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Private Meetings and Events
Miles Franklin seeks creative ways to partner with its clients to market Precious Metals to nationwide audiences. If you are interested in hosting a private meeting - or sponsoring a Webinar presentation - with Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin, and "Ranting Andy" Hoffman, Marketing Director, please inquire via email to aschectman@milesfranklin.com or ahoffman@milesfranklin.com; or via telephone at 800-822-8080. |
 Quotes of the Day
My prediction going forward is that Congress will make no major changes to the deficit until the dollar weakens and interest rates rise, forcing action. The Fed is monetizing at the rate of a trillion dollars a year, which covers 80% of the deficit. For now, the Fed has bailed out the federal deficit so politicians don't need to do anything.
- David Galland, Casey Research, February 1 2013
- Positive Benchmark Revision to Payrolls Overstates Current Circumstance
- Annual Upside-Bias in Birth-Death Model Increased to About 620,000
- January Unemployment: 7.9% (U.3), 14.4% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)
- Month-to-Month Headline Unemployment Rates Are Not Comparable
- January M3 Year-to-Year Growth at 4.5%
- John Williams, Shadowstats, February 2 2013
What does the Social Security Administration fear?
The SSA is set to purchase 174,000 rounds of hollow-point bullets that will be delivered to 41 locations across the country, Infowars is reporting.
Hollow-point bullets are designed to expand as they enter the body, causing maximum damage by tearing apart internal organs.
A solicitation posted by the SSA on the FedBizOpps website asks for contractors to supply 174,000 rounds of ".357 Sig 125 grain-bonded jacketed hollow-point pistol ammunition."
An online ammunition retailer describes the bullets as suitable "for peak performance rivaling and sometimes surpassing hand loads in many guns," noting that the ammo is "a great personal defense bullet."
The ammunition is to be shipped to 41 locations within 60 days of purchase. A separate spreadsheet lists those locations, which include the Social Security headquarters in Baltimore, as well as major cities across the country including Los Angeles, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Seattle.
The DHS also recently purchased a number of bulletproof checkpoint booths that include "stop and go" lights, says Infowars.
-Information from the Infowars article Social Security Administration To Purchase 174 Thousand Rounds Of Hollow Point Bullets, August 15 2012
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From David's Desk
 | | David Schectman |
What Will it Take?
What will it take? I've been following the price of gold (and silver) for 30 years. I have always wondered - what will it take to get the average American interested in precious metals? What will it take to launch gold into the "parabolic stage" that we haven't experienced yet? What would it take to ignite the awakening?
When Y2K arrived I wondered, would this be the spark? It was not. When the stock market bubble popped in late 2000, I wondered, "Is this the event?" It was not. When the real estate bubble popped in 2008, along with the derivatives bubble, I thought, well maybe this time? It was not to be.
Backwoods Jack asked me how come the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, Arab Spring, and the Iranian nuclear issue haven't resulted in an explosion in the price of gold. Clearly, they have not. The near-collapse of the PIIGS was, as far as gold is concerned, a non-event. Nor have QE 1, QE 2, Operation Twist and the Fed's announcement that they will keep interest rates near zero well into the future, and that they will purchase $85 billion in mortgage bonds and Treasury bonds every month. So I ask myself, for the umpteenth time, what will it take? There IS a Black Swan event out there that will be the fuse, but trying to predict what it is or when it will occur is futile. The last 30 years has made that clear to me.
I can, along with Bill Holter and Andy Hoffman, argue that the end game IS a mathematical certainty. Of that, there can be no rational doubt. What I also know is that since we can't know "what" or "when," we must be early - we must prepare in advance.
For those of you who were early, there is comfort in knowing you were not foolish. If you bought gold at $300, or $500, or $750, or $1,000, or $1,250, or $1,500 or even $1,600 - you have done well. The earlier the better! I am as certain as certain can be that those of you who bought your gold at $1,900 will be thrilled with the purchase later this year - or next. It doesn't matter, because this is not a contest to see who can buy at the lowest possible price, because that is impossible unless you are just plain lucky. All that matters is who WINS the game. I say, those who own a lot of gold and silver and very little dollars will be the winners, the big winners. If your only "sin" is being early, you are already ahead of the game.
