March 12, 2024

Morning Comments

What Caught My Eye:

China took a corn boat off the PNW last week, pulling its O/S total down to zero. The market will be watching/wishing for some more buying (80mbu? +/-) if the USDA’s 2.1 bbu projection is to be achieved. But, should Mexico keep buying and importing U.S. corn at its current pace, the country could easily top its previous high for U.S. corn imports of 650mbuby 100 or more! Lessening the need for further Chinese buying.

TRENDS

CK, -$.0250; SK, +$.0050; SMK, +$.0200; BOK, -$.0021; WK, -$.0425; KWK, -$.0725

Dalian: CK, +$0.0500; SK, +$0.0609; SMK, +$1.12; BOK +$0.0029; POJ +$0.0030

Bursa Malaysia May Palm Oil: KPOK +37 @ 4,133 ringgit

Macro

Futures are mostly positive,awaiting the FED CPI Index #s.

WALL STREET FUTURES - Mixed:

Dow, -36; S&P, +8.75; NAS, +63

Asia- Mostly Weaker Nikkei, -0.06%; Shanghai, -0.41%; Hang Seng, +3.05%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +0.31%; FTSE, +0.97%; CAC +0.13%

Other Markets

April Gold: $-5.9 @2,183

April CRUDE: +$0.53 @$78.46

Mar U.S. Dollar Index: -0.002 @102.852

WEATHER

A fairly dry period with temps considerably warmer than normal occurs this week across southern Brazil, although some rain is likely late in the period in Rio Grande do Sul. Rain totals of 1.00”-3.00” are forecast over the next 14 days (~3.00: is normal). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms occur in central & northern Brazil over the next 14 days, although heavy rain is not expected. Totals are likely to be 1.75”-3.50” (~2.50” is normal). Temps fluctuate but stay fairly close to normal. Moderate to heavy rain occur through Fri. in Argentina. Rain totals of 1.50”-4.50” are forecast in key central and southern production areas, which will support late-corn and soybeans into mid-month.

Corn / Sorghum

CONAB, the Brazilian national supply company, will release its latest crop report at 7:00 am CDT; avg. trade estimate for Brazil corn production Is 115.90 MMT (range: 113.20-120.82) versus 113.70 in February
ATI Research: 23/24 U.S. corn ending stocks est. at 2.238 bbu, which is down 44 mbu compared to last week due to higher exports (USDA: 2.172)
Consultant: Brazil 2023/24 corn production est. is unch at 112.0 MMT, neutral to lower bias going forward; dryness is a concern in some areas
safrinha corn 93% planted last week vs. 82% last year (AgRural)
safrinha corn in #1 producing state of Mato Grosso was planted about a week earlier than normal; crop is developing normally
The Funds bought 2 K, spill-over from wheat, decent exports

SOYBEANS

CONAB, the Brazilian national supply company, will release its latest crop report at 7:00 am CDT; avg. trade estimate for Brazil soybean production Is 148.37 MMT (range: 147.30-149.26) versus 149.40 in February
ATI Research: 23/24 U.S. bean ending stocks est. at 0.359 bbu, which is down 20 mbu compared to last week due to higher exports (USDA: 0.315)
Consultant: Brazil 23/24 crop est. unch at 145.0 MMT, neutral to lower bias
nationwide harvest at 55% last week vs. 53% last year (AgRural)
after disappointing crops in 3 of the past 4 years, yields should be much better in Rio Grande do Sul this year after ample rain in Feb.
Funds sold 3 K SB, 4 SM, sold 2 BO. Mar crush, +1 @ $0.83/bu

WHEAT

Total cancellations by China of U.S. SRW wheat for 2023/24 delivery since March 7 are 18.5 mbu
ATI Research: 23/24 U.S. HRW ending stocks est. at 0.274 bbu—up 5 mbu compared to last wk as lower exports offset lower imports (USDA: 0.282)
Temps stay warmer than normal for U.S. winter wheat through Thursday
at least 1.00” of rain is likely over the next two weeks for U.S SRW wheat; higher amounts of more than 2.00” possible in mid-South
HRW: rain affects crops in CO & NE Thu.-Sat.; dry in KS, OK thru 3/22
The Funds bought 5 K, short-covering overcomes China cancellation

Energy/Ethanol

Chicago ethanol was $0.0045 higher @ $1.5845/gallon
Ethanol basis - mostly firmer
New York, +$.0225 @ $.0855; Gulf, +$.0150 @ $.0655; Dallas, +$.0050; @ $.0805; Tampa, +$.0050 @ $.1655; L.A., -$.0400 @ $.2155
RINS: 1.00 firmer: 22's, 46-48.5; 23's, 46-47; 24's, 46-47
The May RBOB/May ethanol spread is up .0077 @ $.4191 CLK, +$0.60; EBK, unch; RBK, +$0.0077; HOK, +$0.0166; NGK, +$0.0220

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY

Choice boxed beef was $1.84 higher on Monday at $308.88, and is up $2.58 compared to a week ago
5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer Price was up $1.82 vs. last week at $185.12/cwt, and is up $19.72 versus last year
The CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.07 to $81.408. April lean hog futures fell $1.1 on Monday to $83.275, and are $1.03 above the index
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.4 higher on Monday at $92.14, and is $0.80 higher versus the previous week
ATI Research: The current nearby crush value of $56.33/cwt lean hogs compares to the previous week’s value of $58.04, last month’s $50.86 and last year’s $43.67

Watch Our LIVE video at 9:00 AM today.

Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.