March 30-April 5

Mid-April is when the fans’ anticipation for the NFL Draft reaches its peak, and it’s hard to find a news service that isn’t touting its latest mock draft. For people in the industry, however, speculation ranges beyond just the draft. They know that the seasonal hustle and bustle of NFL front offices takes place not long after the last pick is announced. 

Will this be a busy offseason for hiring and firing of NFL scouts and executives? That’s always hard to handicap. For a few reasons, the conditions are ripe for change.

New (and newish) GMs: This offseason, four teams (Chargers, Commanders, Panthers, Raiders) hired new general managers, while one other team (New England) elevated an in-house executive to the de facto role. Meanwhile, last year, two new GMs (Cardinals, Titans) were hired. What normally follows the hiring of a new GM is some re-shaping of the front office, though as salaries have grown, some teams have become reluctant to pay scouts not to scout. That means the season after the new GM arrives normally is when the sorting starts. Though neither 2023 or 2024 were especially turbulent when it comes to GMs – seven new GMs were hired in the 2021 offseason alone, while six new GMs took over in consecutive offseasons in 2016 and 2017 – when combined, the ’23 and ’24 offseasons make for a lot of job changes, potentially. 

A greater emphasis on analytics: Last year, we saw an explosion in the number of analytics staffers changing teams as well as the expansion of the analytics rooms for several teams. For the most part, those new (or beefed-up) salaries are coming out of the scouting budget, which means many teams are having to make subtractions from traditional scouting if they choose to add on the analytics side. We anticipate another year of increasing numbers, analytics-wise. That may be at the expense of scouts.

A growing stomach for change: Though more teams are putting off automatic dismissal of scouts when a new GM arrives, we’re still seeing more moves overall. There were 200 total moves (hirings and firings) in NFL front offices last offseason, while we recorded 298 in the 2022 offseason and 286 in 2021. In the six previous seasons, the average was about 130-140 total moves. 

Simple fate: Sources tell us many of the staffs with new GMs have scouts whose contracts end on May 1. 

So, from the looks of it, change is coming. But where will it be? Typically, anywhere from 20-25 percent of all moves involved pro-side professionals (assistants, scouts, directors or other in-house evaluators). That means, if it’s another 300-move offseason, we could see 75-80 pro evaluators changing places. As for analytics staffers, we haven’t historically tracked changes in that area of the game, though as their roles and impact grow, we’re considering adding them to our big board. Finally, on the cap side, we’ve seen a lot of turbulence already with Jake Rosenberg announcing his decision to leave the Eagles last week and the Seahawks adding a veteran Director of Football Administration in Joey Laine just this week. Also, in January, the Panthers named former Chiefs VP of Football Operations Brandt Tillis, Kansas City’s lead negotiator, as its new Executive VP of Football Operations. 

When it comes to new scouting assistant hires, there were 14 added to nine teams last offseason (49ers, Bears, Browns, Colts, Giants, Lions, Patriots, Saints and Vikings), which was a down year as compared to the previous two. In 2022, we saw 24 new scouting assistants hired to 13 teams (49ers, Bears, Browns, Bucs, Cardinals, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Giants, Jaguars, Patriots and Titans). In 2021, 27 were hired by 16 teams (49ers, Broncos, Browns, Cardinals, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Jaguars, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Saints, Titans and Vikings). Though only six scouting assistants were hired by a total of three teams in the 2020 offseason, the pandemic made it an anomalous year, for sure. We expect a minimum of 20 hires for 10-12 teams this cycle.

So what have we heard with regard to specific moves? Plenty, and we started digging into it this week. Obviously, we’re monitoring things with all the teams that have new GMs, but we also could see new faces in other addresses, as well, as we covered in our Rep Rumblings reports on Wednesday and Thursday.

So far, we’ve tracked 32 moves on our Scouting Changes Grid this offseason, which includes Brandian Ross’ departure from the Packers this week. Make sure you’re keeping up with all the action (and all the rumors) in our Rep Rumblings reports. 

Here’s a look at what else was happening in the business of pro and college football this week.

This week in football: Here are a few things that happened this week that you might have missed.

