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Registered Investment Advisor
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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Investment Newsletter - Q3 2023 |
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Greetings!
Having finished the second quarter of 2023, much like the first quarter, it is another example at just how unpredictable things can be in general, and the stock market in particular. Going back three months ago, there were predictions of an impending recession, and added to that the concerns of bank failures, as there were a couple of bank failures in rapid succession. Now here we are and a recession still has not happened (not saying it won't, but so far it hasn't), and concerns of bank failures happening appears to be in the rear view mirror.
This past quarter, like the quarter that preceded it, the stock market had a much better quarter than was mostly predicted. It once again shows that for successful investors, it is time in the market, and the impossibility of trying to time the market.
We give you a deeper insight into our thoughts on the past quarter and outlook further below. If you would like, we also have a link to the Q3 2023 Global Market Outlook by Russell Investments. Click here to access the in-depth commentary.
In this issue of our Investment Newsletter:
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We have two investment topics this issue. One is: "What To Do When You Inherit Assets" and the other is: "Understanding IRMAA: Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount for Medicare"
- Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press.
- An overview of recent market activity, along with Our Perspective...
- A recap of the performance of major market indices from the past quarter
- Upcoming Economic Calendar
You will find past investment articles, by clicking the Articles tab above, or directly on our website, found under Periodicals.
If there is a topic of interest you would like to see covered in the future, please reply back to this email to let us know, or click here. Likewise, if you have any questions on this or anything else, feel free to reply back.
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Investment Topics
"What To Do When You Inherit Assets"?
For our first investment topic, "What To Do When You Inherit Assets" we give some of our thoughts and suggestions. To learn more, please click here.
"Understanding IRMAA: Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount for Medicare"
Our other investment topic is "Understanding IRMAA: Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount for Medicare", which you can read by clicking here.
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Recent articles where Landmark Wealth Management was quoted in the press
The past few years, Landmark Wealth Management has been quoted in the press for various articles. We have decided to start sharing these when they happen. If curious about past times we were mentioned, you can see it on our website under Articles > In The Press, or simply click here.
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From an article that was on the website MarketWatch, we thought you may find this story of interest: "7 Signs It's Time to Fire Your Financial Advisor". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website US News & World Report, "Laid Off at Age 60?Here;s How to Handle Retirement Savings". To access this article, please click here.
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From an article on the website GoBankingRates, "How to Save More in Your Employer's Retirement Plan". To access this article, please click here.
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Our Perspective on Recent Market News and Activity |
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Our synopsis of the past quarter, a look ahead, and putting it all in perspective: |
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Well, Q2 is now behind us, and it was the third consecutive quarter of growth for the overall markets since the previous market lows in Q3 2022. The S&P 500 entered a new bull market having risen more than 20% from its October 2022 low. The bear market, which lasted 248 trading days, was the index’s longest since 1948, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Why have the markets rallied? Despite a banking crisis, the threat of U.S. default, and more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve, it simply came down to that the worst-case scenarios feared by many investors, never materialized. The S&P 500 is up nearly 16% in 2023, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 3.8%. That gap between the two has been primarily driven by about 7 technology firms that are focused on AI (artificial intelligence) and has somewhat masked what has been a more modest recovery. As such, the NASDAQ is up 33% YTD after a very difficult 2022 which saw it fall -33%. (Remember, if you fall -33%, you need more than 49% to get back to breakeven). Corporate earnings for the most part have been better than expected and the next hurdle for the markets will be the start of earnings season which officially begins on July 14th.
So, what does the remainder of the year have in store for the markets? The common theme that we hear about the rest of the year is that the market outlook is “murky”. While the market has so far dodged a lot of the hurdles mentioned earlier, the Fed continues to raise interest rates to rein in inflation. Sales of existing homes have fallen by about 1/3rd since the start of 2022. To date, the Fed’s rate increases haven’t ended the economic expansion. GDP increased at a 2% annualized pace in Q1, faster than the previous estimate of 1.3%. Additionally, the labor market continues to add jobs at a pace well above the pre-pandemic average. If you take out the gains of about 7 technology firms focused on AI, the markets returns would be greatly diminished. And while some of the economic data has been better than expected, some cracks are starting to emerge.
