October 26, 2021
One Day Voting Petition: Early Voting Depresses Turnout, Again

To: 156 reporters and commentators; 13 Chief Electoral Officers;
plus 226 folks who are generally interested in good governance including members of the Social Mavrik Federation.

From: Bob Bray, President, Social Mavrik Federation

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This copy of my 21st message about the One Day Voting Initiative Petition
is sent to the email inbox of:

CAMPBELL RIVER: Bob Bray announces that the recent Canadian election saw a 38% increase in early voting over the prior 2019 election, but a 4 percentage point decrease in voter turnout, demonstrating once again that early voting has depressed turnout below the 75% achieved in the 1988 election when almost everyone cast his or her ballot on Election Day.

Early Voting Depresses Turnout, Again
Voter turnout in the 2021 Canadian election was 62.25% according to Elections Canada, or 63% to be generous.

This is a decrease of 4 percentage points from the 67% turnout achieved in the prior 2019 election.

This voter turnout decrease coincides with a 38% increase in early voting.

The early voting vote-by-mail comes in two flavours: necessary and unnecessary.

The necessary vote-by-mail in the 2021 election was consistent with the 2019 election. There were about 50,000 out-of-town voters and 150,000 out-of-country voters who sent their ballots to Ottawa for counting.

The unnecessary vote-by-mail ballots were cast by in-town voters. These of course were justified by the pandemic for this election, but are unnecessary for future elections. These ballots were counted in each local riding, causing a delay of several days before the final results were confirmed.

The unnecessary vote-by-mail ballots totalled about 800,000 as reported in the media. I obtained this number from a Finn News report.

The increase is early voting also came from a huge increase in voting at the four days of advance polls. There were 5.78 million advance ballots according to a CTV report.

Combining the 800K in-town vote-by-mail ballots with the 5.78M advance ballots produces an early voting total of 6.6M ballots.

That's an increase of 1.8M early votes over the 4.8M cast in the 2019 election. A 38% increase.

Back in the day in the 1988 election when most ballots were cast on Election Day the turnout was 75%. It was hoped that making the voting process easier and more convenient would increase turnout. In the 10 elections since, that hope has been dashed by lower turnout rates.

Leaving the conclusion that early voting depresses voter turnout.

The above numbers are shown on the graph below.
Armchair Activists - Final Week
Final Week for armchair activists:

Day 1 - today, Tuesday
  • armchair activist downloads canvasser application form
  • armchair activist prints, signs, scans and completes
  • armchair activist emails completed form to proponent
  • proponent (that's me) emails form to Elections BC
Day 2 - Wednesday
  • proponent adds canvasser's name and info to Social Mavrik website
Day 3 - Thursday
  • Elections BC adds approved canvasser's name to Elections BC website
  • Elections BC forwards canvasser ID card to proponent
  • proponent forwards canvasser ID card and signature sheets to canvasser
Day 4 - Friday, October 29
  • canvasser downloads signature sheet and obtains one signature
  • canvasser witnesses the signature sheet
  • canvasser mails the signature sheet through Canada Post to proponent

Final Week for for proponent to meet the requirements of the IP-2021-001
Initiative Petition running from August 9 to November 8, 2021

Wednesday, November 3
  • proponent picks up Canada Post mail
Thursday, November 4
  • proponent assembles originals of forms and signature sheets into envelope
Friday, November 5
  • proponent usually delivers cartons of sheets in person to Elections BC
  • for this petition the envelope of sheets will be delivered by courier
  • proponent delivers envelope to Campbell River courier by 11:00am
Monday, November 8
  • courier delivers envelope to Elections BC in Victoria by 4:00 p.m. deadline
Direct Democracy 100 - Final Day
Today, Tuesday October 26, is the final day for enrolment in
Direct Democracy 100
Class of 2021

Curriculum includes hands-on experience with an
Elections-BC-issued Initiative Petition.

Enrolment is open to any adult whose name
is on the British Columbia voters list.

Faculty advisor contact info is shown on page two of the application form.

Student card is emailed upon registration.

Tuition is priceless.

First class honours earned by collecting one signature on one petition sheet.

Pedagogy is "learn by doing".

One Day Voting Initiative Petition - IP-2021-001
The name of this legislative petition is: Initiative to change the voting opportunities in provincial elections.

The petition is described on the Current Initiative Petitions page of the Elections BC website along with the Public Notice which can be seen here.

There are 6 + 1 = 7 canvassers (and one more in process) registered by Elections BC for signature gathering from folks
  • who prefer every voter (except an absentee one) to inform his or her choice from equal exposure to all election campaign dynamics before he or she casts a ballot in-person at the Election Day neighbourhood event
  • over those who feel the convenience of at-home vote-by-mail and advance polls are totally without nefarious consequences.

Names and ridings of the 8 canvassers are shown on the Social Mavrik list.
Watching Brief - Policing Petition - IP-2021-002
The name of another proponent's legislative petition in 2021 is:
Initiative to conduct a Surrey policing binding referendum.

The petition is described on the Current Initiative Petitions page of the Elections BC website.

At the time of writing 419 + 10 = 429 canvassers are registered for signature gathering from folks who prefer national policing over local policing.
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Bob Bray, President, Social Mavrik Federation
Phone: 250-504-0052
Mail: 784 Bowen Drive, Campbell River, British Columbia V9H 1S2
Email: bob.bray@socialmavrikbc.ca
Website: socialmavrikbc.ca
The Social Mavrik Federation is a registered society in British Columbia dedicated to conservative cultural politics through endorsing Party Leadership, MP, MLA, and Trustee candidates, and supporting legislative petitions.
October 26th Social Media Posts:
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Last week's Tweet:
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