• Great pay for a GA: Colorado’s new grad assistant hire is former Bucs defensive lineman Warren Sapp, and though having a Hall of Famer (Class of 2013) on staff is quite the addition, he’s getting paid more handsomely than most schools’ entire GA staff. At $150,000, the ex-Buc to have to subside on mac and cheese while living in the dorm and driving a 2004 Buick. 
• McDonough wins: Speaking of paydays, former Cardinals executive Terry McDonough won a $3 million judgement in his defamation lawsuit against Arizona. But wait, there’s more. Wednesday, McDonough filed civilly, this time for defamation, negligence and intentional infliction of distress by the team, owner Michael Bidwill, his law team (Gallagher & Kennedy) and his lawyer, Don Johnsen. 
• Williams a new Rebel: Former 49ers and Rams executive Mike Williams has landed in Oxford, Miss., where he’s the new Senior Director of Player Personnel at Ole Miss. Williams is one of a growing number of ex-league scouts and evaluators who are finding new opportunities on the college level. We discussed how he got there, as we hear it, in Wednesday’s report.

Catching Up: Patrick Williams, 38, spent seven years in player evaluation with the Ravens, starting out as a Nunn-Wooten fellow and finishing up as the team’s Southwest area scout. We caught up with him last week.

• Where are you living and what are you doing now?: “I’m in Desoto, Texas, and I work for the fire department. I’m a firefighter and paramedic.” 

• Do you miss the job? What do you miss most?:  “I miss the guys. I was fortunate enough in Baltimore to be around a great group of guys. It felt like family. It took time to get adjusted and used to not being around them, but I still keep in contact with them. They’re like you’re college buddies. When I talk to my son . . .  I was living in Baltimore and covering the Southwest (when he was born), so his birth certificate says Baltimore, Md., and my daughter’s the same way. Down in Texas, it’s all Cowboy country, but people ask me, and I say, ‘I’m a Ravens fan.’ (Ravens GM) Eric DeCosta does a good job trying to be innovative and figuring out how to be better, bringing the guys together and building that camaraderie. He’s a big prankster, too, so the pranks around the building, talking football, builds that. It’s not just armchair QBs, but people who understand the value of having a legitimate guard or the body type of a center, that kind of thing. But I wouldn’t say I miss it. I miss the camaraderie and talking about the game, but I enjoy my free time. I couldn’t see myself doing anything else than what I do now. I am a very present father and I think finding the balance of it all was important. I think Covid helped me redefine things.” 

• Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues?: “On the reg. I’m the type of dude, when I think about you, I call you. I reach out to (Ravens Senior Player Personnel Executive) Vince Newsome, I’ll send (Ravens Director of Player Personnel) George Kokinis a text, I’ll call (Ravens Director of College Scouting) David Blackburn, I spoke to (former Ravens scout) Lonnie Young the other day. A lot of guys, you may not have talked to them every day, but you’d see them at Texas Tech or Oklahoma Baptist. That’s probably the thing I miss the most is the camaraderie and relationships mean a lot, and so I keep them up. When I think about you, I call you.” 

• Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)?: “I go to more high school games now. College . . . I had this conversation the other day. College and pro games, it feels different not working. I’d really rather watch a pro game at home. If’ I’m not at a college game early, looking at body types . . . I like looking at guys on the sideline, and not getting as invested in the actual games. I also have kids I mentor and try to help along the way. If I have someone I’m invested in, I can help steer them. That’s the fun part for me. I always find myself training someone or giving them tips. Even now, I’m a firefighter, but on my off days, I’m trying to find a way to stay around (the game).”

• Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game?: “It’s all the guys that I’ve scouted, the friends I have on other staffs, and the organizations, too. I’m ride-or-die Baltimore, but if Pittsburgh is playing, I’m watching Pittsburgh because I have so much respect for (head coach) Mike Tomlin and their organization. . . I like good football organizations, man. You don’t have to second-guess yourself with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, even Buffalo of late, the teams that make good football decisions and put forth a good product. But it’s all players I’ve scouted, people I’ve worked for, or (players) I’ve brought up in a meeting that I want to fight for. Like Atlanta, too. (Falcons Assistant Director of College Scouting) Dwaune Jones. I like how he did things when I was around him.” 

Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.

Speed and sizzle: This week’s guest on the Scouting the League podcast was speed specialist extraordinaire Tony Villani, founder of one of the elite combine prep programs in the game, Ft. Lauderdale-based XPE Sports. For the last two years, Villani has been on a campaign – conducted via conversations with NFL Combine officials and sometimes on social media – to erase what he sees as inaccurate measuring of 40 times in Indianapolis. He brought his case to the Scouting the League podcast this week, co-hosted by former Falcons scout Rodrik David and ITL’s Neil Stratton. Villani’s appearance got people talking across the industry, and may even prompt him to hire security until things blow over. So what did he say? Who’s got him frustrated? What needs to be done to fix things? You’ll have to listen for yourself. If you’re an agent, scout, speed trainer or anyone else who cares about the draft process, you need to set aside some time to hear him out. Do that here.

More on the transfer portal: At Inside the League, we’re doing all we can to get people in the industry “coached up” on the transfer portal from every side. To that end, we got fresh insights from another mid-major personnel director on how the portal works from a non-football factory perspective. Here’s what we covered:

• The difficulty of luring a Power-5 player vs. an FCS player, and which is harder to sign.
• The most valuable positions in the transfer portal.
• Why players (and coaches) don’t want players considering a position change.
• How technology is a force multiplier for a smallish school

And plenty more. We feel that cracking the portal code is an important job for anyone in the industry right now, and we’re trying to do our part to make that happen. Check out this week’s post at Succeed in Football; we hope you find it educational and informative. 

Last week: Does a mock draft really tell you what’s going to happen on draft day? Of course not. Still, mocks are fun, and we’ve found them to be a decent bellwether on what’s ahead for the last weekend of the month. Check out our latest review of seven draft services and their impressions of what’s ahead on Day 1 of the ’24 draft here. While you’re there, get first impressions from scouts on the first-ever Big 12 Pro Day (they differ significantly from the opinions of agents, which we published Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week) and catch up with former NFL scout Marcus Hendrickson, Director of Player Personnel at the University of Minnesota, in last week’s edition. 

Next week: Wow! Less than three weeks to go until the 2024 NFL Draft. That means another week of Top-30 visits, then final adjustments take place before it all goes down. While others are fine-tuning their mock drafts, the members of the football business community are still at work. Here’s what we’ll be monitoring in the next seven days. 

• Our Rep Rumblings roll on next week. We’ll have more buzz on the openings coming in front offices, plus any late agent firings, news from the UFL and more. 
• The final New Agent Zoom for 2024 will take place, tentatively, Thursday at 8 p.m. ET, though we’re still waiting for our guest, former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer, to confirm. If you’re a first-year agent, and you’re part of the ITL family, stay tuned to your inbox for more details and get your questions ready. Not with us yet? Hurry up and register.
• At last, we have a date for the 2024 NFLPA Exam. It’s Monday, July 29, a little later than we’re used to of late. But don’t take that to mean you should put things off. If you haven’t started preparing yet, we recommend you don’t tarry, and our study guide is a great place to start. Already got the guide? Here’s the registration link for Exam 1. Need to hear instruction from a good teacher? Our next session with Ian Greengross is April 18. Hang in there.
• We’re working on our Profile Reports for 2024+. We hope to have our first editions in the coming week. 
• The Scouting the League podcast is growing in momentum, and we aren’t stopping anytime soon. We’ll be back with another episode Wednesday. 
• We’ll catch up with former Falcons scout Justin Schaaf, who came from a military background to NFL player evaluation, in our Catching Up feature as part of the Friday Wrap next week.
• With 10 days left until the April portal window opens, we’re thinking of more ways to unpack an exciting new segment of the industry. Whatever we dig up will go into our weekly blog.
• The closer we get to the draft, the more teams start looking to make the front office maneuvers they’ve been saving for the post-draft period. If any of such moves take place this week, we’ll be adding them to the Scouting Changes Grid. The best way to stay up to the minute on all the scouting changes we uncover is by following us on Twitter here.

There’s a lot going on, obviously, but then there always is. You don’t want to get left in the locker room. Join us today and know what your competition knows.