Gold and silver are your insurance policies meant to protect you against the "Black Swan" event that we cannot know in advance. The Swan is out there. I can't help believing that it will pay us a visit sooner rather than later.
The fact that I am worried about all of the previous events mentioned above, that did not cause a collapse of the economy, the currency or an explosion in gold and silver is irrelevant. My gains are huge. My portfolio is positioned to survive any Black Swan event. I am not doing it to make a killing. I am doing it to avoid being killed, financially speaking. And meanwhile, my wealth has been virtually entirely in the number one and two performing assets over the last five and ten years. And the best part is, the best is yet to come. The biggest gains are ahead of us. My biggest failing is being too early and it turned out to be a blessing. And all of the above can be said for my readers who have taken my advice. I don't hear any of you complaining of your gains.
Anyways, who wants to see things fall apart? Unfortunately, for millions of Americans, things have already fallen apart - as demonstrated by the 24% unemployment number (Shadowstats). That number is something last seen during the Great Depression.
You can view the future, the future of the dollar, the economy and the stock market through my prism - or you can view it through the eyes of your money manager, financial advisor or stockbroker. The choice is yours. Apart from being early, I rest on my record!
Time to throw out my prediction of the real Black Swan event. Here it is:
Rising interest rates, causing a collapse in the biggest bubble ever, the bond market.
I take comfort that Bill Gross, THE bond maven agrees. Let's just hope it is a long ways off. I give it two or three years at the outside. But, I have been wrong before.
Good luck to us all!
Sincerely, David Schectman Miles Franklin Back to Table of Contents |
The Holter Report
 | Bill Holter
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Is There Anything in the Vault to Revalue?
Published: February 4th, 2013 With the US Congress now having "suspended" the Treasury's debt "limit" until May 19, the last feeble constraint is gone. In January 1980, when the Treasury had yet to rack up its first $US 1 TRILLION in funded debt, Gold reached $US 850. Today, it's expected that when the "temporary" suspension of the debt limit has reached its mandated end on May 19, Treasury debt will be at or very near the $US 17 TRILLION level. Yet right now, Gold has not quite doubled that 1980 level in nominal terms. - The Privateer The above quote is all you need to know. Think about what Bill Buckler is saying here in such a simple , short and completely factual statement. The last time that the U.S. Treasury and Fed were losing credibility, U.S. debt was 1/17th what it is now (not even including all of the other guarantees and unfunded promises) yet Gold was only half the price it is now. Back then, there was only the "threat" of potential "insolvency" whereas now the potential or should I say "probability" of insolvency is pretty much carved in stone. If the market (left to its own) were to value Gold like it was back in 1980, it would need to trade somewhere in the $15,000 range. But even this figure would not be enough! If you added in all of the guarantees, agency debt and unfunded liabilities you would need a figure well north of $50,000 per ounce and this is assuming that no "bankruptcy" would occur as it did not after 1980. The point is this, Gold (and Silver) are grossly undervalued yet they are the target of Washington, Wall Street and the main stream media for warnings that they are in unsustainable bubbles. Gold (if you understand the math involved) is not only NOT in bubble territory, it is the "anti bubble" and the most UNDERVALUED asset on the planet (with the sole exception being Silver). I know that I have written on this subject many times but it is important that it be reiterated. In order to "refinance" or to make the system solvent again, gold MUST be revalued higher. The central banks and sovereign treasuries will thus come back into "balance" with a much higher gold price. The U.S. Treasury and Fed are in the same boat... IF and only IF we have the gold that we claim to have. This is a very important "minor detail," whether or not we have the gold. It is very simple. If we do have it, the holdings can revalued and "balance" the previous errors of our ways and if we do not... ...if we do not then we have only one thing left, the world's largest military power. This is a very scary scenario because economically we will be in a shamble. We (the citizens) will see a massive (35% at absolute minimum) drop in living standards. "Handouts" will necessarily be cut and in general people will be pissed off. I bring up this facet because of the recent "drills" in both Miami and Houston.  | | Army Drill Terrorizes Houston Neighborhood: Urban Helicopter Warfare Training Exercise |
I cannot ever remember anything like this before. I also cannot ever remember any agency outside of the military ordering over 1 billion rounds of ammunition or the IRS ordering 7,000 assault rifles. Something is definitely coming to a head and it just may be that gold gets revalued internationally which will leave us far behind if the vaults are truly empty! Protect yourself; no one else will!
