The Last Look Report

Stocks are holding gains into the TSP trade deadline and some TSP Talk investors don't want to be holding stocks into Monday.


The S-fund is bound for a decent single day gain. The DWCPF is up 1.56% this morning adding to its 2.31% weekly gain it started the day with.


The Federal Open Markets Commitee is set to cut rates this coming Wednesday, but there is still plenty of uncertainty of whether that will be a 0.25% or 0.50% rate cut. Last night the market projections of the later rose to from a 28% chance to a 43% chance. This adds uncertainty yet the market may prefer the deeper cut.


All of the TSP funds are on tracks for gains today.



TSP Talk AutoTracker Members


Today TSP Talk AutoTracker members are attempting to sell a high. For members have moved to 100% G-fund including the current September leader silver2828 who bought into 100% C-fund in the previous Friday. Silver2828 is already up 3.55% for September before today's action.


One member is going the other direction, buying into the C-fund. The last member left the C-fund for the I-fund.


Average Allocation of the Top 300 AutoTracker Members:

(includes premium members)


G: 8.5%, F: 1.3%, C: 63.7%, S: 19.1%, I: 3.6%


Compare to previous reports


The average allocation of the G-fund among the top 300 was 16.6% at the beginning of this week.

Fund Morning Performance

30 minutes before the TSP trade deadline:


The S&P 500 (C-fund) is up 0.6%


The DWCPF (S-fund) is up 1.7%


The ETF EFA (I-fund) is up 0.4%


The bond ETF BND (F-fund) is up 0.2%


Click Here for Real Time Quotes of the C, S, I, and F-fund Tracking Indices.


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Today's Headlines

US consumer sentiment rises in September - U.S. consumer sentiment improved in September amid subsiding inflation, though Americans remained cautious ahead of the November presidential election, a survey showed on Friday.


This piece of economic data will determine if the Fed cuts 25bps or 50bps - The Fed's decision will be based on a careful assessment of a variety of economic indicators. However, as Citi analysts suggest, retail sales could play a particularly crucial role in determining the size of the upcoming interest rate cut. The retail sales number go public on Tuesday.


Bets on 50 bps Fed rate cut in September bounce back strongly- The probability of a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September has surged overnight, according to CME Group 30-Day Fed Fund futures prices. After collapsing over the last few days to the low teens, the chances of a jumbo cut are now back to near neck-and-neck with a smaller 25 bps cut.


More News

Forum Posts

tsptalk's Market Talk - Was it the PPI yesterday, the jobless claims, or something else, but there is now a 47% change of a 0.50% rate cut next week.


DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk - Looks like all stock funds are a buy. I missed entry but will move in a bit ... likely to every fund. I like to enter when at least two indicators go positive/crossover (green circles on RSI, Stochastic, MACD).


JTH's Account Talk - Here’s a 52-Week High review of our progress from Thursday’s close to the 7-session low, then going back to the 5-Aug -9.71% correction. At present 43% of the Top-40 are within -5% striking distance to their 52-Week High, they have an index weighting of 11.46%.

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This newsletter was written by Thomas A Crowley (tommyiv). You can email me at tommy@tsptalk for any feedback or questions.

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