August 30, 2024

The fight between Russia and Ukraine is taking on some new dimensions, but Putin seems to be ignoring the home front. Over the past several weeks, the seemingly entrenched conflict has escalated further- with Ukraine capturing a significant stretch of Russian territory, Russia launching a devastating attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Poland scrambling fighter jets after alleged Russian drones entered its airspace, and Belarus positioning thousands of troops along its border with Ukraine. But as Putin grapples with how to achieve victory, the implications of the war shifting and continuing could start to impact his own country in a way that’s not sustainable.

Ukrainian troops are continuing their assault within Russian territory and after three weeks of intense fighting, Ukraine still controls most of the land seized in its initial surprise attack and is fortifying its positions in anticipation of a Russian counteroffensive. The Kremlin, unwilling to divert significant resources from its main focus in Donbas, is instead relying on inexperienced conscripts and reserve units to push back the Ukrainian forces.

Despite the political embarrassment and the intelligence failure of the Ukrainian attack, Putin remains fixated on capturing Pokrovsk, a crucial transport and logistics hub in Donbas. While Ukraine has made notable gains in Kursk and Belgorod, Russia continues to make slow progress along the main front line, though at significant human and material cost. American and European intelligence both estimate Russian casualties at around 1,000 men per day. However, Ukraine is also facing shortages in manpower, and Russia has more resources to replenish its ranks. 

Ukraine’s incursion into Russia had multiple objectives and it could also have some unintended consequences that weaken Putin in the process. Militarily, it aims to divert Russian forces from Donbas, a goal which has not yet been realized. Politically, it seeks to humiliate Putin – and there are reportedly increasing tensions in the Kremlin and among the power elites, boost Ukrainian morale, demonstrate strength to the Western backers of President Zelenskyy, and foster war-weariness within Russia. But the captured territory in Kursk and Belgorod is also significant to Russia’s food security and economy- as that land is an important source of Russian pork, poultry, and milk production and its capture could impact prices nationwide.

The proximity of Ukrainian troops to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, a major energy supplier for Central Russia, poses another significant threat. Nineteen Russian provinces depend on the plant for energy, as well as most of Central Russia’s industrial enterprises. Long-range Ukrainian artillery, increasingly in use by Ukraine, could have the capability to hit the plant’s power grids. Further, the cost of Russia’s military operations to reclaim Kursk and Belgorod, including the transportation of tens of thousands of personnel and the construction of new fortifications, is estimated to be between $30-50 million USD per day.

While it’s possible that both Ukraine and Russia are trying to advance their positions ahead of potential negotiations, there are multiple variables at play that could contribute to what happens next – including the evolution of the type of weapons Ukraine receives from its allies and what the rules are for using those weapons. But there’s also the potential impact of the US election and how the next administration approaches the conflict, the potential slowdown in fighting during the winter freeze, and the appetite of other important players like China to let the battle continue.

Meanwhile, we can expect more escalation and direct attacks on Russian targets and Putin will need to scramble to keep up. Already Russian confidence is down after the Kursk capture and there’s reportedly growing concern for another mobilization. Indeed, Ukraine has brought the fight too close to home and it if things continue this way it could impact Russian food security, physical security, and political security.

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.