WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

Sam and I read ...  a lot.  One of our primary job functions is to decipher as much of the information that is available, review the charts and make the best decisions we can with the information we have.  It is a time consuming but very interesting process.  It is always striking when advisors/technicians/financial writers we respect have totally different takes on the same market conditions.  That has been much the case for the last couple of years.  One of those writers that we have come to value is Carter Worth (previously of Oppenheimer and now with Sterne Agee).  His most recent commentary dated yesterday listed no fewer than 16 major issues with the current market and detailed them all.  In fact, he noted that space issues precluded him from naming more.  To name just a sampling of his issues - emerging markets are virtually in free fall, copper (often a canary in the coal mine) is down 14% year to date, major banks from Citigroup to JP to Deutsche Bank are all down double digits for the year, gold is rallying, REITS and utilities (defensive sectors are rallying assertively), etc...  You get the idea.  Despite the recent new highs for the S&P and the bull market trend of the US markets, all is not well.  While this situation can persist for longer than any of us may imagine, something has to and will give eventually.  As we have stated here ad nauseam, eventually the economy (the global economy included) and the markets will come together.  Either the economy will strengthen and catch up or the markets will falter and fall to match the underlying fundamentals.  For now, the bull market lives on but that can change in an instant and we are watching closely.  Things to keep an eye on this week are developments on the Russian front, the Fed meeting and press conference on Wednesday and the expiration of options on Friday.  Any of these could lead to surprises in market activity.   

HOW WE ARE DOING

For those of you not paying attention to the madness of March, Warren Buffett, Quicken and Yahoo Sports have put a rather large carrot for those that like to fill out NCAA brackets for the upcoming tournament.  For anyone that can pick a perfect bracket - picking each of the 63 tournament games correctly - Buffett and friends will give you one billion dollars.  What are the odds?  According to Buffett the odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 9.2 quintillion (that is 9 followed by 18 zeroes).  However the odds increase drastically to 1 in 128 billion if you  actually know something about basketball.  To put those odds in perspective, one would have a better chance of picking your favorite pro baseball team to win the next 7 world series or predicting the correct political party in every presidential election from 2016 to 2060 or flipping a coin and coming up with 37 heads in a row.  Farfetched?  Yes.  But I am saying that you have a chance!  I am reminded of fishing trips with Sam when I was a young boy.  Sauger fishing in 34 degree weather, with a slight drizzle, and wanting desperately to just go home, I would hear "you can't catch a fish with your line in the boat."  My sentiments exactly.  So cast your line and fill out your brackets.  You can do so here.  And remember, we will gladly help you to manage your winnings.  Go Vols!  Let the madness begin.

Sam and Bo

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below. 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright � 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

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