Regards,
Bill Holter
Associate Writer for Miles Franklin
Read more Bill Holter Articles on the Miles Franklin Blog
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Gold Highlights
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BFI Wealth, Zurich - Swiss Annuities and Managed Accounts
Miles Franklin and BFI Consulting of Zurich, Switzerland, have partnered for the past two decades in offering access to offshore annuities and managed accounts. Born at roughly the same time in the early 1990s, both firms have successfully PROTECTED clients via quality, secure, private accounts holding PHYSICAL Precious Metals, annuities, and other managed products. BFI is a global leader in the sale and maintenance of Swiss annuities and privately managed accounts - particularly to U.S.-based clients; and through its Global Gold subsidiary - utilizing worldwide storage leader Via Mat - offers international Precious Metal storage services in Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore. As with Miles Franklin's Canadian offshore storage program, Global Gold offers allocated storage OUTSIDE the banking system.
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Gold's Bull Market Still Looking Good
Thursday January 31, 2013 09:38
Well, the gold price did it again.... It's now official; gold has been up for 12 consecutive years. It closed December up 7% from a year ago.
Silver closed up over 8% from a year ago. This indirectly says the stellar silver rise in 2010, which was its best year in the bull market, remains predominant.
GOLD'S BULL IN 2013
Looking at gold's higher close each year helps put pricing into perspective. For example.... in 2012 closed at $1675.80.
This means that as long as gold closes 2013 above $1675.80 the bull will stay alive, reaching another annual record. Now this doesn't seem so hard for gold to do, especially in the historical environment we live in today and looking ahead to what 2013 has to deal with.
Some argue that gold's bull market is on its last leg. They feel it may have a hard time staying bullish as the year unfolds because stocks could be stiff competition, which will lessen the need for gold as a risk asset.
We can understand this concern and others because gold hasn't reached a record high in 16 months, in spite of the crises and debt dilemmas in the U.S. and Europe. The ongoing massive currency creation, the Fed's out of sight bond buying and adding trillions to the debt just to help hold off the crisis should be affecting the gold price by now.
But events always seem to take longer than anticipated. Inflation will surely come; it's just a matter of when. The fact that gold hasn't reached a new high doesn't change our view of the bull market.
More important is gold's lack of weakness. It has only given back less than 20% of its 170% rise from the 2008 lows to the Sept 2011 record high.
This tells us the bull market is alive and well. Gold is simply the best investment considering the current historical, monetary, fiscal and economic environment. Think of it as your financial insurance against all of today's uncertainty.
 Gold's big picture is bullish
It's always a good idea to start the New Year off looking at the big picture. It clearly helps to keep focused on the important trends (see Chart 1).
First, note the steady rise gold has had since 2001. It's moving within a mega up channel that's been underway since the late 1960s.
This clearly shows how insignificant the decline of the last 16 months has been. Gold has held firmly near the September highs on a big picture basis.
Meanwhile, the leading indicator, B, has been declining reaching the low areas of the bull market. This is amazing to see the indicator at a great buying area, while gold holds firm, and with plenty of room to rise further.
Gold better than stock market
We all know the stock market outperformed the gold market last year. And this year stocks continue to look good. This is fine but the next chart shows that gold investors have no worries because the mega trend clearly continues to favor gold. In fact, it's saying gold is currently cheap compared to the stock market ... as cheap as it was 12 years ago! Chart 2 shows the ratio of gold compared to the Dow Jones Industrials. Here you can see the ratio changed to favor gold back in 2002 when it rose above its mega moving average trend.
The ratio has stayed consistently above this average since then, and even though it's come down from the highs and could even decline further, the leading indicator (B) shows that gold is in a low area (cheap) versus the stock market.
