assistance is our only chance.

Simply encouraging people to eat less meat, dairy, eggs and fish on a planet that is adding six million people every month -- is not working. And, it's not likely to ever work. And now we're running out of time.

Further, we can never depend on elected officials to ever take a stand on this controversial topic. It would be political suicide and they know it.

That leaves us with the 4th Estate.

In the link below, I describe a process that just might work.

All we need is one hour of the New York mayor's time. During that hour in his office, he can launch a meeting of five or six exceptional individuals: an internationally respected nutritional scientist, a disease-reversing medical doctor in NYC, a systems engineer who helped invent the internet and a Princeton meteorologist who knows all about the leading driver of climate change.

The mission of the above group will be to fully enlighten one internationally respected journalist about the most crucial topic in the history of humanity -- the topic regarding what is very likely the ONLY way we we can possibly slow or stop climate change enough -- to prevent the collapse of civilization along with the rapid demise of Homo sapiens.

That highly respected journalist, a NYC resident, has built her stellar reputation by doing what she describes as always following her heart and her gut. Never has such a quality been needed more than it is right now.

Envisioned Global Initiative with the Mayor of New York

Final Word Today

from Professor Eliot Jacobson

Just before finalizing this SOS Memo, I received this tweet from Eliot Jacobson, accompanying the chart below:

Breaking News!

Yesterday (October 16) the global sea surface temperature anomaly hit a new record high of 0.702°C above the 1991-2020 mean, beating the previous record anomaly of 0.700°C set on September 9th. This is a 'Code UFB' event.

(un-effing believable)

It would seem from the looks of the graph above, that breaking records when it comes to global sea surface temps -- this is a trend that is not going away.

In closing, what can YOU do?

Eat Plants! Encourage and help others do the same and let the exponential function work for you and the future of your children.

In the APPENDIX below, you can read all about what we must do to understand more about the climate dilemma in which we find ourselves -- along with what it will likely take to prevent a collapse of civilization before 2050.

This appendix can help you get that done:

Appendix to SOS Memos

(lots of data, free books, scientific reports, videos & more)

You can join my mailing list and find all of my previous postings by visiting the SOS Memos page on my website.

Want some FREE professional help getting started on the road to vibrant health? My friends at Rochester Lifestyle Medicine may have just what the doctor ordered. Check it out.

Sincerely, J. Morris (Jim) Hicks

jmorrishicks@me.com

Primary website, hpjmh.com, with a powerful summary that appears on the landing page. It's all about...

Promoting health, hope & harmony

on planet Earth

PS: Want to get started nurturing your own health

and the health of our planet?

Take our dietary survey at 4leafsurvey.com (2 min). With your answers to 12 multiple choice questions, the survey provides an estimate as to what percent of your daily calories are derived from whole, plant-based foods.

Over 80% from whole plants = "4Leaf Level" of eating

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