Weekly Market Bullets

for the week ending 7/5/2024

• US Equity Markets were mixed in holiday-shortened trading last week, with a weaker-than-expected US employment report highlighting a potential slowing economy yet raising the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The S&P 500 rose 2.0% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 16.7%. The Equal Weight S&P 500 continues to underperform, down 0.4% for the week and now only up 3.7% for the year. The Nasdaq rallied 3.5% for the week on strength in mega-cap tech stocks to bring its gains for the year to 22.3%, while the Russell 2000 (small cap stocks) dropped 1.0% for the week and is now down a fractional 0.02% for the year.

• Global Equity Markets were up last week following high profile elections in the UK and ongoing strength in Japan. Developed Markets increased 2.1% for the week and are now up 5.3% for the year. Emerging Markets were up 1.7% for the week to bring its gains for the year to 7.9%.

• Weaker-than-expected US economic data drove interest rates lower. The Unemployment Rate for June ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0% in May, its highest level since October 2021. Wage growth eased to 3.9% from a year ago vs. 4.1% in May. The data suggest a softening labor market, which drove the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury down to 4.28% from 4.37% the prior week. The Street now places a 72% chance that the Fed cuts rates at its meeting in September.

• Current odds suggest a candidate other than Biden will be the Democratic nominee for President. Prior to this weekend's interview broadcast, internal Democratic polling showed there was only a 44% chance that Biden would be the nominee, with the remaining 56% odds distributed across several candidates. Vice President Harris had the next best odds at 37%. If a change occurs, and how such a change would occur, remains to be seen.

Market Data

for the week ending 7/5/2024