Pheno Forecasts


We hope that the USA National Phenology Network's Pheno Forecasts were useful this year in informing you when pests were active in your area.

This year, we sent you email notifications two weeks and again six days before the threshold was reached at your location for the life cycle stage of interest for each species you selected from our list. We currently offer forecasts for apple maggot, Asian longhorned beetle, bagworm, bronze birch borer, eastern tent caterpillar, emerald ash borer, hemlock woolly adelgid, lilac borer, magnolia scale, pine needle scale, spongy moth, and winter moth.

You can update which Pheno Forecast notifications you receive here.

We want to hear your feedback on these Pheno Forecasts. Please complete the surveys below for the Pheno Forecasts you have been receiving. Your input will help ensure that the forecasts are most useful to you.

Emerald ash borer
Asian longhorned beetle
All other species
What did you report on insect pests this year?

In total, 49 observers tracked 11 Pest Patrol species at 37 total sites this year through Nature's Notebook. You reported "yes" records of apple maggot, eastern tent caterpillar, emerald ash borer, evergreen bagworm moth, hemlock woolly adelgid, pine needle scale, and spotted lanternfly.

How did the Pheno Forecasts match up to your observations this year?

The graph below shows the agreement between the Pheno Forecasts for each species and the data reported by Nature's Notebook observers. Overall there was great agreement between the forecasts and your observations, with 70-94% accuracy. There were very few instances where the forecast predicted the absence of the insect but you indicated the insect was present.

Did you earn your Pest Patrol Badge this year?

Submit observations of pests six times in a year and you can earn the Pest Patrol badge featured at right.

How do we forecast activity of pests?
Insect pest forecasts are based on USA-NPN Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) map products and published GDD thresholds. References for the published thresholds used to generate the forecasts appear on the individual species pages linked from our Pheno Forecast page.


Erin Posthumus


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