"You never know how close you are to turning the corner
until you turn the corner.
Keep moving forward, one step at a time.
You will get there."
Fawn Germer
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Is it too early to say we're turning the corner? Maybe.
The end of the pandemic means different things to different people. For some, it means that people are no longer getting sick from COVID-19. For others, it means that people are no longer dying from COVID-19. And for others, it means that they have stopped worrying about COVID-19 and have gone back to their pre-pandemic lives, perhaps because they've received their vaccinations or because they've simply chosen to go back to their pre-pandemic lives.
The World Health Organization termed the spread of the coronavirus a "public health emergency of international concern" in January 2020. It wasn't until mid-March that they changed their terminology to "pandemic." Regardless of what it's called, how individuals behave is what ultimately matters.
Fully eliminating transmission of the coronavirus, the most straight-forward definition of the pandemic's end, probably won't happen anytime soon, if ever. “This would require very high levels of vaccination coverage,” according to Celine Gounder, an infectious-disease specialist at New York University. And the United States will probably never reach high enough vaccination rates to do so. Nor will the rest of the world, for that matter.
So, perhaps the answer to the question rests on when we have the virus sufficiently under control. And that's a numbers game. According to Paul Offit, Director of the Vaccine Education Center and an expert in virology and immunology at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, “the doors will open” when the country gets to fewer than 5,000 new cases per day, and fewer than 100 deaths per day. To put that in context, the flu kills 20,000 to 50,000 Americans annually, averaging out to between 55 and 140 deaths per day. “This risk is largely considered acceptable by the public,” observes Joseph Eisenberg, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan. “The end to the emergency portion of the pandemic in the United States should be heralded . . . by the curtailing of severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19,” suggests Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California San Francisco. “Fewer than 100 deaths a day, to mirror the typical mortality of influenza in the U.S. over a typical year, is an appropriate goal.”
The comparison between flu deaths and COVID-19 deaths isn't perfect, however. Deaths attributed to COVID-19 are directly reported to public health authorities, while deaths from seasonal flu are CDC estimates based on national surveillance data that have been fed into statistical models. And testing for flu doesn't occur with nearly the same frequency as testing for the coronavirus. Additionally, neither count takes into consideration underlying factors. But the 100 deaths per day is a standard people can understand and so it will likely be the standard by which we measure the end of the pandemic.
It will likely take months for the number of daily COVID-19 deaths to fall below 100. Which means that, for some people, the pandemic will feel like it will never end. For others, it will feel that it’s over long before it actually is. That’s why public health experts continue to urge all of us to hold firm even as the pandemic seems to be receding. “We’re lifting mitigation measures too soon,” cautions Dr. Gounder. “We’re taking our foot off the brake before putting the car into park.” She warns that, if too many people ignore that message and decide the pandemic is "over" for them, it may very well put off the moment when we can say that the pandemic is over for everyone.
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Will being vaccinated stop the spread of COVID-19?
Many scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that the vaccines currently being administered will prevent transmission of the coronavirus from one person to another. Unfortunately, for many people, this is interpreted as an admission that the vaccines don't work. That’s not the case. The vaccines prevent disease.
Limited data are beginning to suggest the vaccines will at least partly reduce transmission. Known as "sterilizing immunity," two recent studies show some pretty favorable results. One from the UK found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine cut down a person's chance of transmitting the virus by 86 percent. The other, from Israel, found an 89.4 percent reduction in transmissibility. Johns Hopkins epidemiologists M. Kate Grabowski and Justin Lessler argue, “We are confident vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the chances of transmitting the virus.”
Until the data are confirmed, however, we won't know with certainty how well vaccines prevent infection. And as other vaccines come to market, such as the newly authorized one from Johnson & Johnson, more research will be critical. Viral variants will also complicate things.
Adding a bit of confusion to the complexity is the fact that the terms "COVID-19" (the disease) and "coronavirus" (the infection) are often used interchangeably. "You can’t have the disease without the virus, but you can have the virus without the disease, as many asymptomatic people already know," writes Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center. That's why it remains important to continue masking and distancing in the presence of unvaccinated people.
The race to create vaccines against the disease caused by the coronavirus meant that clinical trials needed to focus on something easily observable - symptoms of COVID-19. Put simply, it was faster to identify participants who developed symptoms of COVID and then confirm infection with the virus, than it was to determine whether participants became infected with the virus but remained asymptomatic.
Vaccines often protect against diseases but not the viruses that cause them. Those of us of a certain age know that vaccines that don't prevent infection can still stop epidemics. The polio vaccine, developed by Dr. Jonas Salk, doesn't provide sterilizing immunity, but it did result in the rapid elimination of polio in the United States beginning in the 1950s. The Salk vaccine was highly protective against the disease and reduced the spread of polio because so many people were vaccinated early and could clear their infection.
