(click above image for video commentary)

In the last week of June buyers stole Mark Twain’s sentiment that “reports of my death are greatly exaggerated”, as deal activity jumped by 5% over the previous week, the penultimate week of the quarter. An anomaly it may be, but again it shows precisely what I noted last month, the relationship between deal volume and interest rates is extremely acute. The slightest easing in rates we saw in the week prior, seemingly, generated that bump in volume. 

This was also helped by a slight increase in the number of sellers acquiescing to more moderate offers. Looking forward, the Fed also now looks keen to realize its first rate cut in September. So if you’re a real buyer get ahead of an impending wave which will likely land fully by Spring 2025. It feels like being under cover at an outdoor event as it rains; some people don’t care and they’re out there standing in the rain (metaphorically, those are our current buyers), some start to slowly come out as the rain eases, and then finally, as the skies clear, everyone comes out. For the market, the worst of the storm has passed, but it’s still raining and slowly people are coming out, tired of being restricted and they just want to get on with it. Those waiting for “perfect” conditions will sadly miss the whole event.

Something else that’s on my mind?…Perspective!

It’s all about perspective. See the chart below, look where our deal volume is relative to past years. Except for the rubber band snap-back that we experienced immediately following Covid in 2021 and into 2022, our deal volume is down, way down compared to certain years prior to 2018. 

This downward trend was exacerbated by the litany of policy driven initiatives…well-meaning initiatives which grossly (naively) miscalculated the results. On a personal level we experienced the elimination of SALT deductions (2017) and a hike in mansion and transfer taxes (2019). On a more macro level, we have seen the dissolution of the 421a tax abatement for developers at a time when we truly need to incentivize development. The proponents of eliminating these incentives thought they were taking from the big (greedy) developers and leveling the playing field. The intent was to provide more housing for the less affluent; but instead finds us in a place where we are barely seeing any construction whatsoever, particularly housing geared toward that particular sector…making the city (by the simple supply and demand principle) even less affordable.

“The affordability crunch has become particularly stark in New York where asking rents have surged 33% from pre-pandemic levels and the median sales price has climbed 24%.” - From Bloomberg’s article NYC’s Worsening Apartment Shortage Threatens to Push Costs Higher (July 2, 2024)

The disincentivization regarding development has clearly deepened an already existing housing crisis. Further, the grand slate of rental laws passed in 2019 have squeezed the viability of the small landlord, leaving most so strapped they cannot re-invest into their properties.

Bloomberg went on to say: “…building has failed to keep up with demand. From 2010 to 2023, the number of jobs in the city rose by 25%, outpacing the city’s housing stock growth of 7%, according to the New York State Department of Labor and US Census Bureau data.”

The people supporting all of these misguided initiatives are playing small ball; they’re not considering that this is a long game. We must look to the future and plant seeds for growth. YES, the developers are going to make money...lots of money; but who cares, as long as everyone is better off. We are better off when we’re all thriving. Imagine…more development provides for more jobs and more housing, more housing creates a more resilient and healthy community, a safer community and a safer community makes for more transactions i.e. more revenue for the city…much more revenue for the city. Heck, we could use the money. And I KNOW...I’m oversimplifying the issues, but we need to modify

our perspective...our mindset. Let’s go New York!!!

I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there's a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.

The Line - 206,000 Jobs Added in June (Greg Heym - Chief Economist @ BHS)

Last Week in Research

Manhattan Weekly Contract Signed Report

Inventory Report (June)

NYC’s Worsening Apartment Shortage Threatens to Push Costs Higher - Bloomberg

Real estate wades into the Biden debate – The Daily Dirt - TRD

Buyers and Sellers Are Losing Their Resolve To Stay Put – Jonathan Miller

Apartments Could Be the Next Real Estate Business to Struggle - New York Times

Manhattan roars back in new development sales – The Real Deal

An Art Collector’s Manhattan Mansion

This contemporary mansion's understated elegance and refined taste and aesthetic were conceived by architected by Roger Ferris, with interiors by Julie Hillman Design. This home was designed to provide an unparalleled experience for its residents.

