The Urgency Now is Palpable!

Terrifying new paper regarding our future as a species

SOS #227 -- J. Morris Hicks -- (9-12-23)

Last week, my good friend and colleague, Dr. Sailesh Rao, posted some very alarming information regarding a new paper (August 11, 2023) by Professor Emeritus William Rees of the University of British Columbia.

Sailesh writes: "The urgency is now palpable. In his new paper on ecological overshoot, Professor Rees makes the case that through our global industrial enterprise, we humans are contaminating and depleting the biophysical basis of our own existence."

"He shows that if we continue on our current course, a major human population correction is inevitable within the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren. Rees estimates that the population “correction” would lead to a world with as few as 100 million humans to a maximum of about 3 billion humans."

"In other words, 5 billion to 7.9 billion humans are projected to die in the next few decades in order to maintain our current average wasteful lifestyles indefinitely."

Dr. William Rees is a population ecologist, ecological economist and is known as the father of ecological accounting.

• (Note: Population ecology is a sub-field of ecology that deals with the dynamics of species population and how these populations interact with the environment.)

He’s Professor Emeritus and former Director of the University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning and is a founding member and former president of the Canadian Society for Ecological Economics.

Let's take a look at the abstract of his latest paper, sentence by sentence:

Link to Prof. Rees new paper

"Homo sapiens has evolved to reproduce exponentially, expand geographically, and consume all available resources."

"For most of humanity’s evolutionary history, such expansionist tendencies have been countered by negative feedback."

"However, the scientific revolution and the use of fossil fuels reduced many forms of negative feedback, enabling us to realize our full potential for exponential growth."

"This natural capacity is being reinforced by growth-oriented neoliberal economics—nurture complements nature."

"Problem: the human enterprise is a ‘dissipative structure’ and sub-system of the ecosphere—it can grow and maintain itself only by consuming and dissipating available energy and resources extracted from its host system, the ecosphere, and discharging waste back into its host."

"The population increase from one to eight billion, and >100-fold expansion of real GWP in just two centuries on a finite planet, has thus propelled modern techno-industrial society into a state of advanced overshoot."

"We are consuming and polluting the biophysical basis of our own existence. Climate change is the best-known symptom of overshoot, but mainstream ‘solutions’ will actually accelerate climate disruption and worsen overshoot."

"Humanity is exhibiting the characteristic dynamics of a one-off population boom–bust cycle. The global economy will inevitably contract and humanity will suffer a major population ‘correction’ in this century."

Later in the paper, Dr. Rees provides a Bottom Line in the Summary & Conclusions Section:

From his Bottom line: "Any reasonable interpretation of previous histories, current trends, and complex systems dynamics would hold that global modern techno-industrial culture (MTI) is beginning to unravel and that the one-off human population boom is destined to bust." 

"Arguably, in these circumstances, wide-spread societal collapse cannot be averted—collapse is not a problem to be solved, but rather the final stage of a cycle to be endured."

"Global civilizational collapse will almost certainly be accompanied by a major human population ‘correction’. In the best of all possible worlds, the whole transition might actually be managed in ways that prevent unnecessary suffering of millions (billions?) of people, but this is not happening—and cannot happen—in a world blind to its own predicament."

Fortunately, there is one piece of good news in his final Summary and Conclusions. Dr. Rees writes:

Barring a nuclear holocaust, it is unlikely that Homo sapiens will go extinct. Wealthy, technologically advanced nations potentially have more resilience and may be insulated, at least temporarily, from the worst consequences of global simplification.

In the worst case, the billion (?) or so survivors will face a return to stone-age life-styles. Should this be humanity’s future, it will not be urban sophisticates that survive but rather the pre-adapted rural poor and remaining pockets of indigenous peoples.

Here is My Own Bottom Line

I choose to believe that we still

have a chance -- albeit a small one.

Some environmental experts, like Dr. Rees, have concluded that we have already passed the point of no return when it comes to our civilization. And they are probably right.

But most of those experts do not seem to have a realistic understanding of what could happen if there were a massive, well-organized, urgently executed global initiative to totally eliminate animal agriculture.

In so doing, I am confident (perhaps overly so) that with a massive dietary shift toward plant-based eating -- we could buy ourselves another two or three centuries during which we might fully address all six of the unsustainable situations that I have listed below.

If we can get all of that done, I am confident that Mother Nature will welcome us back with open arms -- as we quickly learn, once again, to live in harmony with all of nature.

As for plant-based eating, it takes a few months to get the hang of it, but after you do, you'll never want to eat anything that was once part of an animal ever again. Here are two FREE books that will help you get started:

The first one provides you with a simple guide for why and how you should eat plant-based for your own health:

• 2015 The 4Leaf Guide to Vibrant Health by Dr. Graff and me. Covers human health benefits of plant-based eating.
• 2020 OUTCRY, covers the environmental WHY, regarding what we should be eating. Co-author was Stuart Scott.

I'm now in my 21st year of eating whole, plant-based foods at every meal -- and I absolutely LOVE it. Additionally, the thought of eating animals ever again is now repulsive to me.

