BAM Banner
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAM MARKET WRAP
August 26, 2014
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  

WHERE WE HAVE BEEN 

 

As has been the case for the last couple of years, sell-offs have been very limited in their depth and duration.  The most recent sharp decline was very similar to the one in January.   In January the S&P lost 6% over 12 days only to recover all of those losses 14 days later.   The current decline lasted 11 days with the S&P shedding 4% while recovering all those losses in the next 10 trading days.  In fact, an unusual (and we would view unhealthy) pattern has arisen.  Since 2009, we have had 9 declines of greater than 4% but each decline has been shallower and shallower the higher the market has risen.  The declines have been 16.8%, 19.7%, 10.2%, 8.5%, 5.4%, 4.9%, 4.3%, 4.2%, and 4.0%.   


 

It is more than a little counterintuitive that as the market goes up and up that "corrections/pull backs" would be diminishing.  So as the market has risen over a 5-year period, the number of sellers keeps falling.  Does that sound sustainable to you?  Us either.   However, this situation can (and has) gone on longer than many expected.  Eventually, though, all of the sellers will come out at once and we will have a doozy of a correction.  And the longer the current environment persists, the bigger and more painful the correction will be. 

 

 

 

    

WHERE WE ARE HEADED 

 

Yesterday, the S&P reached all time highs and briefly exceeded the psychologically important 2000 level.   Though catchy, the 2000 level has little to no relevance.  The S&P has now had 12 days of virtually uninterrupted gains.  Technically, the correction that began in late July was nullified a few days ago.  However, a better entry point for long positions should be forthcoming when the market takes a pause.  That pause is likely to come any day, as the market cannot sustain these gains much longer without a rest.  What makes the rally all the more impressive is that it comes in the midst of a pretty disheveled rest of the world.  The geopolitical headlines certainly have not helped the markets and, yet, the drum beat continues as the markets continue to stretch further and further.  Some have argued, and it has some merit, that the rest of the world is so screwed up that the US is the only place worth investing right now.   That has likely led to a lot of foreign assets looking for a home in the relative sanctuary of the US markets.  We continue to believe that we will see a decline of some greater significance sometime in the next couple of months but that we will finish the year at these levels or above.  

 

 

HOW WE ARE DOING

  

Portfolio discipline led us to sell some of our positions when the market declined in late July and August.  With the correction likely behind us for now, we are awaiting a good opportunity to move some of the cash we have available back into the market.  That opportunity will present itself soon.  While we hate to miss the rally that started 12 days ago, we take comfort that we did not suffer the losses of the correction.  And one of these days (probably sooner rather than later), the correction won't stop at 4 or 5% but will inflict real damage on those investors that fail to abide by having a strategy for risk management.  

 

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


 
Tidbits
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

RISK OF RISING RATES - The average interest rate paid by the government on its interest bearing debt was 2.402% as of 7/31/14.  The average interest rate paid by the government on its interest bearing debt was 4.382% as of 7/31/08 (6 years earlier), equal to 2% greater than today.  Every 1% increase in the cost of debt on our nation's $17.7 trillion debt total is equal to $177 billion per year in interest expense (source: Treasury Department).

 

DISABILITY PROGRAM - The number of Americans receiving disability payments through Social Security has increased from 2.9 million in 1980 to 11.0 million in 2013.  Congress expanded in 1984 (i.e., 30 years ago) the ways in which Americans could qualify for disability benefits, shifting from a list of specific injuries to a more general review of a individual's capacity to work (source: Social Security).

 

WAS IT WORTH IT? - 56% of employees surveyed believe that if they had a higher level of education then they would be more successful in their employment career.  However 48% of college graduates with jobs today do not believe their degree is relevant to the work they are doing today (source: Glassdoor).

 

WHERE IT COMES FROM - 23 of 50 US states collect more money in the form of state sales tax revenue than they collect in personal income tax revenue.  5 states do not have any statewide sales tax: Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire and Oregon (source: Rockefeller Institute of Government).

 

 

 

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

 

As I watched the US Open tennis matches last night I reflected on one of the many good things that Sam instilled in me.  From an early age, I remember being out on the tennis court with him hitting balls and eventually getting to the point where I could challenge him and give him a good match (it should be noted that he stopped wanting to play me when I started making him sweat too much!).  With college, marriage and kids, I played little to no tennis up until a few years ago when I rediscovered the game.  Now I play a few times a week and have a league that I play in through the summer (our team clinched the title last week).  Sam, too, has continued to play and gets out there a time or two every week.  One of my claims to fame was that I used to beat regularly a kid by the name of Chris Woodruff.  Chris went on to play at UT, turned pro and had a successful pro career - even beating the likes of Andre Agassi in the French Open.  It would be well enough to leave the story there but I would be remiss in not sharing that I was 15, Chris was 8 and I was a full foot taller than him when I was beating him regularly! 

