"So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection."
- Senator Thomas J Dodd, 1961
 
"With all due respect, I don't get confused."
- U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley
 
"To protect our democracies we have to fight against the ever-growing virus of fake news which exposes our people to irrational fear."
- French President Emmanuel Macron to the U.S. Congress
 
"The secret of happiness is freedom, and the secret of freedom is courage."
- Thucydides
KJU -JFKTMF
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An impressive charm offensive conducted by KJU. He certainly has caught the attention of Koreans in the South as well as the international community. Moon was just as impressive and both nations put on the perfect made for TV event. The Panmunjom Declaration is an impressive document and allows us all to be hopeful.  Download the declaration here:  https://bit.ly/2I2JcEi

That said the devil is in the details and actions speak louder than words.

I wonder what will KJU do if sanctions relief does not occur soon. I am sure one objective is to get sanctions relief. Will Moon violate UN and US sanctions in the near future to sustain the momentum from this north-South summit? 

Most important we need to consider if this charm offensive indicates a change to regime strategy (outlined below) or is designed to support the regime's long term strategy?

I am reminded of the story of the frog and the scorpion: Has KJU shed the scorpion's nature? Can the KFR really change?

I think we should keep in mind that there have been a number of agreements in the past that have never been successfully implemented. We should be hopeful and encouraged by the events in Panmunjom but we also need to keep a clear-eyed view of the nature of the Kim Family Regime and the history of its aggressive, threats and provocations, stated claim to to unify the peninsula under the north's control and the documented human rights atrocities that are being committed against some 25 million Koreans living in the north. Can a one day event change the nature of the brutal Kim Family Regime that has existed for some seven decades? We should never forget the people living in severe oppression in the north while we admire the charm offensive conducted by Kim Jong-un.

A peace treat negotiation will be  a complex process and will likely require security guarantees from the US and China. The north and South can choose to conclude a peace treaty on their own but the more outside nations are involved the more difficult it will be.

Regarding the possibility of a US troop withdrawal: 

If the South wants to end the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty it can give the US the one year notice of intent per article Vi here: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp) to end it and ask the US to leave.The US cannot keep troops on the peninsula if the Korean government does not authorize them to be there. The US cannot force the ROK  to maintain troops on the peninsula. US forces are present by mutual agreement.

That said the signing of a peace agreement does not mean that US forces have to be withdrawn. US forces are present because of the ROK/US Alliance and if the South needs a security guarantee and if the ROK and US governments deem the presence of US troops is necessary to provide that guarantee then troops can remain. If US troop withdrawal is a north Korean condition to conclude the peace agreement it will be up to the ROK government to determine if it will accept that condition.

I hate to be someone who throws cold water on this historic event.  There have been a number of similar "agreements" (1972, 1992, 2007, etc) and they never panned out. I still think we need to view this declaration through the lens of the KFR strategy:

Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime (not the nation state and not the Korean people living in the North - only the regime)
Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula (to guarantee regime survival)
- through 3 lines of effort: subversion, coercion, and use of force
Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance to get US forces off the Peninsula
Regime Desire: Recognition as a World Power (Nuclear Power) (Wants SALT/START talks as co-equal to US like the Soviets -will settle for Pakistan-like acceptance)

Has KJU changed his strategy?  I remain skeptical and I am not ready to change my bottom line assessment until I see substantive action by KJU:

The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats and to the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

The only way we are going to achieve a unified Korea is through a ROK led effort with the full support of the United States.  And for every scenario short of unification from addressing provocations, deterring North Korean attack, to defeating an attack, to dealing with the myriad contingencies that will arise from North Korean instability and regime collapse a strong ROK/US alliance is necessary for a successful outcome.

And lastly we will see if Korea can follow the desired path to unification: respect, reconciliation, reform, rebuilding and reunification (R5).




If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:
 
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."


De Oppresso Liber,

David S. Maxwell
  Twitter: @davidmaxwell161