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Turns out plenty of eyes are still glued to the housing market as spring is in full swing. Sadly...
Shelter costs continued to fuel a sticky inflation report, this time aided by energy costs, as the latest CPI report came in hotter than expected. The result was a more volatile market and a spike in treasury yields. Retail sales doubled the consensus estimated increase in March, while the latest run of Industrial Production saw a boost thanks to manufacturing.
Later in the month, the initial run of Q1 GDP showed an annual increase of 1.6%, well below industry estimates. The Fed's seemingly favorite inflation measure - the personal consumption expenditures price index - also posted a hot figure for March.
As expected, the Federal Reserve kicked off May with news it would not change rates at this time, maintaining the current 5.25%-5.5% range that we've seen for almost a year now (since July 2023). Market estimates, which at one point called for upwards of six rate cuts this year, now show the most likely scenario as one cut in the fourth quarter. (Source: CNBC)
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