 

Context is always important and while the current stock market looks good from the outside, all might not be as rosy at it may seem.  Let's hope this rally lasts for a while longer.

 

Sam and Bo 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your financial partner for twenty years and counting because managing your money never gets old.

 

 

 

 

     

We continue to make posts to our blog throughout the week so check it regularly if you want to see our thoughts.  You can access it by following the link below.  

 

RECENT POSTS

 

 

 

THE GREATEST COMPLIMENT

 

In these uncertain times, a trusted financial adviser is more important than ever.  Whatever comes over the upcoming months and quarters, the markets are certain to have lots of volatility and wild swings.  Europe, the US economy and dysfunction in Washington, and continued trouble in Iran and the Middle East to name just a few.  If you have family, friends and neighbors that may benefit from our services, would you please forward this email and/or provide our contact information to them.  We purposefully do not spend time marketing our services so that we can devote all of our resources to managing your assets.  Thank you to all who have provided us referrals - it truly is the greatest compliment you can give us.      

 

 

 

 
BAM MARKET WRAP EXTENDED
EDITION
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Remember to visit our blog for market comments and observations in between newsletters.  We try to provide a few comments in between newsletters and certainly when there is a particularly interesting market day.  You can access it by clicking here. 

Quick Links
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Investing Philosophy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Contact Information
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BAM Logo

Knoxville Office

Sam Bills - (865) 525-1329

Nashville Office
Bo Bills - (615) 371-5928

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAAIM Newsletter Award

Published by Sam C. Bills, Jr.  Copyright � 2008 Bills Asset Management.  All rights reserved.

BAM Market Wrap is produced and distributed regularly via email by Sam C. Bills, Jr. of Bills Asset Management  3001 Flagstone Drive, Franklin, TN 37069 Phone (615) 371-5928 Fax (615) 250-4903 - www.Billsasset.com

Bills Asset Management  is an independent registered investment advisor (RIA) not associated with any financial institution.  Data used in this publication is gathered from reliable sources, although completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Performance results do not take into account any tax consequences and are not predictive of future results.  This publication does not give any specific investment advice, does not provide financial planning services, or consider any individual's financial situation, needs or goals.  This publication may not be reproduced or retransmitted in whole or in part without the consent of the author, Sam C. Bills, Jr.

 

Important Disclosure Information

 

Bills Asset Management ("BAM") composite performance results represent time-weighted actual performance results for continuously managed BAM accounts, which individual accounts BAM believes to be representative of its investment management process (i.e. mutual funds and exchange traded funds) for each specific strategy during the corresponding time period.  The composite performance results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other account earnings, and are net of applicable account transaction and custodial charges, and the separate fees assessed directly by each unaffiliated mutual fund and exchange traded fund holding that comprised each account, and the maximum investment advisory fee that the accounts would have incurred (by applying BAM's current investment advisory fee as set forth in its current written disclosure statement) during the corresponding time periods.

 

Please Note:  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, equal the performance results reflected, or equal any corresponding historical benchmark index.  The historical index performance results for all historical benchmark indices do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results.  The historical performance results for all indices are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual client or prospective client in determining whether the performance of BAM program meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s).  A corresponding description of each index is available from BAM upon request.  It should not be assumed that BAM account holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative benchmark index.  The BAM performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.

 

For reasons including variances in the investment management fee incurred, market fluctuation, the date on which a client engaged BAM's investment management services, and any account contributions or withdrawals, the performance of a specific BAM client's account may have varied substantially from the indicated portfolio performance results.

 

In the event that there has been a change in a client's investment objectives or financial situation, he/she/it is encouraged to advise BAM immediately.  Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments purchased and/or investment strategies devised or undertaken by BAM will be profitable. 

 

Information pertaining to BAM's advisory operations, services, and fees is set forth in BAM's current disclosure statement, a copy of which is available from BAM upon request.  Performance results have been compiled solely by BAM, are unaudited, and have not been independently verified.  BAM maintains all information supporting the performance results in accordance with regulatory requirements.