Week InReview

Friday | Jun 14, 2024

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BOJ prepares to deliver a policy decision.

Japan’s turn | It’s the Bank of Japan’s turn to deliver a policy decision two days after the Federal Reserve. Japanese policymakers are widely expected to reduce bond purchases while holding the benchmark rate in a range between 0 and 0.1%. More than half of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg said the BOJ will slow the pace of bond buying from roughly ¥6 trillion ($38.2 billion) per month. That would be its first clear step toward quantitative tightening after it ended its massive stimulus program in March.


Tech rally | US equities closed at a record high on Thursday, led once again by a rally in mega tech stocks. Apple was one of the big winners in the session, climbing for a third-straight day and overtaking Microsoft to regain its title as the world’s most valuable company with a market capitalization of $3.285 trillion. Adobe also rose in extended trading after a strong outlook for its creative products suggested its customers are adopting its new artificial intelligence-based tools. A historically strong start to the year for the S&P 500 should continue into the second half of this year, according to strategists at JPMorgan’s asset management division.


Money high | It’s not just stocks enticing investors — money-market funds have also amassed a record amount of assets after the Fed signaled it’s in no rush to lower interest rates. Total assets rose to an all-time high of $6.12 trillion, as about $28 billion flowed into such funds in the week through June 12, according to Investment Company Institute data. Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer for global liquidity markets at Federated Hermes, says assets have the potential to go even further — to $7 trillion. “Cash is going to continue to come in. It’ll just come from different sources,” Cunningham said.

let's recap...

Illustration: Emil Lendof | The Wall Street Journal, iStock

Private equity firms have amassed $1tn in ‘carry’ fees as taxation debate mounts

The world’s largest private capital firms have avoided income taxes on more than $1 trillion in incentive fees since 2000 by structuring the payments in a way that subjected them to a much lower levy. Such performance fees have for years drawn political scrutiny in the US and Europe and face a wave of renewed calls to close what prominent politicians characterize as a “loophole.” (Financial Times - free link | Jun 12)


What the Fed’s rate-cut delay means for the US and the World

The US Federal Reserve and its vast global audience thought 2024 would be a rate-cut bonanza. But with inflation proving stickier than almost anyone predicted, those expectations are fading fast. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed as much on June 12, when he and his fellow policymakers signaled there would be just one cut in 2024 and forecast more for 2025, reinforcing policymakers’ calls to keep borrowing costs higher for longer to suppress inflation. (Bloomberg Economics | Jun 12)


Bond investors are paying up again for active fund managers

A rocky stretch in the debt markets has American savers turning to Wall Street pros for help picking their bonds. About $105 billion has flowed into actively managed fixed-income funds on a net basis this year, compared with $74 billion for funds that choose investments by tracking an index, according to Morningstar Direct data as of April 30. That marks the first time flows into active bond funds topped those into passive funds during the period since 2021. (The Wall Street Journal | Jun 11)


IMF warns US on ballooning fiscal burden

The IMF’s second-in-command has urged the US to shrink its mounting fiscal burden, saying strong growth in the world’s largest economy gave it “ample” room to rein in spending and raise taxes. Gita Gopinath, the fund’s first deputy managing director, said it was time for advanced economies to “invest in fiscal consolidation” and address how they plan to bring debt burdens back down to pre-pandemic levels. (Financial Times | Jun 8)


Zombies: Ranks of world’s most debt-hobbled companies soar. Not all will survive.

Companies so laden with debt that they are just stumbling by on the brink of survival, barely able to pay even the interest on their loans, zombies are often just a bad business hit away from dying off for good. An Associated Press analysis found their numbers have soared to nearly 7,000 publicly traded companies around the world — 2,000 in the United States alone — whiplashed by years of piling up cheap debt followed by stubborn inflation that has pushed borrowing costs to decade highs. (Associated Press | Jun 7)

from the archives....

Illustration: Satoshi Kambayashi | The Economist

January 2020...

High-yield was oxy. Private credit is fentanyl.

Yet despite the data — and the intuition about higher-yielding loans — private lenders assure investors that the extra yield isn’t a result of increased risk and that, over time, private credit has been less correlated with other asset classes.

 — Institutional Investor | Jan 2020


Latest news

Private lenders storm public bond markets at record-setting pace

— Bloomberg Markets | Jun 13


Has private credit’s golden age already ended?

— The Economist | Jun 13


Life is getting tougher for private credit funds

Financial Times | Jun 11

a little bit of cyber

Photo caption

Phone scammers impersonating CISA employees

Impersonation scams are on the rise and often use the names and titles of government employees. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is aware of recent impersonation scammers claiming to represent the agency. As a reminder, CISA staff will never contact you with a request to wire money, cash, cryptocurrency, or use gift cards and will never instruct you to keep the discussion secret. If you suspect you are a target of an impersonation scammer claiming to be a CISA employee: 

  • Do not pay the caller.
  • Take note of the phone number calling you.
  • Hang up immediately.
  • Validate the contact by calling CISA at (844) SAY-CISA (844-729-2472) or report it to law enforcement. 

Read more.


Why G7 leaders are turning to a special guest — Pope Francis — for advice on AI

When leaders of the world's leading industrialized nations meet in Italy this week, they'll be joined by a unique guest to discuss the risks posed by artificial intelligence: Pope Francis. This is the first G7 summit to feature a pope as an invited participant, but it's not the first time that Pope Francis has weighed in on this emerging technology and how he believes it should be developed for the good of humanity.

NPR


Feds saw more cyberattacks but better detection last year, FISMA report says

US government agencies reported 32,211 cyber incidents to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in fiscal 2023, up about 10% from 29,319 the prior year, according to the Office of Management and Budget. The Justice Department, Treasury and Health and Human Services reported episodes defined as "major."

NextGov

binge reading disorder

Pope Francis once said humor is "a human attribute, but it is the closest to God’s grace.” Photo: Guglielmo Mangiapane | Reuters

Pope Francis to meet prominent comedians in the Vatican

Household names such as Jimmy Fallon, Stephen Colbert, Conan O'Brian, Chris Rock, and Whoopi Goldberg, will be among the comedians Pope Francis will meet today, as he welcomes a group of international comedians and comic artists to the Vatican. The meeting aims to "celebrate the beauty of human diversity ... [and] promote a message of peace, love and solidarity". It "promises to be a moment of meaningful intercultural dialogue and sharing of joy and hope."

Vatican News


Apple isn’t paying OpenAI to use its chatbot, it’s paying through distribution

When Apple Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook and his top deputies this week unveiled a landmark format with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT into the iPhone, iPad and Mac, they were mum on the financial terms. Left unanswered on Monday: which company is paying the other as part of a tight collaboration with potentially lasting monetary benefits for both. But, according to people briefed on the matter, the partnership isn’t expected to generate meaningful revenue for either party — at least at the outset.

Bloomberg Technology


An AI cartoon may interview you for your next job

The cartoon interviewer greets you onscreen. He looks a little young to be asking questions about a job — sort of a cartoon version of Harry Potter, with dark hair and glasses. You can choose other interviewers to speak with instead, representing various genders and races with names like Benjamin, Leslie, and Kristin. Alex, the name given to this AI interviewer, asks about your professional experience and theoretical questions about programming and then gives out a coding exercise.

Wired

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