And as long as the ratio stays above its moving average, the mega trend will favor gold over stocks.
 Gold buying time
Gold is in a good buying time. It fell further in December in a decline we call "B" and gold's been basing above the Dec 20 low at $1646 (see Chart 3A). This means gold has come down 8�% since its $1796 high on Oct 4.
Clearly, it's been a moderate decline, which is characteristic of a B decline, and whichever way gold breaks out of this $1796 and $1646 area will tell us the next direction.
Gold is at an interesting juncture. Its leading indicator is at a low area, and its mega 23 month moving average is now at $1650 and rising. This means the Dec lows are a key level. If it holds and gold closes back above its January high near $1690, we could see the Oct high tested.
A new C rise would then be underway, and C rises tend to be the best up move in a bull market when gold rises in a record breaking leg up. We're getting closer to this time.
If the bull market remains as strong as it looks, don't get left behind... finish buying your positions.
Once gold takes off, the bombed out gold shares will catch up. They've been waiting for the green light from gold. The stock market has already given its green light, so it's now gold's turn.
By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden
www.adenforecast.com
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Reliable Financial Advisors
In a world of heightened speculative and counterparty risks, finding someone you can trust may be the most important research you do. Miles Franklin does not sell stocks, but is frequently asked if we know of reputable, full-service brokers. WE DO NOT CONDEMN OR CONDONE EQUITY INVESTMENTS, but want investors with such interest to be honestly and competently handled.
In resource stocks, the folks at Sprott Global Resource Investments - managed by Eric Sprott and Rick Rule - are the best in the business. In various capacities, we have worked with Eric Angeli, Jeff Howard, Kenton Toews, Mishka vom Dorp, Jason Stevens, Anthony Marsh, and Andrew Jackson - all of whom are diligent, ethical, and knowledgeable. That style of business is indicative of the reputation Global has built over the past 25 years. You can feel comfortable with any of their brokers, reachable at 800-477-7853.
For all other stocks - including large cap gold, silver and other resource equities - Nick Shermeta, from Northland Securities here in Minneapolis, is as trustworthy and knowledgeable as they come. Nick is a Senior Vice President with more than 20 years experience, but will treat you as if you were his only client. You can reach Nick at 612-851-5908, or by email at nshermeta@northlandsecurities.com.
The common denominator is decades of Wall Street experience, which should give you comfort that well-seasoned and weathered hands are helping manage your portfolio. Notably, we do not receive compensation for these recommendations. We just want you to know that if they are good enough for us, they should be good enough for you too.
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February 1 2013
The Wrap
Wood burns faster when you have to cut and chop it yourself. - Harrison Ford
Well, the new technical fund longs that rushed into the market on Wednesday got their heads handed to them by JPMorgan et al about twenty-four hours later. I don't know how much the Commercial traders made off that one-day trade, but it wasn't peanuts. On paper they lose money all the way up during a rally, but ring the cash register during the inevitable engineered price decline that follows. They've been doing this for decades...and it's flat-our illegal...but who's going to stop them?
The last couple of trading days have not been kind to precious metals investors. The obvious price intervention in both the metals themselves and their associated equities, shows you just how desperate the powers-that-be have become. They're doing everything they can to keep the average investor as far away from the precious metals [and salvation] as they possibly can. The message they sent in the last couple of days is..."stay away, or you'll get burned."
This day-to-day noise is aggravating and, without question, wears down the average investor. But, underneath the surface in the precious metal markets, there are big changes going on that we just aren't privy to...and it's a good bet that they're tied in with the economic and political changes that are engulfing the entire planet at the moment.
The only thing that is certain, is that this situation can't go on forever...and I'd bet serious money that when the end does come, it will come suddenly...and probably on a weekend or overnight when no one is in a position to take advantage of it. You will either be all the way in...or all the way out when that moment arrives.
As Lawrie Williams pointed out in today's last story, the charts certainly indicate that an upside breakout is imminent...but as I've gone on about many times in the past, these chart looks the way they do because of JPMorgan and friends. Chris Powell's now-famous quote..."There are no markets anymore...only interventions"...applies in spades when viewing the 3-year charts in gold and silver posted below.
