Dalio is concerned that China is on the verge of surpassing the United States as the world's dominant superpower. This shift in power will have profound implications for the global economy. He also explores the various challenges that the United States faces, including rising debt levels, political polarization, and declining economic competitiveness.
Peter Zeihan
Zeihan views the world through two different lenses, the first is demographics (the age distribution of a society's population) and geopolitics (the influence of geography on politics).
Following a long withdrawal of American leadership from the global stage, Zeihan believes that we are entering into a multi-polar world. Globalization (along with inexpensive imports) is fading and will be replaced by more resilient (but less efficient) networks of regional trading partners.
Europe is aging rapidly. China is doubly challenged by tight geographic boundaries along with collapsing demographics. America is blessed with a "geography of success" -- access to abundant natural resources to the North (Canada) and youthful pool of labor to the South (Mexico). It is also a superpower with energy independence... at least for the next few years.
In a contracting world with higher resource costs, Zeihan expects a rise of global disorder and social unrest. But on a relative basis, he also expects the U.S. (along with Argentina and maybe Southeast Asia) to become havens of continued prosperity.
Balaji Srinivasan
While Dalio and Zeihan map the rise and fall of nations, Srinivasan is looking ahead to a time when countries are no longer relevant.
According to Srinivasan, the nation-state model is ill-suited to the challenges of the 21st century. Centralized bureaucracies are unable to manage the world's complexity and adapt to changing technology. Globalization also makes it difficult for nation-states to control their borders and regulate their economies.
Srinivasan proposes a form of governance based on internet principles...
...unlike an ideologically disaligned and geographically centralized legacy state, which packs millions of disputants in one place, a network state is ideologically aligned but geographically decentralized.
A network state is a social network with a moral innovation, a sense of national consciousness, a recognized founder, a capacity for collective action, an in-person level of civility, an integrated cryptocurrency, a consensual government limited by a social smart contract, an archipelago of crowdfunded physical territories, a virtual capital, and an on-chain census that proves a large enough population, income, and real-estate footprint to attain a measure of diplomatic recognition.
There is much to consider here... the big concept is that many government functions could be distributed and subscribed to on a voluntary basis. The underlying structure for governance would be supported by blockchain technology. In this scenario, cryptocurrency is a Trojan horse for something much more significant.