Yogi Berra once commented, "it ain't over till it's over." He was talking about the 1973 National League pennant race. The same is true of the pandemic. It doesn't matter how we feel about our own risk of exposure, we need to respect the risk others may be facing. Until the numbers reflect a sustained reduction in spread, we haven't turned the corner. Please, continue to do everything you can to keep yourself and those around you safe and healthy.
I remain forever grateful for all that you do.
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Thank you for your vigilance. We want you to stay safe,
healthy, and informed.
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If you have already received your first COVID-19 vaccination, you will be contacted directly with the date and time for your second vaccination. You do not need to register to receive your second dose. Simply follow the directions in your notification.
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Tips for Registering for Vaccination
To Register:
Everyone who wants to receive the COVID-19 vaccination needs to register with the Department of Health through their vaccine registration portal.
Once your registration is complete and you hit SUBMIT, you'll receive a text and/or email with a seven-digit confirmation code. Remember this code. You will need it to log in to your registration and to register for any vaccination events.
To Be Vaccinated:
If Kitchen Angels learns of vaccination events, we will make every effort to notify volunteers. But please don't rely on us as your only source of vaccination event information. As more healthcare providers and pharmacies begin offering vaccinations, and as the state expands the priority groups eligible for vaccination, notices will be sent directly through the state's vaccine registration portal.
Not all vaccination events are being conducted by the Department of Health although all registrations must still go through the Department's registration portal. As health care providers and pharmacies receive supplies of vaccine, they will conduct vaccination events, coordinating those events through the Department's portal.
Each vaccination event is given a unique EVENT CODE which is required to sign up for a vaccination. Once you have an event code, log into your registration and click on Schedule your Appointment. You will be asked to enter the event code, then click the blue Find Event button. Select the location and the time you prefer based on what's available.
Vaccination events fill up quickly. You may get a red message Event Full. Don't despair. Some people cancel their registrations at the last minute and, if inventory allows, the state may make more doses available for a specific event, opening additional slots for scheduling. Keep checking, even up to the day of the scheduled event.
The Health Department will also send texts if they determine that a particular event has unused vaccine doses (typically because someone failed to show up for their appointment). This is a last minute, first-come-first-served opportunity, however. Reply to the text and you may be able to secure an immediate appointment. Be prepared to get to the site as quickly as possible.
Day of the Event:
On the day of your scheduled vaccination, you must fill out a Medical Questionnaire, which you will find when you log into your account through the vaccine registration portal. The questionnaire can only be completed on the day of, and must be completed prior to, your vaccination.
Dress appropriately for the weather as you may need to stand outside in line, depending on the location of the event. Wheelchairs and other assistance will likely be available. You'll have to ask at the time of the event, however.
Bring your seven-digit confirmation code. If you forget it, staff can still look you up by name but it takes a bit longer. You will be given a vaccination card that lists the vaccine manufacturer and lot number of the vaccine you will receive, and your date of vaccination. It also includes the date for your second vaccination. Keep the card in a safe place. As a precaution, take a photo of both the front and back of the card and keep it on your cell phone.
After you've received your vaccination, you'll be asked to wait at least 15 minutes to make sure you don't experience any allergic reaction to the vaccine. Thus far, there have been only a few instances of allergic reactions.
Staff and volunteers have reported very mild symptoms associated with the vaccination including soreness at the injection site or generally in the arm, some fatigue, body aches/chills, and headache during the first 24 hours. These symptoms are the vaccine teaching your body to prepare for the possibility of infection. They are not COVID.
If you have questions, email Lauren. She will answer emails as quickly as she can.
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Keep Us Informed!
Although all unnecessary travel is strongly discouraged under New Mexico’s Public Health orders, we know some volunteers will be traveling. Please let Lauren know about any plans you have that will require you to be away from Kitchen Angels. The sooner you let her know, the easier it will be to ensure we have no holes in coverage.
We will continue to make case-by-case determinations for how long volunteers need to quarantine after traveling or other activities. For New Mexico Department of Health information on the risk status of other states click here.
If you're not sure about how to answer one of the items on the assessment, check with Lauren. We'd rather you refrain from volunteering than risk infecting staff, other volunteers, or clients.
Even if you've been vaccinated, we're all still at risk of contracting the virus.
If you need to self-quarantine, please do! It's not just Kitchen Angels that may be at risk but your friends, colleagues and others.
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Before you return to Kitchen Angels,
take a moment and ask yourself . . .
- Am I able to work a full shift wearing a face mask?
- Can I hear well enough from six feet away if the other person is speaking through a face mask?
- Am I willing to work a different shift than the one I previously worked?
- Can I commit to showing up to my shift on-time and without canceling at the last minute?
- Can I adapt to a new environment and new routine?
- Can I reliably communicate with the Volunteer Coordinator?
- Do I feel safe being back in the public sphere?
- Can I maintain appropriate risk-mitigating practices when I'm not at Kitchen Angels?
If you answer "NO" to any of these questions, you're not ready to return. If you're not sure, check with Lauren.
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