The stock indices are tumbling this morning after the August Jobs Report came in worse than expected with worse revisions of July as well. Investors are again seeing the deterioration of the labor market which had sent stock down in early August.

All three TSP stock related indices/ETFS are down more than 1.5% in the morning trading.

Bonds are rallying off the increased expectations of a 0.5% rate cut by the Fed this month.

TSP Talk AutoTracker Members

Only two members have made IFTs so far today. One member is cutting their losses and moved from stock funds to the F-fund. The other went the other direction and is buying into weakness taking on the C-fund coming from the G-fund.

Yesterday, a range of IFTs came after the Last Look Report. That included top 3 member Cash_Money who used their second IFT of September to move to 100% S-fund. They were previously holding 50% G and 50% S-fund.

Top Members

Seven members now outperform the C-fund for the year. Allocations out of stocks have lifted six of them to the top over the last week. Only two currently hold 100% stock fund allocations, Timberwoof: 100% C, and Cash_Money: 100% S.

The average allocation of these seven is:

G: 47.1%, F: 0.0%, C: 38.6%, S: 14.3%, I: 0.0%

Average Allocation of the Top 300 AutoTracker Members:

(includes premium members)

G: 13.3%, F: 2.3%, C: 56.9%, S: 17.6%, I: 6.1%

Compare to previous reports

Fund Morning Performance

30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline:

The S&P 500 (C-fund) is down 1.5%

The DWCPF (S-fund) is down 1.5%

The ETF EFA (I-fund) is down 1.6%

The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is up 0.4%

Click Here for Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I, and F-fund Tracking Indices.

Last Look Report members have exclusive access to a Last Look Report Thread on TSPTalk.com. If you are not signed up for the forum yet, you can do so here.

If you do not receive this email at or around 11:30 ET, it is posted every day on the Premium Service page before 11:40 ET.

Forum Posts

tsptalk's Market Talk - I think the bond market has concluded that we're getting a 0.25% interest rate cut, and not 0.50%. Although the odds of 0.50% went up by 7% from 40% chance to 47% chance at the CME Group.

JTH's Account Talk - We've now spent 15-sessions within a 3% retracement but have yet to commit to a hard sell off. Most of this selling has come from the Top 10 weighted holdings, many of which (could be argued) were AI-overvalued in the first place. Perhaps what we are seeing isn't a selloff but more of a reversion to the mean, an equalization back to reality.

coolhand's Account Talk - This week's NAAIM reading shows the mean average dipping a bit more than 10 pts., which puts the reading in a neutral condition or modestly bullish at best. The bears remain fully short and leveraged and the bulls are fully long and leveraged. These money managers remain somewhat cautious.

TSP Share Prices

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This newsletter was written by Thomas A Crowley (tommyiv). You can email me at tommy@tsptalk for any feedback or questions.

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