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Manufacturing and Meta -
Impacts on Louisville
Commentary from URIC DUFRENE
Indiana University Southeast
Sanders Chair in Business
What should we make of the recent announcement that the parent of Facebook - Meta Platforms, Inc. - is investing $800 million in a River Ridge data center?
It's positive, as I told Business First when a reporter asked me for reaction. It’s not so much the facility but the name connected to the facility. It signals that yes, this region can land a company such as Meta.
In terms of jobs, projects such as these won't be replacing manufacturing anytime soon. Manufacturing remains one of Louisville's most important sectors.
Fueled by employers such as Ford and General Electric, Louisville manufacturing payrolls peaked at around 96,000 back in 1999. Since the trough at the Great Recession, they've been on the upswing. The latest numbers are close to 90,000.
Last year, in fact, one of the strongest sectors for Louisville Metro was manufacturing. Sector payrolls grew by 4.3% over the year, second to mining, logging and construction at 8.1%.
Nationwide, manufacturing hit a soft patch last year, adding only 14,000 jobs with year over year declines in industrial production. But signs are emerging that the national manufacturing chill may be warming up, providing further evidence of a recession miss. Evidence comes from positive reports for job growth, new orders, and customer inventories.
The last ISM manufacturing report came in much higher than expected.
The last national jobs report, which blew all consensus estimates out of the water, showed that manufacturing added 23,000 jobs, exceeding the total number of manufacturing jobs added over 2023. In the last three months alone, national manufacturing added 56,000 jobs.
The ISM new orders statistic, a survey measure of new orders, had the highest increase since 2020, and is now above 50, signifying growth in new orders.
And the customer inventories index plummeted to the lowest level since October 2022, suggesting that inventories may be thinning out, a sign of future production in the pipeline. An inventory measure like the inventory to sales ratio has remained flat for the past 7 months, suggesting that inventories have not grown relative to the level of sales. While that measure has increased from the pandemic low of 1.1, when inventories were quite scarce, a measure of 1.3 is a historically low number.
The current labor market will continue to support consumer spending, and when you compare this to the current state of inventories, national manufacturing may continue to see a steady increase in payrolls, unlike 2023.
We should also expect the same for Indiana and Kentucky manufacturing. Indiana manufacturing saw a decline of 4,000 manufacturing jobs over 2023, and Kentucky was just about flat, adding 2,000 jobs. A good part of Indiana losses likely occurred due to the slowdown in RV manufacturing. Jobs peaked in the Elkhart-Goshen region in 2022 and over a period of a year, declined by 10,000.
Manufacturing often leads growth or contraction in the overall economy. Last year’s expected recession never materialized but manufacturing stalled. As we begin 2024, manufacturing is now showing signs of growth, adding to the soft-landing argument. Along with the recent blowout payrolls report, 2024 may be shaping up as another year of steady growth.
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