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So we just have to wait it out...and continue to buy the dips if one is in a position to do that. However, speaking for myself, I've had all the dip-buying opportunities that I could ever want over the last thirteen years...and it's time to get this show on the road for real.
Continue reading on CaseyResearch.com
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In The News Today
January 31, 2013, at 3:03 pm
by Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
Please take note of the common share of Euroland vs. the common share of the USA.
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
You have to love the strength of this recovery. QE to infinity.
Retailers That Will Close the Most Stores
by 24/7 Wall St. | January 29, 2013 at 1:24 PM
By Douglas A. McIntyre, Samuel Weigley, Alexander E.M. Hess and Michael B. Sauter
It is the time of year again, when America's largest retailers release those critical holiday season figures and disclose their annual sales. A review of these numbers tells us a great deal about how most of the companies will do in the upcoming year. And while successful retailers in 2012 may add stores this year, those that have performed very poorly may have to cut locations during 2013 to improve margins or reverse losses.
For many retailers, the sales situation is so bad that it is not a question of whether they will cut stores, but when and how many. Most recently, Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) decided it had too many stores to maintain profits. Its CEO recently said he plans to close as many as a third of the company's locations.
Several of America's largest retailers have been battered for years. Most have been undermined by a combination of e-commerce competition, often from Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and more successful retailers in the same areas. Borders and Circuit City are two of the best examples of retailers that were destroyed by larger bricks-and-mortar competition and consumers transitioning to online shopping. These large, badly damaged retailers could not possibly keep their stores open.
24/7 Wall St. reviewed the weakest large U.S. retailers and picked those that likely will not be profitable next year if they keep their current location counts. 24/7 analyzed the retailers' store counts, recent financial data, online presences, prospects against direct competitors and precedents set by other large retailers that have downsized by shuttering locations. We then forecast how many stores each retailer will have to close this year to sharply increase its prospects financially, even if some of those location closings do not occur for several years. These forecasts were based on drops in same-store sales, drops in revenue, a review of direct competitors, Internet sales and the size of cuts at retailers in the same sector, if those were available.
More...
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
QE to infinity.
Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 38,000 Last Week to 368,000
By Michelle Jamrisko - Jan 31, 2013 6:49 AM MT
Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits increased more than forecast last week, nearly erasing a slide in the prior two weeks and reflecting the difficulty of adjusting the figures for swings at the start of a year.
Initial jobless claims rose 38,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the most since Nov. 10, to 368,000, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Economists forecast 350,000 filings, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The increase followed a combined 45,000 drop in the prior two weeks.
"It looks like the underlying trend in claims is just stable at around 360,000, which is where we were for much of 2012," said Ryan Wang, an economist at HSBC Securities USA Inc. in New York, who projected 367,000 filings. "Today's increase in claims I think is evidence that the low readings from early January were distorted."
Employers created about the same number of jobs in January as a month earlier, indicating labor market progress is unfolding about at the same pace as it has the last two years, figures tomorrow may show. Faster consumer spending and corporate investment in new equipment at the end of 2012 indicate employers may look past federal budget debates in Washington and add to headcounts.
More...
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
Scream and yell all you want, but QE must go to infinity. There is no other alternative politically acceptable.
Credit Supernova!
William H. Gross From Pimco.
February 2013
This is the way the world ends...
Not with a bang but a whimper.
T.S. Eliot
They say that time is money. * What they don't say is that money may be running out of time.
There may be a natural evolution to our fractionally reserved credit system, which characterizes modern global finance. Much like the universe, which began with a big bang nearly 14 billion years ago, but is expanding so rapidly that scientists predict it will all end in a "big freeze" trillions of years from now, our current monetary system seems to require perpetual expansion to maintain its existence. And too, the advancing entropy in the physical universe may in fact portend a similar decline of "energy" and "heat" within the credit markets. If so, then the legitimate response of creditors, debtors and investors inextricably intertwined within it, should logically be to ask about the economic and investment implications of its ongoing transition.
