Activities are really ramping up Gulf-wide, with glider operators in the upper and lower Gulf and Caribbean making deployment plans, and new models and tracking capabilities being developed. While we can all hope that the El Niño will suppress tropical storm and hurricane activity for us, please be sure to make your own preparations before the season’s peak!

Hurricane season is also a good opportunity to mention some great news for coastal communities: NOAA has been directed to invest $3.3 billion to support a climate-ready nation via the Inflation Reduction Act, including a $100 million, five-year investment through the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). These dollars will fund coastal resilience projects that advance existing regional and national priorities and support decision making for communities that face coastal hazards, ecosystem change, harmful algal blooms, offshore wind development and have navigation operational and safety needs.

June 1 kicked off the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA is forecasting 12 to 17 total named storms: five to nine hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater); one to four category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

While peak season doesn’t typically occur until later in the summer — August and beyond — now is the time for everyone to prepare. That’s not just true for households and coastal communities — glider operators in the Gulf are also getting ready by preparing AUVs for launch and planning missions focused on gathering critical ocean temperature data needed by the National Weather Service and other hurricane modelers to help predict storm intensification.

GCOOS is supporting 18 glider missions this season, with most of them scheduled to take place during peak hurricane season. In addition to hosting this data on our glider piloting and tracking portal GANDALF, GCOOS will also be hosting Seaglider data from the southern Gulf of Mexico launched by Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada’s (CICESE) Grupo de Monitoreo Oceanográfico con Gliders (GMOG).

Dr. Nan Walker, GCOOS Board Member and Director of the Louisiana State University’s Earth Scan Laboratory, reports that on June 1, the Loop Current — which controls circulation and temperature in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico — began surging north toward Louisiana, surrounding a warm eddy that began separating from the current in mid-May. The surge introduced abnormally warm water from the Caribbean Sea into the eastern and central Gulf.

On June 9, surface temperatures within the southern Loop Current near the Yucatan Channel reached 30.5 C (86.7 F) (bottom blue star in the figure below). Temperatures cooled as it turned east and southeast (top blue star in the figure below) to maximum values of 28.9 C (84.1 F). Between May 1 and June 9 surface temperatures in the Loop Current rose 2.3 C (4.1 F) and areas impacted by the northward Loop Current intrusion warmed much more.

Tracking the Loop Current’s movements is an important aspect of hurricane prediction because many Gulf hurricanes — Opal, Lili, Katrina, Rita, Ida, to name a few — have intensified rapidly over the Loop Current and its warm eddies due to the high surface water temperatures and the current’s high heat content, as waters greater than 26 C (78 F) extend downwards 100 meters or more.

Later this month, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. This system is NOAA’s next-generation multi-scale numerical model, which includes a data assimilation package and ocean coupling and provides an operational storm analysis and forecast out to seven days with reliable and skillful guidance on hurricane track and intensity — including rapid intensification, storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall and tornadoes associated with hurricanes.

This season, HAFS will run in tandem with the current Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, but eventually will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model.

Retrospective analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 seasons show that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models. This new model was jointly created by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center.

Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service have announced that the predicted El Niño has emerged and issued an advisory noting that conditions are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.

El Niño’s influence on the U.S. is weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring. By winter, there is an 84 percent chance of greater than a moderate strength El Niño, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing. Typically, moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Niño winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.

The Research Consortium for the Gulf of Mexico (CIGOM) is an interdisciplinary and multi-institutional Mexican project funded by the Ministry of Energy (SENER) and the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT) Hydrocarbon Fund created in 2015.

The broad objective of the project was to provide sound and cutting-edge scientific knowledge of the Gulf of Mexico’s ecosystem in support of oil spill preparedness in Mexican waters, with a particular emphasis on the needs of PEMEX. More than 300 researchers in top Mexican institutions and abroad participated and contributed to an unprecedented accrual of understanding of Mexican waters and the entire Gulf.

The CIGOM project funded by SENER-CONACYT ends this August and is entering its second phase (called CIGOM2). A collaborative agreement signed by top academic institutions in Mexico will be led by Dr. Leopoldina Aguirre of the Center for Research and Advanced Studies of the National Polytechnic Institute (CINVESTAV Merida). Additional participating institutions include the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE), the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), the Center for Engineering and Industrial Development (CIDESI), the Autonomous University of Baja California (UABC), the College of the Southern Border (ECOSUR), the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM), Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos (UAEM), and the National School for Higher Education – Mérida Unit (ENES Mérida, an UNAM entity).