Analysts widely agree that the economy is slowing. We also know that historically, recessions have not been good news for markets. The question remains when will the recession ultimately hit? Did we already have it, are we in it now, or is it coming? If we have not had it yet, will it be a light or hard recession? These questions are all valid and only time will give us the answers. Timing is always impossible to get right on a consistent basis, and 2023 thus far shows the risks of being too pessimistic. One would like to see the market returns come from a broader spectrum of stock across many of the major indexes and sectors and not such heavy outsized performance from just a handful of technology names. Perhaps that will occur, as many rebalance, taking profit from some of the overperforming names and reallocating that cash into those other areas that have not yet done as well. Bonds have not yet had the strong year that many thought that they would have, however with the Fed continuing to raise rates, the strong positive returns that many had expected from bonds may just get pushed into 2024. The good news is that yields on bonds have significantly improved due to the raising rate environment, and if/when the time comes that the Fed starts to lower rates, that will really drive better returns. Remember, when interest rates go down, bond prices go up. That has not yet happened, but the inversion of the yield curve implies that will occur down the road.
What does one do now? As always, you stick to the plan. We always stress how market timing is impossible, and inconsequential to success in a long-term investment plan. Do not get greedy. Recognize that market returns are often fragmented, and outsize returns may appear in one sector, only to dissipate and show up in a previously underperforming sector. The key is to not try and chase what has done well, but rather take some profit and redeploy that cash into the other areas of a well-diversified portfolio. That is what account rebalancing accomplishes and what we do for our clients on a quarterly basis, and sooner if market volatility is severe. Over time that leads to a more evenly rounded return with less volatility. This approach has served investors well for generations, and this time should be no different.
For emergency fund cash, you should be receiving 4%+ interest on cash balances at this point in time. We are not talking about checking accounts which typically pay little to no interest, but for the larger sums that are earmarked as “emergency funds”. If you would like to discuss this or anything else, we always welcome the call. Be prepared as the markets are not fully out of the woods despite exiting the bear market, but as always better times are just around the corner, and you do not want to be on the sidelines when that occurs. Enjoy the summer months!
Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.
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Below is the Q2 '23 price return performance of some of the major indices: |
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On the Investment Horizon |
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Upcoming Key Dates on the Economic Calendar
- First Friday of each month: Unemployment report for the prior month, released at 8:30AM.
- Tuesday, July 4 - Independence Day: US Markets closed.
- Wednesday, July 5 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
- Tuesday, July 25 - Wednesday, July 26: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, July 27 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (advance estimate).
- Wednesday, August 16 - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes of previous meeting at 2PM.
- Wednesday, August 30 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (second estimate).
- Monday, September 4 - Labor Day: US Markets closed.
- Tuesday, September 19 - Wednesday, September 20: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, and releases their announcement on Wednesday at 2PM.
- Thursday, September 28 at 8:30AM - GDP, 2nd quarter (third estimate).
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For our clients - You should have received your statement directly from your account custodian (TD Ameritrade and/or Charles Schwab). If you have not, please let us know so that we may investigate the matter. Please review your statement carefully and let us know if you have any questions or comments.
Also, as a reminder, we have moved to a new office, with a nice sized conference room to use for our meetings and updates. If you do not feel comfortable coming into our office, we recommend that we possibly set up a Zoom or teleconference call to update your planning numbers, especially if it has been more than a year since we have last done so. Please feel free to reach out.
For everyone - If you desire an appointment, have any questions on any of this material, or any other financial subjects may relate to your own financial circumstance, please reach out to us at the contact information below:
Sincerely,
Direct phone: 631-923-2485
This communication is from Landmark Wealth Management, LLC, a Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisory firm. The information in this email is not intended as tax or legal advice, and it may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. You are encouraged to seek tax, legal, or investment advice from an independent professional / financial advisor. The content is derived from sources believed to be accurate. Neither the information presented nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Information and use of materials contained in this email, including text and attachments, is confidential and is for the use of the intended recipient(s) only. If received in error, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication, or any of its contents, is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please reply to the sender and delete the original message and any copy of it from your systems. Be also advised that email communications are not secure. All e-mail sent to or from this address will be recorded by the Landmark Wealth Management, LLC email system and is subject to archival, monitoring, and inspection pursuant to securities regulations. Please direct any matters regarding this policy to info@landmarkwealthmgmt.com.
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Landmark Wealth Management, LLC
95 Broadhollow Road, Suite 102
Melville, NY 11747
(631) 923-2485
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