But before mimicking T.S. Eliot on the way our monetary system might evolve, let me first describe the "big bang" beginning of credit markets, so that you can more closely recognize its transition. The creation of credit in our modern day fractional reserve banking system began with a deposit and the profitable expansion of that deposit via leverage. Banks and other lenders don't always keep 100% of their deposits in the "vault" at any one time - in fact they keep very little - thus the term "fractional reserves." That first deposit then, and the explosion outward of 10x and more of levered lending, is modern day finance's equivalent of the big bang. When it began is actually harder to determine than the birth of the physical universe but it certainly accelerated with the invention of central banking - the U.S. in 1913 - and with it the increased confidence that these newly licensed lenders of last resort would provide support to financial and real economies. Banking and central banks were and remain essential elements of a productive global economy.
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Jim Sinclair's Commentary
Yes, he is right, but we will do it anyway.
Why We Cannot Print/Borrow/Spend Our Way to Prosperity
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Ballooning government deficit spending and debt has a negative effect on private GDP, money supply, money velocity and wages.
I have often explained why the Keynesian belief that the government can print/ borrow and spend enough money to trigger self-sustaining prosperity is a nonsensical, magical-thinking Cargo Cult.
The Federal Reserve's Cargo Cult Magic: Housing Will Lift the Economy (Again) (September 11, 2012)
The Dangerous Blindspots of Clueless Keynesians (January 2, 2013)
Misunderstanding Austerity, Stimulus and Demand (January 17, 2013)
The following charts show why printing/borrowing and spending our way to self-sustaining prosperity has failed, and why it will continue to fail, with eventually catastrophic results: the returns on this unprecedented borrow-spend policy are diminishing to near-zero or negative.
Humanity has an innate attraction to conspiracy and complexity. Humans have been selected to seek patterns in Nature and in the behavior of the humans around them. No wonder humans are drawn to detective stories, puzzles and conspiracies.
While conspiracies are indeed a part of the human experience, focusing on human intent and collusion can distract us from the impersonal systems that dominate economic history.
In a similar fashion, an obsession with complexity distracts us from what is blindingly obvious. Just as the alcoholic refuses to admit his addiction lest he be forced to tackle his self-destruction, so too do we avoid the financially obvious lest we be forced to surrender our ardent hope that the increasingly fragile Status Quo we depend on is enduring and secure.
More...
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
The face of retired America is screwed. As the Japanese recently advised, hurry up and die
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Here It Comes
February 2, 2013, at 4:16 am
by Jim Sinclair
My Dear Extended Family,
Here it comes. Please consider the risk of turning over your retirement account to US management in Treasury Instruments only.
How much of a push to you need to "Defend Yourself."
Sincerely,
Jim
 | | Gentlemen, prepare to defend yourself! |
Retirement Savings Accounts Draw U.S. Consumer Bureau Attention
By Carter Dougherty - Jan 18, 2013 12:01 AM ET
The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is weighing whether it should take on a role in helping Americans manage the $19.4 trillion they have put into retirement savings, a move that would be the agency's first foray into consumer investments.
"That's one of the things we've been exploring and are interested in in terms of whether and what authority we have," bureau director Richard Cordray said in an interview. He didn't provide additional details.
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray said, "You know if you lose your home because the rest of your block is foreclosed on, your credit history is affected." Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
The bureau's core concern is that many Americans, notably those from the retiring Baby Boom generation, may fall prey to financial scams, according to three people briefed on the CFPB's deliberations who asked not to be named because the matter is still under discussion.
The retirement savings business in the U.S. is dominated by a group of companies that handle record keeping and management of investments in tax-advantaged vehicles like 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts. The group includes Fidelity Investments, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) Americans held $19.4 trillion in retirement assets as of Sept. 30, 2012, according to the Investment Company Institute, an industry association; about $3.5 trillion of that was in 401(k) plans.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Labor are the main regulators of U.S. retirement savings vehicles and funds. However, the consumer bureau -- established by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act -- sees itself as a potential catalyst for promoting a coherent policy across the government, the people said.
More...
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Jim's Mailbox
February 2, 2013, at 2:41 pm
by Jim Sinclair
Hello Jim,
Every morning I am reminded that inflation is here.
