INTRODUCTION
- Myanmar plunged into further chaos after the junta attempted to conscript civilians into the military, sending shock waves among the Myanmar youths. Now tens of thousands of youth are trying to flee the country, mostly to neighboring countries.
- As Thailand is the country easiest to flee many Burmese youths are migrating to Thailand using visa-free facilities for the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Surprisingly, Myanmar youth also find Communist Laos as a safe haven for them. Where they can find jobs in the Chinese-invested projects.
- It will be very interesting to know what is actually going on in the minds of Burmese Generals sitting in Nay Pyi Taw at this stage. If they are thinking from a perspective of Burma nationalism, they may think the pride of Myanmar people has never been so low as it is today. Where tens of thousands of Burmese take refuge in its historical nemesis neighboring Thailand. The policies of the junta are impacting so badly on the people of Myanmar who are willing to work as illegal migrant workers in Thailand. And they find Communist Laos safer than home for them.
- A recent report by the International Investigation Mechanism on Myanmar (IIMM) which investigated the atrocities committed by the Myanmar military against Muslim Rohingyas in Northern Rakhine State said in a recently released report that the Burmese military was responsible for stroke hatred against Rohingya led to genocide in 2017. Now under the conscript law, the same junta is reaching out to Rohingya communities to join the military, they expect the same Rohingya whom the Burmese killed mercilessly will be forced to serve in the same military. There is so far no voice of opposition from the Muslim leaders in Myanmar in protest of the junta’s decision to recruit Rohingya and Muslims into the Myanmar military.
- During March, the junta lost more territories in Rakhine, Kayin and Kachin states, also hundreds of more junta troops were killed or surrendered. As a result of these military debacles, the junta now has no or limited land access to all the countries Myanmar shares the border.
- As the concept of Burmese nationalism, based on which the Burmese army was established with the aid of fascist Japan in 1941, is now in the doldrums, its top leadership still survive in power somehow, however, an informed source in Nay Pyi Taw may be able to confirm that their days are numbered.
CONTEXT
o Conscription Law
The introduction of this law is a paradigm shift for the Myanmar military, which since 1962 prohibits members of ethnic and religious minority groups from joining its ranks. Now, they are so desperate with the recent losses of troops, that it is even ready to recruit the members of the Rohingya communities, which it said are not originally from Myanmar. Among other recruits after the law is passed include Muslims from other parts of the country.
At one stage Myanmar military has been popular among Myanmar youth to join as an easy opportunity to earn and to get powerful positions. Now the entire concept has been changed, Myanmar youths even prefer to work as illegal migrant workers in neighboring countries instead of joining the Myanmar military.
For the leaders of the minority religions in Myanmar especially Muslims they should tell the junta not to target Muslim youths in its conscription drive. Muslims were once shunned for joining the military or civil service.
According to an estimate by the United States Institute of Peace released in February this year, the junta must have lost at least 20,000 soldiers over the past year, and the significant numbers of troops lost after “Operation 1027” was launched by three rebel groups in Northern Shan State last October. The Institute estimates that the number of troops currently serving in the Myanmar military could be 130,000. It was not known how many of them were combatant soldiers.
o China and Operation 1027
The junta urgently introduced the conscription law in early February, as several of its soldiers were killed or fled after a strong concerted military operation by the Chinese-backed ethnic armed organizations with the name Operation 1027 in October last year. The military operation by the Brotherhood Alliance, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), has made significant territory gains in Northern Shan State from the junta forces. It includes a key border trading post Laukkaing.
As per a recent report published by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), “Operation 1027" would not have been feasible without Beijing’s acquiescence. Much of the combat took place adjacent to the border, something China has long been keen to tamp down given its aversion to spill over into Chinese territory and to refugee flows”.
The junta is also facing major offensives in Kachin State, where the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) launched an offensive on 7 March, in which it has made significant military gains. The area where the fighting is taking place in Kachin State is close to China and KIA has also direct communication with China. It is still not clear what role Chin might have played in the attacks by KIA.
