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BAM MARKET WRAP
August 29, 2016
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FED SPEAKS, MARKETS YAWN, I TURN 50
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WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 
 
Chairwoman Yellen gave her much anticipated speech at the annual Jackson Hole meeting last week.   The market gave a collective yawn as they listened to her speech.  In many respects, I think the Fed has lost credibility as it has continuously floated trial balloons over the last few years.  It is not that the market doesn't care what the Fed says, but rather, I am not sure it believes what it says!  Chairwoman Yellen carefully parsed her words and said again that economic conditions are improving such that interest rate increases were increasingly likely in the coming months.  Wall Street yawned.  Most investors do not believe that the Fed will act before the election and many doubt that even a December hike is in the cards.  Whatever happens, any move will be small and symbolic at best.  Interest rates are going nowhere fast and, in a vacuum, that is good news for equities.  The wild card is the state of the economy - both US and abroad.  Eight years removed from the tumultuous summer of 2008, the economy is still sputtering and still in recovery.   August has also been a yawner with the S&P flat for the month with little to no volatility.  Things will likely pick back up once traders return from their end of summer vacation days.  Volume and volatility should increase after the long Labor Day weekend.  

 
WHERE WE ARE HEADED 
 
September and October have the well-deserved reputation for major market moves - a few major down moves.  The quiet summer should give away to a more exciting fall.  While the economy sputters and the markets hover in over-valued areas, it would be easy to convince yourself that the markets are in for a correction.  That may well be the case (certainly a number of technical indicators suggest a correction), however, with the Fed and other world governments at the helm, we think that any correction would be short lived and rather shallow with modestly higher prices likely through the election.  After the election, Wall Street will be forced to deal with either a President Clinton or President Trump (hard to get excited about either).  Regardless of who wins, there are always winners and losers and it will be our job to find out which is which.  

HOW WE ARE DOING

Our portfolios continue to drift up with the market.  The low volatility portfolios we have held for the better part of this year continue to exhibit excellent risk adjusted returns with all of our major portfolios (conservative, moderate and aggressive) up nicely for the month of August.  We exited our position in Gold as the yellow metal sold off.  We logged significant gains and will continue to watch this space for a re-entry at lower prices.  We have continued to hold our other positions but will likely begin to upgrade our funds to better performing areas to reflect the ongoing sector rotation in the general markets.   As always, we welcome your questions and comments.

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Tidbits
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BIG PIECE - Payroll taxes finance Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits.  Projected payroll taxes during fiscal year 2016 (i.e., the 12 months ending 9/30/16) are $1.1 trillion, 33% of the total tax receipts ($3.3 trillion) forecasted for the full fiscal year (source: Office of Management and Budget). 
 
NEED A LITTLE HELP - Just 6 life insurance companies have failed in the last 5 calendar years (2012-16) as of Friday 8/26/16 and were taken over by state insurance departments.  A total of 105 banks have failed over the same time period and were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (source: National Organization of Life & Health Insurance Guaranty Associations, FDIC).  
 
LOWER OIL PRICES - 45 of the 79 American companies (57%) that have defaulted on corporate debt in the 12 months ending 6/30/16 represent companies in the energy and natural resources industries (source: S&P Global Fixed Income Research).
 
COLLEGE AND CARS - The outstanding balance of student loans ($1.26 trillion) is larger than the outstanding balance of auto loans ($1.10 trillion) as of 6/30/16 (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York).  

 
 
 
 
MAKE MORE, PAY MORE - The effective federal tax rate for the top 1% of US taxpayers for 2016 is projected to be 33.0% of income, including federal income taxes, payroll taxes, excise taxes, estate taxes and gift taxes.  The estimate does not include the payment of state income taxes.  The effective federal tax rate for the bottom 20% of US taxpayers is projected to be just 3.5% of income (source: Tax Foundation). 
      
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It's almost Football Time in Tennessee with the Vols kicking off this Thursday night and a full slate of college football this weekend.  The NFL will follow the next weekend.  It is a wonderful time of year and marks the end of a sports drought during the dog days of summer.  Sam has continued to hold onto his UT tickets through the years and has developed a new hobby of selling them on StubHub.  He can sell a few games to recoup his cost and still have tickets available for family members to attend some of the bigger games.  It is astonishing what people will pay to see a football game live when you can enjoy it for free in the comfort of your living room.  That said, there is nothing like a fall day at Neyland watching the players run through the T.  It is a fun time of year.  August also marks my birthday month as I turned 50 (top of the rollercoaster) this year.  It has been a wonderful 50 years and I am looking forward to a few more.  May your coming weeks be filled with football and fun.
 
 


 Sam and Bo

 


 
 
 
Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.
 

 

       
We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  


 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      



 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
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Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

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Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

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Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

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Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright © 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

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