On January 1, 2013 my Starbucks tall dark roast java went from $1.96 to $2.07. Up 5.6%. My banana bread went from $1.95 to $2.25. Up 15.3%. My lemon cranberry scone stayed at $1.95 but is now 1/3 smaller than it was.
CIGA Alex
Vancouver Canada
Mr. Sinclair,
Just another literal example of what is happening all around and only now being recognized on the margin by those trying to understand their situations:
On the left side of this photo is a nine (9) month old package of Johnson's baby powder (as on the right side, the unopened package had two bottles together). The right side is yesterday's package (of two) bottles. Both packages of two were sold for a sale price of 99 Baht (about $3.33 USD) nine months ago and still today.
Not much has changed to the casual observer, as if you were to measure by size, the bottles are interchangeable and the same dimensions. The difference of course is the size in weight. Now, instead of a double pack equaling 1000 grams of powder for 99 Baht, we now get 'New Double Pack Classic' 900 grams of powder for 99 Baht. An 11% price increase in nine months.
To most expats and general people around me, this example is not even noticed at first. There are countless examples around, yet the denial of a financial system (worldwide) failing, is louder still. I'm sad for all those who blindly trust their leaders to "take care of them" ....
They are 'being taken care of' all right - just as the German, Argentine, Zimbabwe population, and countless others were taken care of.
Regards,
CIGA Shawn
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Jim's Mailbox
February 1, 2013, at 11:47 am
by Jim Sinclair
The longer they suppress the ball under water the more explosive the pop up and rally is going to be
Regards,
CIGA Luis Ahlborn Sequeira
Americans Buy Nearly Half a Billion Dollars Of Gold and Silver In January January 30th, 2013
silver pricesMac Slavo: While public officials may be ignoring the continued deterioration of our economy, job losses to the tune of hundreds of thousands of people weekly, and the unprecedented demand for government emergency support services like unemployment insurance and food assistance, Americans who sense uncertainty in the air are flocking to the safety of physical resources.
Our first point of interest is a recent report from the Federal Reserve that indicates some $114 billion dollars in cash was withdrawn from the nation's largest banks in the last thirty days. Those holding their money at bailed out financial institutions are understandably concerned because the government's $250,000 deposit insurance guarantee program, originally implemented to restore confidence in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, expired at the end of 2012. That and the US fiscal situation has never been worse, with one Obama official recently having said the solution to the country's woes is to simply kill the dollar.
This suggests investors and cash savers are no longer confident in the purported safety of the country's "too-big-to-fail" institutions.
More...
Hi Jim,
Just some anecdotal information I thought everyone might find useful. Our business was down 18% in December and the same in January 2013 (We sell to 40 retail stores throughout Florida). One area large business association in a popular shopping destination polls their retail members each year after Christmas/December sales and found that as a group they were down 40% for the season. Ouch.
Household liquidity appears to be increasingly important and under increasing pressure with not much hope for improvement because of reasons we are all familiar with. Ouch again.
Thanks for your guidance and encouragement as we continue to "sit tight, be right" and never sell.
CIGA Vince
Hi Mr. Sinclair,
Here's the Credit Suisse report on Gold whose era is coming to an end. I bought my last chunk of coins in April 2011 (my first on December 2003) at 1100 Euros. On Monday, after reading this MSM nonsense, I'll be 100% invested in Gold!
Shame on CS!
Best regards,
CIGA Alex
Huge Credit Suisse Report Declares: THE GOLD ERA IS COMING TO AN END US interest rates fell to a historic low level last year. This represents an extreme level of safe-haven seeking, thanks to "existential concerns" about the essence of Western Capitalism.
More...
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In The News Today
February 1, 2013, at 11:56 am
by Jim Sinclair
Jim Sinclair's Commentary
If a banker dies he has to be nailed down to the grave with silver nails and a crucifix or he comes back as the undead and starts screwing up the world again.
No-money-down mortgages are back
By AnnaMaria Andriotis Feb. 1, 2013, 1:25 p.m. EST
Some affluent buyers are getting the keys to their new home without putting a penny down.
