Non-fungible Treasuries and financial risk
Bank of America strategist Ralph Axel is out with a piece Wednesday arguing that the potential for liquidity problems in the $23tn Treasury market – which has relatively standardized securities – is “the single largest systemic financial risk today.” (Financial Times | Sep 8)
Fed on path for another 0.75-point interest-rate lift after Powell's inflation pledge
The Federal Reserve appears to be on a path to raise interest rates by another 0.75 percentage point this month in the wake of Chair Jerome Powell’s public pledge to reduce inflation even if it increases unemployment. Fed officials have done little to push back against market expectations of a third consecutive 0.75-point rate rise in recent public statements and interviews ahead of their Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. (The Wall Street Journal | Sep 7)
Zero-based budgeting gains clout as a way for companies to find savings
Many finance chiefs scouting for efficiencies are relying on zero-based budgeting, a tool that gained attention during the pandemic, to identify potential savings as they prepare for a possible economic downturn. Zero-based budgeting requires finance executives to question and justify each line item in every new budget period. More traditional budgeting techniques, in contrast, involve adjusting the previous year’s spending, taking into account economic forecasts and other factors. (The Wall Street Journal | Sep 6)
Dollar gains, euro slips further from parity
The dollar marched higher on Tuesday after a report on the US services industry in August reinforced the view that the US was not in recession, while the euro and rate-sensitive Japanese yen tumbled further against the greenback. The dollar index rose 0.547% after the Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing PMI edged up to a reading of 56.9 from 56.7 in July, the second straight monthly increase after three months of declines. (Reuters | Sep 6)
A 'canary in the credit coal mine'
Financial pain is spreading in the junk-loan market, showing how interest-rate increases are hurting debt-laden companies and worrying investors that a credit crunch looms as the economy slows. Defaults on so-called leveraged loans hit $6 billion in August, the highest monthly total since October 2020, when pandemic shutdowns hobbled the U.S. economy, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure represents a fraction of the sprawling loan market, which doubled over the past decade to about $1.5 trillion. But more defaults are coming, analysts say. (The Wall Street Journal | Sep 6)
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