Planning for an upcoming school year always requires a certain about of educated guesswork. But if there was ever a time when all of us could use a crystal ball to give us even a foggy idea of what to expect in the year ahead, now is that time. As you think about what the future may hold for the next school year and what budget assumptions you should make, here are just a few things to consider:
Sales tax collections for April were down by 9 percent compared to those collections for the same month in 2019.
That's a snapshot in time from a month when many businesses were completely shutdown, but it is also a sign worth attention. How quickly the economy bounces back remains to be seen. Keep in mind that Texas must adopt a budget that meets the 'pay as you go' spending limit. We can't spend more than we expect to collect. The 9 percent decline hurts, to be sure, but the other thing that will play a big role is the long-term effect to the economy and therefore the projections of what revenue sales taxes and other sources may generate in 2021 and 2022. That 9 percent decline is why you may start to hear about some folks calling for a state budget reduction of 10 percent (though none of those calls are from official sources yet).
Help and hold harmless provisions offered for disasters in the past are more challenging to offer statewide long-term.
In the past when certain areas of the state have faced disasters and catastrophic events, the state has offered waivers and hold harmless provisions for a time following the disaster. We have seen that this spring as schools statewide offered remote instruction during the pandemic. However, continuing that practice into the next school year could be challenging due to the cost for such provisions on a statewide basis, rather than for a specific region; the state recognizes they will have limited funds. Hopefully provisions to ensure funding is not reduced will continue, but whether schools can count on that assistance is something to consider.
Attendance and collections are down while costs are up.
We've already talked about making assumptions that attendance rates and enrollment may be lower in the next school year, as well as tax collections. The thing that won't be lower is costs. As schools hope to return to in-person instruction, the process of deep cleaning and find ways to allow for social distancing among students and staff all carry additional costs.
Full-time virtual learning is being proposed as more than a stop-gap solution.
While there are an awful lot of parents statewide who can't wait for in-person instruction to resume inside school buildings, there are also some who are calling for the state to offer full-time virtual learning opportunities on a year-round basis, pandemic or not. While it is wonderful to hear that some students and families have had a positive experience with this experiment, we can't lose sight of the students for whom that has not been the case. Blended virtual learning can be a great tool, but it can't completely replace all that a public school setting has to offer.