It's 100% financing-the same strategy that pushed many homeowners into foreclosure during the housing bust. Banks say these loans are safer: They're almost exclusively being offered to clients with sizable assets, and they often require two forms of collateral-the house and a portion of the client's investment portfolio in lieu of a traditional cash down payment.
In most cases, borrowers end up with one loan and one monthly payment. Depending on the lender and the borrower, roughly 60% to 80% of the loan can be pegged to the home's value while the remaining 20% to 40% can be secured by investments. On a $2 million primary residence, for instance, the borrower could get a $2 million loan, which would require a pledge of assets in an investment portfolio to cover what could have been, say, a $500,000 down payment. The pledged assets can remain fully invested, earning returns as normal, without disrupting the client's investment goals.
While these affluent clients may be flush with cash, this strategy allows them to get into a home without tying up funds or making withdrawals from interest-earning accounts. And given the market's gains combined with low borrowing rates in recent years, some banks say clients are pursuing 100% financing as an arbitrage play-where the return on their investments is bigger than the rate they pay on the loan, which can be as low as 2.5%. Some institutions offer only adjustable rates with these loans, which could become more expensive if rates rise. In most cases, the investment account must be held by the same institution that's providing the loan.
These loans also provide tax benefits. Since borrowers don't have to liquidate their investment portfolios to get financing, they can avoid the capital-gains tax. And in some cases, they can still tap into the mortgage-interest deduction. (Borrowers can usually deduct interest payments on up to $1 million of mortgage debt.)
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February 1, 2013 -- "The real is always ahead of what we can imagine." Paul Auster
I've been thinking about Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke of Dillon, South Carolina. My dad grew up in Charleston, so I have some insight into the minds of South Carolinians.
I think Bernanke is a nice man and I think he means well. I know that Bernanke is deathly afraid of deflation. To Bernanke, deflation is something that can get out of control. Unlike inflation, deflation cannot be easily suppressed (look at poor old Japan, which has been deflating ever since 1989). Bernanke believes in first things first, and his first order of business is to stave off the forces of deflation. These deflationary forces have been bearing down on the world for years (too much production of goods, goods that the world can't use and digest).
So Bernanke is fighting "the good fight" against deflation. In doing so, he has loaded the Fed's balance sheet with over $3 trillion dollars worth of junk bonds and mortgages. How will the Fed ever reduce its bulging balance sheet? Bernanke is leaving that to future Fed boards. After all, thinks Bernanke to himself, I can't do everything. I held off deflation, which is more than the Federal Reserve did during the Great Depression. And if nothing else, I'll go down in history for that. And as far as reducing the Fed's balance sheet, hey, I'm leaving that to future Fed Chairmen and Fed Chairwomen.
Question -- Russell, What does the US dollar look like to you?
Answer-- It looks like TROUBLE. The chart below tells the story. The red dot identifies a death-cross by the moving averages. Below the dot we see a head-and-shoulders top. Yes, to me the dollar looks like it's in trouble.
As the dollar weakens, its European competition, the euro, rallies.
In the meantime, the Bank of Japan embarks on a furious effort to create trillions of yen, in an all-out effort to lift Japan out of a generation of deflation, recession, and falling exports.
It's a currency war, which sees the world's currencies going mad. The euro rockets up against the falling yen. So what, who knows what the euro is really worth -- unless you check it against gold -- real money.
So let's face it, we're seeing a currency war, better known as "beggar thy neighbor." And it's all courtesy of the various central banks' ability to create fiat currencies out of thin air. The winner will most likely be the Chinese yuan. The loser will probably be the world's current reserve currency -- the US dollar.
Subscribe to the Dow Theory Letters for the full article.
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David's Mail Box
David,
Nice job guys. I can't sleep after these articles, but nice job just the same. I also grew up jumping under my desk to "practice" if Moscow got out of control. [Inkwell & all] We know now that our wooden desks did nothing to protect us, but it sure beat out math test. I was never prepared for that either. Never would I have believed that our country would soon seem like Moscow and under a dictatorship. J.F.K. tried to warn us more than once. Again. Nice job
Thank you
Al F.
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