Last Look Report

Tuesday's Last Look Report

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The S-fund has turned into a runaway train. It is on track to put up its fourth straight day of gains of over 1%. The small cap index DWCPF is up 1.7% this morning.

The market now has the probability of a rate cut in September at 100%.

The S&P 500 is putting together a decent day too but it continues to lag the DWCPF in this recent rally.

After slipping 0.6% yesterday, the ETF EFA (I-fund) is trading around even this morning.

TSP Talk AutoTracker Members

Thirteen TSP Talk members are making IFTs today and all but two of them are increasing their S-fund exposure.

Members are now growing impatient and want to be part of this S-fund rally. Unlike the C-fund which is already at all-time highs, the S-fund has more than 10% to climb before reaching its all-time high price.

However, it isn't in the S-fund's history to give these free rides without consequence to those who linger too long. Check out today's TSP Talk's Market Commentary for more on this.

Average Allocation of the Top 300 AutoTracker Members:

(includes premium members)

G: 4.6%, F: 0.3%, C: 64.7%, S: 23.2%, I: 3.5%

Look back to yesterday's report to compare

The I-fund fell and took the I-fund investors out of the top 300. S-fund investors took their place. The other three TSP funds are about where they were the day before.

Fund Morning Performance

30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline:

The S&P 500 (C-fund) is up 0.4%

The DWCPF (S-fund) is up 1.8%

The ETF EFA (I-fund) is up 0.1%.

The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is up 0.2%

Click Here For Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I, and F-fund Tracking Indices.

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Today's Headlines

How Wall Street Keeps Absorbing America’s Borrowing Binge - Today, the 10-year yield is around 4.2%, while the total amount of outstanding Treasurys has topped $27 trillion. How could investor demand keep up with so much supply One major reason: Treasurys still offer a reasonable return for basically no risk, as long as they are held to maturity.

Powell Signals Rate Cut Coming Into View but Declines to Say When - Powell said inflation and economic activity had slowed broadly in line with the central bank’s expectation. Data on price pressures between April and June “do add somewhat to confidence” that inflation will return to the Fed’s target after inflation readings failed to provide such confidence earlier this year,

Bank of America’s Profit Slips - Bank of America said its second-quarter profit fell as higher interest rates continued to weigh on its lending businesses. But their finance chief said the bank expects it to improve in the second half of 2024. The stock is up more than 5%.

More News

Forum Posts

tsptalk's Market Talk - The S-fund is still negotiating the March highs with a couple of big open gaps below, so that's the fork in the road on that chart. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been churning sideways while the small caps have been exploding higher.

JTH's Account Talk - In my mind, I’m looking for a -10% correction to begin between now & mid-August, possibly bottoming in September or early November. From there the remainder of the year may prove to be mostly a recovery of the previous lost ground.

Bquat's Account Talk - Well Powell's talking point is now rate cut will come even though inflation isn't 2%. Wonder why's that but I'll take it. I raise my possible exit point again also. As Birtchtree used to say is everyone going to catch the train as it leaves the station.

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This newsletter was written by Thomas A Crowley (tommyiv). You can email me at tommy@tsptalk for any feedback or questions.

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