Situated on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, just a half block from the central entrance of the Metropolitan Museum of Art, on one of the most picturesque park blocks, consisting of twenty-one other historic mansions, is this inconceivable 7 floor masterpiece.Asks - $95,000/month

See Full Listing Here.

An Upper West Side Triplex

w/ Private Roof Terrace

This home is a beautifully renovated 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom TRIPLEX with 10+ foot ceilings, decorative herringbone floors, crown moldings and your own private roof-top terrace. It is located in a gorgeous and meticulously maintained OWNER OCCUPIED LANDMARK TOWNHOUSE on one of the Upper West Side's truly special and... Asks - $14,995/month See Full Listing Here.

Perfect Pied-a-Terre

An Upper West Side Gem with Your Own Private Terrace

Among the most unique offerings on the entire Upper West Side, apartment 7C at the Savannah is a glorious duplex with soaring double-height ~18' floor-to-ceiling windows and your own private, fully planted ~350 sqft terrace. Additionally there is a separate Juliet balcony with a sideways view of Riverside Park. If you are seeking substantial outdoor space, bring your green thumb and your grill. Your terrace is wonderfully positioned precisely where you want it, beside your living room, making it perfect for entertaining.

Asks - $1,375,000. See Full Listing Here.

SALES BY PRICE: 1Q24 VS. 1Q23



Looking at the entire Hamptons area, East and West of the Shinnecock Canal, the high-end and low-end of the market remained largely unchanged compared to 1Q23. Most notable was a 35% increase in the number of sales in the $2M - $3M range.Particularly affecting the total dollar volume is the ultra high-end of the market. The 10 transactions above $10M in 1Q24 (only 3.85% of the total number of sales) accounted for $207 Million, or 26.3% of the total dollar volume for the year.

The Latest Market Reports - Sales: 



Manhattan's Q2 (2024): click here

Manhattan Contract Signed Report: click here

Inventory Report (June): click here

Last Week in Research: click here 

10-Year Manhattan Townhouse Report: click here

New Rental Listings (June): click here

Rental Concessions Report (May): click here

Brooklyn's Q2 (2024): click here

Second-Half 2023 Brooklyn Townhouse Report: click here

Queens Q2 (2024): click here

Riverdale Q2 (2024): click here

Other Markets:

Hamptons Q1 (2024): click here

Connecticut Q1 (2024): click here

Hoboken/Jersey City Q4 (2023): click here

Essex County, NJ Q4 (2023): click here

Hudson Valley Q1 (2024): click here

Miami Beach Q1 (2024): click here

Palm Beach's Q1 (2024): click here

Interactive Rent vs. Buy Calculator:

(courtesy NY Times) click here

Sleeping Beauties:

Reawakening Fashion

"The exhibition features approximately 220 garments and accessories spanning four centuries, all visually connected through themes of nature, which also serves as a metaphor for the transience of fashion. Visitors will be invited to smell the aromatic histories of hats bearing floral motifs; to touch the walls of galleries that will be embossed with the embroidery of select garments; and to experience—via the illusion technique known as Pepper’s ghost—how the 'hobble skirt' restricted women’s stride in the early 20th century. Punctuating the galleries will be a series of 'sleeping beauties'—garments that can no longer be dressed on mannequins due to their extreme fragility." Through September 2nd

A collection of dishes from Massara. | Alex Staniloff/Massara

Eater's Heat Map (click below) - Some of the Hottest Restaurants open right now:

This list will be updated monthly.

Eater editors get asked one question more than any other: Where should I eat right now? Here, we’ve put together a map of the latest Manhattan debuts drawing NYC’s dining obsessives.

New to the list in July : Carnitas Ramirez, a new spot from Taqueria Ramirez; Eel Bar, a tapas spot from the team behind Cervo’s; Massara, an Italian destination from Rezdôra; and, Son Del North, a standout burrito counter.

For more New York dining recommendations, check out the new hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens.