Newsletter - January 2023

The Global Update Blog

What To Look For As We Enter Into 2023

2022 was a year of losses punctuated by uncertainties between three potential outcomes: inflation, a soft landing scenario, and recession... Looking to the New Year, there is a wide range of speculation...

 

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Trading the News – What We Can Learn From the Market’s CPI – Driven Price Action

On the morning of 12.13.22, the long-awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) was slated for release... If you’re trading any of the major index futures, you might have noticed your clearing firm or exchange...

 

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Using Stochastics in Your Trading

Oscillators can be helpful for traders who are looking for potential “oversold” and “overbought” conditions in ultra-short time frames... Among the more popular oscillators is the Stochastics Oscillator... The oscillator ranges between 0 - 100...


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Algo System of the Month: DaGGoR Rider M1C YM

Many traders choose to diversify their portfolios with algorithmic trading systems. The following system has been selected as the broker's choice for this month.

REQUIRED CAPITAL: $2,000*

PRODUCT: E-Mini Dow Jones future

SYSTEM TYPE: Intraday

COST: $100 / month

COMMISSION: $7.50 per side  

The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.   

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NEW YEAR'S DAY (OBSERVED)

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REPORT

US INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS & SERVICES

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION REPORT

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS - FULL REPORT

MONTHLY WHOLESALE TRADE: SALES & INVENTORIES

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX REPORT

BUSINESS FORMATION STATISTICS

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL & FOOD SERVICES REPORT

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE: INVENTORIES & SALES REPORT

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX REPORT

NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION REPORT

ADVANCE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT

ADVANCE REPORT ON DURABLE GOODS - MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS...

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES REPORT

PRELIMINARY US IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION OF STEEL PRODUCTS

HOUSING VACANCIES & HOMEOWNERSHIP

Key Events That Moved the Market in Dec. 2022

The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.


S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart - Dec 1-30, 2022 (Source: Tradingview)


December 1

  • Wall Street started the month in a holiday “red” as November’s upbeat momentum lost steam. 
  • The Dow fell 195 points while the S&P lost a mere 0.09% and the Nasdaq eked out a 0.10% gain.
  • Signs that inflation may be easing slowly gave a slight and short-lived boost to the market as economists focus on the upcoming jobs report. 

December 2 

  • Stocks ended the week mixed as the Nasdaq pulled back 0.40% and the S&P slipped 0.12% while Dow clawed back losses and ended in the green with a 34-point gain, the day;’s biggest winner.
  • A higher-than-expected jobs report helped offset the fears of an imminent recession but set the stage for higher inflation.

December 5

  • The week started with stocks in the doldrum after a weak end to the previous week’s session. 
  • The Dow plunged 583 points with the S&P and Nasdaq down 1.79% and 1.73% respectively. 
  • Hot economic data scalded the market with the jobs report followed by a higher-than-expected November ISM reading.

December 6

  • Stocks fall further as recession fears emerge once again.
  • The Dow fell 351 points while the S&P slipped by 1.44% and the Nasdaq tumbled 2.01%.
  • Consumers take a defensive approach to the market as the utilities sector alone holds up the S&P. 

December 7

  • A choppy and seemingly stagnant market fluctuated throughout the day as the Nasdaq lost 0.45%, the S&P slipped 0.19%, and the Dow ended virtually unchanged after falling from a 178-point gain. 
  • Multiple reads indicate that the rate of inflation is slowing down as bond yields fell lower while rate-sensitive stocks rose.

December 8

  • Wall Street does a 180 as the market rises for the first time in the week. 
  • The Dow edged 183 points higher while S&P (+0.75%) and Nasdaq (+1.22%) stocks rose moderately.
  • An unprecedented weekly jobless claim led investors to reconsider their fears over the possibility of a severe recession.

December 9

  • The market ended with losses after the only positive day of the week. 
  • The Dow tumbled 305 points while the S&P slid 0.73% and the Nasdaq fell 0.64%.
  • A higher-than-expected PPI report soured the mood as bond yields ticked higher. 
  • Bear in mind that higher PPI inflation can sometimes mean higher consumer inflation in the months to come.

December 12

  • The week kicked off with a major market rebound as consumers shook off the previous week’s pessimism. 
  • The Dow jumped 528 points as the S&P gained 1.43% and the Nasdaq rose 1.24%. 
  • A glimmer of good news, namely that one-year inflation expectations had fallen short of expectations outweighed the fact that bond yields continued to creep upward.