The Technological and Scientific Committee for CIGOM (CCCyT), integrated by the representatives of the participating institutions, recently met to establish the strategic areas that CIGOM2 will develop during the coming years. They include marine biotechnology, marine technology and data management, ecosystem vulnerability and socio-environmental risk assessment, atmospheric and oceanographic modeling, and responses of marine ecosystems to natural and environmental stressors. Ad hoc workgroups will develop these strategic areas considering existing research and service capacities, national and private sector needs, and funding opportunities. In addition, CIGOM will continue to collaborate with GCOOS to promote and facilitate data exchange and strengthen the network of ocean observing platforms within the Gulf.

The recent White House Ocean Climate Action Plan (OCAP) outlined the need for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) research and development as part of a comprehensive plan to fight climate change and coastal and ocean acidification.

On June 1, 2023, GCAN and SOCAN joined together to present a town hall to share news and information about mCDR’s potential, along with research and developments throughout the Southeast, Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean waters. Speakers Dr. Tyler Cyronak, Georgia Southern University, Dr. Grace Andrews, Project Vesta, and Dr. Alison Tune, Running Tide Technologies, shared their research and industry efforts to help stem the tide on acidification.

UCAR, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on behalf of the National Science Foundation has announced an opening for Underwater Glider User Group (UG2) Coordinator to continue building the network developed by current coordinator Bill Lingsch. UG2 is a community-based coalition aimed at bolstering scientific collaboration, information and resource sharing for underwater gliders and the position will be housed in the Center for Ocean Leadership (COL).

Did you miss the last Underwater Glider User Group (UG2) webinar on gliders and passive acoustics? If so, it’s available now. Speakers and topics were:

More than 100 experts from across the world — including GCOOS’s Senior Advisor Dr. Barbara Kirkpatrick — came together to author the new book Oceans and Human Health: Opportunities and Impacts, Second Edition. Released on World Ocean Day, the ground-breaking new book explores the inextricably interconnected and complex relationship between oceans and humans. Through the lens of the expanding oceans and human health meta-discipline, this work examines the many invaluable ecosystem services offered by oceans as well as the global anthropogenic impacts, and explores the associated risks and benefits to human health. The book also addresses benefits, opportunities, risks, and impacts resulting from the relationship between oceans and humans.

Dr. Kirkpatrick co-authored three chapters:

Scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) are predicting that the annual hypoxic zone, or dead zone, that develops in the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi River will be substantially below the 36-year average.

The dead zone is an area of low-to no oxygen that can kill fish and marine life and is caused by nutrient loading coming from the Mississippi River. NCCOS is predicting a dead zone of 4,115 square miles. (The average measured size is 5,364 square miles.) The prediction is based on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) river flow and nutrient data.

This is the sixth year NCCOS is producing an independent forecast, the culmination of a multi-year academic-federal partnership to develop a suite of hypoxia forecast models. The partnership included teams of researchers at the University of Michigan, Louisiana State University, William & Mary’s Virginia Institute of Marine Science, North Carolina State University, Dalhousie University, and USGS. The NOAA forecast integrates the results of these multiple independent models into a separate average forecast and is released in coordination with these external groups.

Development of the IOOS-funded Coupled Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT) Platform for Physics and Contaminant Exchange Through the River-Estuary-Ocean Continuum is advancing capabilities to track the fate of contaminants between land and sea.

Led by LSU’s Dr. Kevin Xu, the team’s testbed is Galveston Bay during Hurricane Harvey, which will allow them to further develop the coupling between a process-based community land surface/hydrological model and a 3D community ocean circulation model. The aim is to get a higher resolution forecast of how variables like temperature, salinity and water level affect the buoyancy and transport of sediment and contaminants under different conditions. GCOOS is a co-PI of this project, led by Executive Director Dr. Jorge Brenner, with Co-Data Manager and Systems Architect Felimon Gayanilo, and Dr. Chris Simoniello, Outreach and Education Manager.

When Harvey made landfall in Texas as a Category 4 storm in August 2017, it shattered the U.S. record for precipitation from a single storm, drenching the coast with 51 inches in some parts of Texas — and with the cities of Port Arthur and Beaumont seeing 26 inches within 24 hours.

NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist Chris Milliner and colleagues estimated that 60 percent of the precipitation was lost or drained into the ocean and Galveston Bay over the first few days post-storm. As a result, there was concern over water quality, particularly widespread contamination and unsafe drinking water conditions. Runoff from agricultural land laden with animal waste and chemical fertilizers, and resuspension and transport of waste from sewage facilities were the main causes of concern.

Now, six years post-Harvey, the coupled model developed under the COMT project is being applied to the testbed of Galveston Bay to validate its utility and enable use by partners like NOAA’s National Water Center.

