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BAM MARKET WRAP
April 28, 2017
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Frexit Averted! (For Now)
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
This morning excellent earnings reports from the technology sector was counteracted by a meager GDP report which showed first quarter annualized growth of .7%.   The GDP report led traders to temper their enthusiasm for the generally better than expected earnings reports of the last couple of weeks.  It should be noted that since 2011 first quarter GDP growth has averaged .9% compared with 2.4% in each of the other quarters.  So perhaps it is just a seasonal anomaly.  In any event, GDP growth will need to improve significantly to justify the current valuations in the market.  If not, then the long awaited bear market may come sooner than many expect.  After a lackluster start to the month where the S&P declined, the market surged after the French elections last weekend.  International markets also rallied strongly as the prospect of a Frexit became less likely.  


WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
The coming week will see another possibility of a government shut-down.  Today, Congress passed a one-week resolution to fund the government through next Friday.  If a longer-term deal is not made, then the markets will feel the pain of the increased government uncertainty.  Earnings reports will continue to drive day to day market activity.  With the surge earlier this week, the major indices all broke out of their short term down-trends setting the stage for a rally back up to the highs of the year.  The NASDAQ has already eclipsed those highs so it would not be surprising for the other indices to follow suit.  We are getting close to the traditionally weak market months so any surprises could easily curtail the rally.   The markets are again looking favorable.  As is always the case, things can change quickly so we remain nimble.  

HOW WE ARE DOING

Over the last couple of weeks, we have made significant adjustments to our portfolios.  We have upgraded some of our more conservative holdings to ones with more upside potential.  Specifically, we have moved out of our floating rate bond holdings and have moved those funds into US small cap and multi-country international funds.  As you are well aware, markets can change on a dime so we will continue to adjust portfolios as market conditions warrant.   


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Tidbits
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NOT THE BEST - The average US investor that manages their own investments has produced an annualized rate of return over the last 30 years that is equal to just one-third of the average return produced by the S&P 500 over the same 3 decade time period due to bad timing on the part of the investor (e.g., investing at bull market tops or selling at bear market bottoms), diversifying with bonds, and the impact of trading fees (source: Dalbar).  

NOT ENOUGH WORKERS - 73% of contractors surveyed in January 2017 said they had "a hard time filling salaried or hourly craft construction jobs" in 2016 (source: Associated General Contractors of America).

A LOT MORE RENTERS - As of the end of 2016, there were 118.6 million households in the United States, split 64/36 between homeowners (75.6 million) and renters (43.0 million).  Since the end of 2011 (i.e., 5 years earlier), the number of homeowners (75.3 million as of 12/31/11) has increased by just +300,000 while the number of renters (38.8 million as of 12/31/11) has increased by +4.2 million (source: Census Bureau). 

WHERE THE MONEY COMES FROM - Property taxes represent 31.3% of the total tax revenue collected by states, greater than the 23.3% of tax revenue collected from sales taxes and the 22.9% of tax revenue that comes from individual state income taxes (source: Tax Foundation). 

BEARS FOLLOW BULLS - The average decline for the S&P 500 during the 11 bear markets that have taken place since the end of World War II is 34% (source: BAM Research).  
  
 
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I recently entered the world of academia embarking on teaching a night class a few times a year at Belmont College.  As I have gotten older and a little grayer, my peers and clients have been asking more and more questions about social security and retirement planning.  When I realized, I didn't always have a good answer, I took it upon myself to educate myself and became a National Social Security Association Certificant.  I endured rigorous training and testing to achieve the designation and am proud of the accomplishment.  More importantly it allows me to better serve our existing clients and the community at large.  Teaching has been more difficult than I imagined and a very humbling and rewarding experience.  If you are in the Nashville area and are interested in the class or have friends or family that might be interested, please let me know as I am scheduling my Fall classes now.  Following in the educator footsteps of both my father and father-in-law, it is yet another example of the apple not falling far from the tree! 
 


DID YOU KNOW...

That if your 18 year old or older child is involved in a medical emergency you might not be able to find out their condition or make medical decisions on their behalf?  I have mentioned this in these pages before but it bears repeating.  If you have a college student or even a single young adult, you should strongly consider getting them to sign a health care proxy or even a durable power of attorney to allow you to make health care and other decisions for them if they are unable to make those decisions themselves.  I imagine you would make better informed decisions than a disinterested court.  You can read about it here and can get a copy of a state specific health care proxy here.



 Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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