Note: It may not be polite to say, "I told you so," but sometimes it can be quite satisfying. Back in 2004, I was probably the first to write about this new development that for the first time the stateside Puerto Rican population was exceeding that of Puerto Rico, one of the findings of the report we did for the Government of Puerto Rico, Atlas of Stateside Puerto Ricans. What was interesting at the time was how many social scientists and others in Puerto Rico poo-pooed the idea, including many cited in the article below who have apparently finally come to accept this demographic reality!

---Angelo Falc�n

Population Decline in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's population decreases with increasing migration, with the additional ingredient that every time professionals leave the population ages

By Jos� A. Delgado | jdelgado@elnuevodia.com  

El Nuevo Dia (March 27, 2011)

translated from Spanish by NiLP

WASHINGTON - For the first time in history, the phenomenon of emigration to the United States has not only reduced the population of Puerto Rico, but much of its professionals and proportionately older as well.

The data are particularly disturbing at a time when it is calculated --- awaiting more detailed information including the 2010 federal census --- that about half a million people may have moved from Puerto Rico to the U.S. during the past decade.

For every two of those who left, one returned to the Island

Some estimates indicate that more than 496,000 residents of the Island moved to the United States between 2001 and 2009, for an average of 55,000 each year.

The federal Census surveys claim that just between 2005 and 2009 about 300,000 Puerto Ricans moved to the United States. In that same period another 160,000 decided to return to their land.

Last December, the first data from Census 2010 revealed that for the first time the population of Puerto Rico --- since the federal government first counted the  total inhabitants of the island --- was reduced from one decade to another.

Until the summer of 2010, there were 3,725,789 people on the island, 82.821 less than a decade ago.

The population decline has been particularly high in the northern metropolitan area; between San Juan (39,048), Ponce (20,148), Bayamon (15,928), Carolina (9,314) and Guaynabo (2,129) slightly more than 86,000 inhabitants were lost.

The 2010 census data about the total Puerto Rican population in the U.S. last summer is not yet available, but until 2009 the surveys estimated that number could rise to 4.2 million.

"That gap will continue to expand," said Professor Edwin Melendez, director of the Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College in New York.

In 2009, calculations indicated that the population aged 65 years or more in Puerto Rico accounted for 13.3% of all inhabitants of the island, almost 2% more than in 2000.

Since 2005, most migrants have been men between 20 and 40, according to Mario Marazzi, director of the Institute of Statistics of Puerto Rico, which recently published the study, "The Profile of Migrants: 2000-2009."

Proportionately, the older the population," warned Marazzi, the less productive they are. For a country that already has a very low labor force participation rate (41%), the aging population is another challenge.

According Mel�ndez, it is clear that the young are more likely to emigrate. He further stated that "the chances of emigrating to the United States are higher for women with more education and less educated men if they are employed in low-wage occupations."

Mel�ndez, however, is not convinced that there has been a major brain drain in recent years.

According to Census data, Melendez contends that from 2005 to 2009, 18% of men and 30% of women who left the United States were professionals. But the percentages are below the total of men (22.6%) and professional women (33.8%) on the Island

Marazzi himself cautioned that the data from 2005 to 2009 are based on a sample of the information collected from surveys carried out annually, requiring further research reflecting the findings of the 2010 federal census.

"Current estimates have a relatively high standard error," said Marazzi.

Florida as Paradise

The federal census surveys, in turn, indicate that the trend that began in 1990, which the researcher Jorge Duany has been described as the "Puerto Ricanization of Florida," continued during the past decade.

More recent studies confirm that this phenomenon increased since 2006, when it was found that an economic recession began in Puerto Rico.

Despite the closeness between Puerto Rico and Florida, the state of Florida in 1980 only had 4.7% of the Puerto Rican population in the United States (94,775).

At the end of 2009, the total was estimated at about 750,000, representing about 18% of the U.S. population that identified as of Puerto Rican origin.

After Florida, in the last decade the preferred destination of migrants have been the states of Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey, according to federal census surveys.

With a climate more tolerable than migration centers in northeastern United States, the boom in employment opportunities redirected the plans of Puerto Ricans to Florida.

"From the creation of Disney World, and other important workplaces, for example for engineers in the area of Cape Canaveral and the strong development of the entire entertainment industry and services," Florida became a point of preference, said Duany, a professor at the University of Puerto Rico (UPR) and an expert on migration issues.

Geographical proximity and travel costs are other important factors that motivate the Puerto Rican to seek new employment opportunities or start another stage of his or her life in Florida.

And as now occurs with the transition to states where temperatures reach close to Puerto Rico's, like California and Texas, Florida has always been also the preferred climate.

Wilfredo Seda, a spokesman for the National Congress for Puerto Rican Rights in Orlando (Florida), said that Puerto Ricans who move to that area "tell you they came looking for employment opportunities or to improve their career."

"Some mention the high level of crime (in Puerto Rico) as another factor in his decision" to leave the island, said Seda, who believes, however, that the economic recession in the United States has made the  Puerto Rican immigrant group in central Florida suffer the same lack of job opportunities they faced on the island.

California and Texas are considered among the new destinations for Puerto Ricans. In 2009, for example, more than 5,000 Puerto Ricans moved to Texas, the fifth state to receive people from the island that year.

"It is no coincidence that the economic indices of California and Texas are also the best," said Duany.

From 2001 to 2008, according to federal census data, another area favored by Puerto Ricans was Hampten County, Massachusetts, which includes the town of Springfield.

Although Puerto Ricans have for decades had a notable presence in the Boston area, Springfield is a town that is also close to Connecticut, another state with a large number of people of Puerto Rican origin.

While Puerto Ricans choose to relocate to non-traditional places, where they have no family or community support, there will be difficulties in adapting as originally experienced by the Puerto Rican community in New York, according to Professor Mel�ndez.

For some, the complications of the process of dealing with the new reality in the United States can range from a lack of political representation to the lack of basic services in Spanish for those who do not speak English, according to experts.

What About Returning?

On the other hand, the perception is that the cultural factor and sense of belonging to a large extent influence the decision to return to their island.

"In economic terms, the return is not usually attractive, because of the low wages in Puerto Rico. But the cold, discrimination in the United States, family ties make many return, "said Duany.

Contrary to what may be the general perception, it is mostly people who, after finishing their careers, who decide to retire to their homeland.

Marazzi, in that regard, indicated that the profile of those returning to the island is mostly composed of "men between 20 and 40 years," which is the population group most involved in the "flying bus" between Puerto Rico and the U.S..

In turn, according to Marazzi, they are  often mostly unmarried, without having completed a baccalaureate degree, "with personal incomes under $ 10,000" and from the Puerto Rican communities that are usually "in southern and northeastern United States ."