Next up in the NOAA ‘Omics Seminar Series is "Pairing eDNA with an inshore acoustic survey for Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus): Challenges and Some Promising Findings" presented by Graham Sherwood, Senior Research Scientist, Gulf of Maine Research Institute.

While many studies show that eDNA can be correlated with traditional survey methods, issues related to catchability and/or detectability of target species and stability of eDNA may hamper the development of more robust correlations between the two measures of abundance. Sherwood’s current work builds on the results of a large-scale fisheries acoustic survey in coastal Maine, where Atlantic herring have previously been identified with a high degree of confidence, due to acoustic characteristics of schools and unique spawning behavior.

The U.S. Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) All Hands Meeting in May 2023 focused on the critical marine life information that is essential to ecosystem management, the economy and jobs.

Along with the Global Ocean Observing System and other organizations, U.S. MBON is working on the broad goal of establishing standard approaches for data sharing, standards for data formatting and metadata, products for users, and other elements of an integrated marine life observing program. GCOOS is a collaborating MBON partner.

The Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group of the Deepwater Horizon NRDA is seeking ideas for restoring fish, water column invertebrates and sea turtles harmed by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Project ideas may build on the progress made by existing restoration projects, or implement approaches and techniques distinct from those already underway. They will also consider phased project ideas.

Have you registered for GOMA’s All-Hands meeting yet? If not, better do so now — early registration ends Thursday, June 22!

Happy Anniversary to Louisiana State University’s Earth Scan Laboratory (ESL), an on-campus satellite data receiving facility and image processing lab. The ESL captures, processes and warehouses real-time data from a variety of NOAA and NASA satellites for use in research, teaching and other remote sensing-related activities.

This satellite imagery is essential to aid in the interpretation of in-water measurements of currents, temperature, salinity and chlorophyll a. Numerical modelers at LSU and beyond have employed ESL imagery and digital measurements as validation data to improve model performance.

Since its inception in the summer of 1988 as the brainchild of satellite imaging pioneer Dr. Oscar Huh, ESL’s researchers have pioneered imagery improvements particularly focused on Loop Current movements and yielding information that is key to hurricane modeling and forecasting.

Today, the ESL faculty director is Dr. Nan Walker, GCOOS Board member, while Alaric Haag manages the lab’s computer systems and programs graphical visualizations for dissemination on the ESL website. The ESL houses valuable images organized in daily, updated calendar archives that document Mississippi River flood events, hurricane impacts to coasts and nearshore circulation, coastal sediment transport and algal blooms, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, hurricane cool wakes, motion of the Loop Current and associated Gulf of Mexico eddies.

The National Academies is conducting a survey to gather input on the current state of ocean acoustics training and education in various sectors — including academic — as part of an assessment of the needs for ocean acoustics expertise, anticipated demand in the next decade and potential needs for additional training opportunities.

The National Academies GRP is seeking recommendations for peer reviewers to evaluate proposals and participate in virtual review panels for its 2023 funding opportunities.

GCOOS maintains a listing of funding opportunities. Have an opportunity you'd like to advertise? Email Laura Caldwell

20: Webinar: Overcoming Permitting Barriers to Unlock Coastal Resilience

21-23: Southwest Florida Watershed Summit, hosted by the Coastal & Heartland National Estuary Partnership (CHNEP). Call for abstracts open through April 14.

26-29: Gulf of Mexico Alliance All Hands Meeting, Austin, Texas

16-21: Gordon Research Conference, Chemical Tracers in the Sea, Manchester, New Hampshire

25-28: Oceans Conference and Exposition 2023 Gulf Coast, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi

24-25: Living Shoreline Tech Transfer Workshop, Galveston, TX

12-16: CERF 2023 Conference, Portland, Oregon

14-17: 2023 International Ocean Colour Science Meeting, St. Petersburg, Florida

19-22: Gulf of Mexico Conference, Tampa Convention Center, Tampa, Florida

Have meeting or workshop info you want to share? Email Laura Caldwell.

Dr. Jorge Brenner, Executive Director • Dr. Barbara Kirkpatrick, Senior Advisor • Bill Lingsch, Underwater Glider User Group Coordinator • Dr. Chris Simoniello, Outreach & Education Manager • Felimon Gayanilo, Systems Architect, Co-Data Manager • Bob Currier, Product Developer, Co-Data Manager • Dr. Uchenna Nwankwo, Oceanographer • Marion Stoessel, Senior Research Associate • Tuomo Saari, Scientific Computing Specialist • Jennifer Vreeland-Dawson, Research Associate, GCAN Coordinator • Grant Craig, Program & Volunteer Coordinator • Laura Caldwell, Program Assistant • Nadine Slimak, Public Relations & Content Marketing, Vetted Communications, LLC

In Memoriam: Matt Howard, 1952-2018