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PDF | Research | Week of October 9, 2023

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Quote of the Week

“My bet is that we get another Fed rate increase in November.” – Wylie Tollette, chief investment officer, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions.

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Davos at the Delamar

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As master of ceremonies at last week’s Greenwich Economic Forum, your correspondent had a ring-side seat at the event’s sixth annual gathering at the Delamar Hotel in Greenwich, CT. The list of speakers read like a Who’s Who of Nobel-prize winning thought-leaders in business, economics, and investments. It was hard not to be overwhelmed by the depth and breadth of expertise coming at you during the sessions.

In particular, unlike many industry conferences, each panelist was worthy of key-note stature, making conversations on the stage incisive and provocative. Also, the range of topics – the world in “permacrisis,” sports investing, Ukraine, energy transition, and digital assets – provided attendees with a wealth of insights not readily available outside Switzerland.

While impossible to summarize our observations in any one commentary, we settled on three themes that flowed through many of the discussion.

The first was globalization. Not in a pejorative sense, as is it often presented, but as it describes trade and technology moving across national borders. Whether the topic was private credit, or real assets, or the impact of inflation and higher interest rates on...

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Chart of the Week

Labor Gains

September’s unexpected new job additions of 336,000 increased Fed hike concerns.

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Marina Lukatsky / Pitchbook LCD

PDI Picks

Patience Needed for Next NPL Wave

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No-one should expect a sudden 2008-style surge, but economic headwinds are expected to eventually translate to a promising opportunity set. 

Three years ago, Private Debt Investor launched a cross-asset class survey called the Fund Leaders Survey comprised of more than 100 senior buyout, growth, private debt...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Near-Term BDC Loan Maturities are Limited

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Finding quality opportunities to put money to work has been one of the main challenges faced by middle market lenders this year. However, it...

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Contact: David Puchowski / Refinitiv LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

A Disappointing Q3

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While private debt fundraising had a strong first half, distressed debt fundraising was exempt from that trend, according to PitchBook’s H1 2023 Global Private Debt Report. It’s a sudden drop-off from a trend that goes back more than a decade...

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Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch's Private Middle Market, Model-Based Credit Opinion (MBCO) Portfolio, 2Q23

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Fitch’s privately covered middle market (MM) portfolio is comprised of generally smaller issuers...

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Contact: Brad Hamner/ FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of New Issue First Lien Loans that Cleared with a J. Crew Trapdoor 

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper
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Private Debt Intelligence

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South Korea Sees Private Debt Interest in Medical Devices Industry  

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Aggregate capital raised in North America has hit $34.8bn in Q3 year-to-date (YTD), the highest it has been since Q2 2022, which...

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Contact: Jayda Etienne/ Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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Source: VanEck BDC Income ETF, BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Effective Yield...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.