December 13 

  • Stocks edged higher on rough ground as the Dow clawed a 103-point gain after going 700 points into the red while the S&P rose 0.73% and the Nasdaq jumped an impressive 1.09%. 
  • A rally boosted by signs of slowing inflation lost steam as the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting came into focus.

December 14

  • Wall Street ended in the red this Wednesday as mixed news shaped the course of the market. 
  • The Dow lost 142 points while S&P (-0.60%) and Nasdaq (-0.79%) stocks drifted lower to the session close. 
  • An expected 50-point rate hike helped bring the market higher but sentiment around the end target rate hike brought the market back down to reality. 

December 15

  • The market continued its march downward as the previous Federal Reserve meeting weighed heavily on stocks. 
  • The Dow plunged 764 points while the S&P lost 2.49% and the Nasdaq plummeted 3.37%.
  • Investors wrestled with a darkening economic outlook while preparing for a possible recession in 2023. 

December 16

  • The market comes to the close of a tough week as stocks seem to be heading towards the first red December since 2018.
  • The Dow fell 282 points while the S&P slid 1.11% and the Nasdaq lost 1.42%.
  • While stocks and index futures/options expired, financials and big-cap tech stocks underperformed this session.

December 19

  • Wall Street edges lower as the S&P is red for the fourth session in a row while tech stocks continue to fall. 
  • The Nasdaq suffered a loss of 1.42% while the S&P fell 0.90% and the Dow slid 163 points lower.
  • Concerns of inflation led to further recession worries as investors began to feel a bit more uneasy with the Fed’s actions in slowing the economy.

December 20

  • The market closed higher and snapped a four-day losing streak while shaking off a surprise move from the Bank of Japan.
  •  The Dow jumped 92 points and the S&P drifted 0.10% higher but the Nasdaq ended in the red by a mere 0.11%.
  • The Bank of Japan tweaked bond yields to make room for the growth of long-term interest rates.

December 21

  • Market gains continue for a second day despite chip giant Micron deciding to lay off 10% of its workforce.
  • The Dow was up 527 points while the S&P and Nasdaq had modest gains of 1.49% and 1.48%.
  • Nike posted the strongest individual performance thanks to better-than-expected earnings, greatly boosting the Dow. 

December 22

  • A tough Thursday selloff led the major averages to close the day in the red. 
  • The Dow fell 349 points while the S&P lost 1.45% and the Nasdaq slid 2.49%. 
  • Micron’s laying off of 10% of its workers weighed down on the Nasdaq along with other semiconductor names underperforming the session. 

December 23

  • Wall Street closed the week slightly in the green after stocks rose from their lows on the first day that would be known as a “Santa Claus Rally”.
  • The Dow rose 176 points, the S&P gained 0.59%, and the Nasdaq was up 0.27%. 
  • Energy prices performed the best as Russia announced that it may cut its output as a response to the G7 price cap. 

December 27

  • Wall Street faced a choppy trading session right after the holiday break with mixed news sculpting the market. 
  • Dow stocks rebounded from a 300-point fall and ended merely 37 points lower while the S&P sold 0.40% lower and the Nasdaq fell 1.48%. 
  • Energy stocks rose with news that China would ease Covid restrictions while Tesla and Apple weighed down on the Nasdaq along with other tech stocks underperforming for the year. 

December 28

  • The market edged lower as an early-day rally turned sour, the Nasdaq bearing the worst of it once again.
  • Dow stocks fell 366 points while the S&P fell by 1.20% and the Nasdaq, the biggest loser again, was 1.32% in the red. 
  • A weaker-than-expected home sales report indicated the tolls that higher prices are taking on the housing market while rising bond yields continue to push down tech stocks. 

December 29

  • Wall Street recovered from Wednesday's losses as the Dow ended 345 points higher along with the S&P rising 1.75% and the Nasdaq gaining 2.54%, now the biggest winner of the session. 
  • The Dow and the S&P broke into the green for the week while the Nasdaq drew toward breaking even. 
  • Higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims helped reassure investors that the rate hike policy put in place by the Federal Reserve is showing its effects in the labor market.

December 30 (Mid-day reporting)

  • It appears as if stocks are going to end the last trading day of the year in the red.
  • Mid-day, the Dow slipped 247 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 shed 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9%.
  • All three indexes are heading for their worst year since 2008.
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*Details regarding DaGGoR Rider M1C YM:

Please be aware that the suggested capital to trade this system is $20,000. Please speak to your broker for more information about this trading system. The returns for the systems listed are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Margins are subject to change at anytime without notice. All material herein was compiled from sources considered reliable. However, there is no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this material.