I want to believe that the future of humanity surviving and thriving longterm is a simple matter of...

Buying Ourselves Enough Time to Learn to Live Sustainably Again

If enough people shift quickly enough to eating 100% plant-based foods, I am confident that we can buy ourselves the few centuries we need to get back to living in harmony with nature.

We just need to resolve the six grossly unsustainable situations listed below. All were covered in greater detail in a previous SOS Memo, but they need to be repeated often:

Situation 1. Overpopulation. At best, it will take several centuries to get the human population down to a theoretically sustainable level of around four billion people (my own, non-scientific guesstimate based on how efficiently we are able to live). As of 2023, we're still adding a net six million people to the world's population every month (births minus deaths).

If we get started in earnest now on "managing" population growth -- it could take some of the pressure off of the "other" five situations that follow. 

Unsustainable Situation # 2: Millions of new meat eaters every month. In addition to the billions of people who are regularly eating meat, dairy, eggs and/or fish in the world -- in developing nations, there are another few million people emerging from poverty enough each month to start eating the animal-based foods that the more prosperous folks have been consuming for a long time.

Unsustainable Situation # 3: a never-ending growth economy.

Clearly, our global economic system (capitalism) system must be replaced with one that answers first to Mother Nature. But that will take time -- along with enough leaders who recognize the necessity for -- and also have the courage to take action. We covered that topic in this free chapter of OUTCRY: Earthonomics Replaces Capitalism

Unsustainable Situation # 4: The way we live in the developed world. No matter what kind of energy we use, our industrial civilization is a heat engine that is getting hotter all the time. In addition to getting a handle on overpopulation, we also must totally re-engineer almost everything about how we live. Read Chapter 9 of OUTCRY: Crucial Importance of Systemic Change

Unsustainable Situation # 5: Snail pace movement to a vegan world. Even though we're regularly hearing about studies like the recent one from the University of Oxford: Vegan diet massively cuts environmental damage -there is zero widespread urgency to "go vegan." In fact, here's a troubling factoid: there is now a steadily growing population of ex-vegans in the developed world.

Unsustainable Situation # 6. Complete absence of responsible global leadership. In light of all of the above, it's difficult for me to believe that no well-known world leaders or environmentalists have taken a loud, clear, never-wavering public stand on the only primary driver of climate change that could theoretically be completely eliminated -- by individual humans everywhere simply changing what they eat.

If only there was widespread integrity and leadership -- all over the world -- regarding this most crucial topic, all of the above "situations" could be addressed in short order.

****************

Obviously, all of those "unsustainable situations" must eventually be addressed if we are to survive the massive population correction predicted by Dr. Rees.

Clearly, we have made no progress to date in any of them. 

Where does that leave us? This practical-minded engineer has concluded that the ONLY way we are likely to be able to successfully address all six of the above "situations" -- is to grab the "low hanging fruit" now -- and buy ourselves the few hundred years we're going to need to address all six unsustainable situations.

If we are to have any chance of surviving much longer as a species, it is time to begin urgently dismantling the entire animal agriculture industry.

To do that, we must convince billions of people everywhere to start eating nothing but health-promoting, plant-based foods which, on a per calorie basis, require less than 1/10th as much land, water and energy as do animal-based foods.

Our Proposed Initiative with the Mayor of New York City, Katie Couric -- and four scientific & medical experts

The odds are stacked against us and the initiative described in the link above may not work -- but, for all of the innocent children of the world, we simply must give it our best shot.

It could be a win-win-win proposition for everyone. Not only might might we be buying the time needed, but we will also be saving money, losing weight and reversing any number of chronic diseases that may be plaguing us.

Sincerely, J. Morris (Jim) Hicks

jmorrishicks@me.com

PS: Scroll down to the Big Picture Documents and Video Section (following the FREE books) where you will find links to a plethora of references regarding the validity and the urgency of the information contained herein.

Links to the five most recent SOS Memos are provided here for your convenience:

• SOS #222 (8-8-23) Have we passed the climate change tipping point?
• SOS #223 (8-15-23) Troubling Trio of Recent Climate Records! Oort!
• SOS #224 (8-22-23) Doomer with a Sense of Humor — A Rarity for Sure
• SOS #225 (8-29-23)  “Smelling the Roses” — But Not Giving Up
• SOS #226 (9-5-23) Simplifying the Reversal of Climate Change

Finally, are you among the rare group of humans who are making the direct connection between our lifestyle choices and our future as a species on this planet? If so, I would love to collaborate with you. Contact me and tell me your story: jmorrishicks@me.com.

Do you want to do your part to help people get healthy...while simultaneously slowing, stopping or even reversing climate change? Then, share this SOS Memo and the free books below with everyone you know.

Please contact me about arranging a FREE "live" Zoom talk for your group. They will get much more out of my talk if they have read the FREE books below in advance.

As for making our stand on the only planet in the universe capable of keeping us alive, our "Big Picture" section below will provide you with handy reference materials on this most crucial of all topics.