The regime also facing attacks along the Myanmar- Thai border, in the country’s southeastern parts in recent weeks, where the Kayin National Union has captured towns in the fighting.
o Min Aung Hlaing vowed to take back lost territory.
Min Aung Hlaing will probably go down in history as the worst leader of the Myanmar military. However, he is still surviving in the position, and he recently vowed to take back the territories the regime lost to the ethnic armies. In an address to the nation marking the Armed Forces Day on 27 March Min Aung Hlaing said with the support of new recruits the military will launch offensives to take back these territories.
As a military general, he might know that it is next to impossible for the Myanmar military to retake the positions it lost to the ethnic armies since the military coup. As a politician, Min Aung Hlaing must have started to find a solution for his survival.
In the same Armed Forces Day speech, Min Aung Hlaing also vowed to hold the elections in the areas where it has control, to give some sort of legitimacy to his regime.
But the question remains, will Min Aung Hlaing survive until July this year when the regime will have to extend its mandate again under the 2009 Constitution?
o Is it too little too late from the UN investigation team?
The Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) published two analytical reports on 27 March. One report details the Myanmar military’s covert Facebook network that systematically distributed hate speech against the Rohingya at the time of the 2017 clearance operations.
The second report examines the response of Myanmar state authorities to allegations of sexual and gender-based crimes committed by security forces against the Rohingya. This report concludes that the authorities failed in their duty under international law to investigate and punish these acts.
Nearly 7 years after the genocide and sexual violence against the Rohingya minority, the UN team came up with these reports which put all the blame on the military junta.
The conclusion section of the first report on Facebook said.
The Myanmar military spread material designed to instil fear and hatred of the Rohingya minority. It accomplished this by creating a clandestine network of Pages on a social media site with the potential to reach an audience of millions. This campaign of hatred was ongoing at the very time that many Rohingya villages were burned and thousands of Rohingya men, women and children were beaten, sexually assaulted and/or killed, and continued as hundreds of thousands of Rohingya were forced to flee from their homes. The evidence from this analytical project conclusively shows that rather than taking all steps to prevent the violence and protect its people, the Myanmar military conducted a social media campaign that excused and promoted violence against the Rohingya minority.
The second report on the sexual and gender-based crimes against the Rohingya concluded that such crime was “an integral part of the 2016 and 2017 clearance operations. There is abundant credible evidence and testimony that Myanmar security forces committed a massive number of sexual and gender-based crimes during the 2016 and 2017 clearance operations.255 The Government of Myanmar and Tatmadaw authorities were on notice and had to have known from the victim and eyewitness testimony, accounts of medical and psychosocial providers who treated the victims, media reporting and international condemnation, that their security forces were facing credible accusations of having committed sexual and gender-based crimes.
Yet the evidence shows not a single Tatmadaw soldier or BGP officer was charged or prosecuted for any of these crimes. Furthermore, no commander was dismissed, demoted, or sanctioned for the failure to stop or punish those committing these offences. Not a single victim of rape, or other sexual or other gender-based crime has received any justice for the crimes they suffered.
The UN spent nearly 7 years reaching these conclusions which otherwise were known to most of the people in Myanmar that the Myanmar military was the only force that had planned and executed the Rohingya genocide.
Instead of spending years and tens of thousands of public taxpayers’ money to find these well-known facts. the UN should have considered punitive actions which would have been effective.
o What Generals in Nay Pyi Taw may be thinking at this stage?
The recent events in the country signal that the military regime may not survive for a long time under the current policy and leadership. Many generals who lost the recent battles with the ethnic armed organisations were given death sentences or removed from their positions. More general may face a similar fate soon. The change is inevitable for Myanmar's military leadership. If there is no leadership change, then there must be policy change. The third and the only remaining option for all Myanmar generals would be to flee to a country which will not hand over to the international courts to face genocide and war crime charges.
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