The key take-away from this chart: adjusting portfolio positions in anticipation of a bad geopolitical outcome is a hit-or-miss strategy. In six of the twelve instances, stocks were in positive territory one month after the event.
Stock market drops concurrent with negative geopolitical events are often significant, as the low point in the chart above depicts, but the duration of the impact is impossible to know, and other influences and countervailing events can affect stock prices, too.
Also, the negative stock market impact of geopolitical events tends to be in line with normal stock market declines experienced in years that did not include a hostile geopolitical event.
Since 1980, the average intra-year stock market drop has been 14.2% (see the first chart in the previous section of this letter).
It is understandable if you are troubled by geopolitical risk and worry about how it might affect your investments. Recent events have been distressing, violent, and cause a strong emotional response for many of us.
However, from an investment perspective, remaining dispassionate is recommended. Sticking to your investment approach and your financial plan will serve you well in the long term.
Inherited IRA RMD Relief – Again
For the fourth year in a row, the IRS has provided relief on Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) for beneficiaries of Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) who are subject to the 10-year payout rule.
This class of IRA beneficiary is known as “Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries” (beneficiaries who are not surviving spouses) and who inherited IRAs where the original owner died after December 31, 2019.
The original SECURE Act, which took effect in 2020, eliminated the stretch IRA for most IRA and Roth IRA beneficiaries whose original owner died after 12/31/2019, and replaced it with a 10-year withdrawal rule.
On April 16, the IRS issued Notice 2024-35, which excuses RMDs missed in 2024 for Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries.
The relief does not apply to RMDs for beneficiaries who inherited IRAs before 2020.
Pre-2020 inheriting beneficiaries are subject to the pre-SECURE Act rules, which allow any designated beneficiary to stretch distributions out over their own lifetime, resulting in smaller RMDs and a smaller annual tax bill.
We provided more information on this topic in our August 18, 2023 blog post entitled:
Heir Drama: Inherited IRA Update. The IRS also expects to issue final regulations on this topic later in 2024.
If you fall into the category of Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiary, you may want to consider the impact to your income tax situation over time by delaying distributions. Holding off could mean future spikes in taxable income, and ultimately paying more income tax over time.
College Update: Shifting the “Dream School” Mindset
Our colleague and college specialist Donna Cournoyer contributed the following update for college planning.
I grew up in a New England household where weekends were spent in ice rinks. I loved it! My brother was an ice hockey player, and I was a figure skater who joined my sisters in the sport each weekend (at the time, hockey for young women wasn’t an option).
I have a favorite quote from one of hockey’s greats, Wayne Gretzky, who said: “Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been.”
I was reminded of this quote recently during a conversation I had with a gentleman at a networking event while waiting in line for a “free headshot,” a perk of being a participant in the event.
My new acquaintance had grown children, and when I told him I was a college planning advisor, he perked up and said, “Good for you!” He then began to reflect upon his experience in helping his children with their college applications.
He said he was obsessed with one outcome: the bumper stickers he would be able to affix to the family car. Not the college cost; not where his kids would be happy and thrive academically; just the school with the best “elite” reputation.
He was from an affluent suburb in Boston. He said all the cars in his neighborhood had elite college bumper stickers: Harvard, Yale, Brown, etc. His primary thought, and self-admitted anxiety thinking about college for his children, was about those bumper stickers. He said literally “nothing else mattered.”
While this gentleman had every right to his approach and opinion (every family has their own list of criteria for choosing a college) I was taken aback. But I was also intrigued because he was so animated and emphatic while telling me his story.
While bumper stickers might have a limited audience, consider the scope of merchandise a typical family will buy at the bookstore during a college tour or event. Don’t many students and parents want to wear that sweatshirt to manifest attaining admission? It’s almost like a dream board (and maybe not so different from the bumper sticker after all).
That conversation at the networking event reinforced my belief in the importance of helping parents and students move beyond the emotional part of college search.
If families think deeply about their priorities and goals and how school choice will impact their personal financial situations, the decision framework might shift.
One critical outcome may be that “dream school” may no longer be synonymous with “elite school.”
Consider a recent Bloomberg article entitled If You Didn’t Get Into an Ivy, a Public School Is the Better Investment, which claims that many elite private colleges underperform when it comes to the average student’s return on investment.
The Bloomberg News analysis of more than 1,500 nonprofit four-year colleges shows the return on investment at many elite private institutions outside the eight Ivies is no better than far-less selective public universities.
The analysis shows that a typical 10-year return on investment of the so-called “Hidden Ivies” – a list of 63 top private colleges – is about 49% less than the official Ivies and 9% less than states’ most prominent universities, known as public flagships.
These statistics are meaningful because of the high cost of attendance. For instance, a recent New York Times article commented on a situation where a newly admitted Vanderbilt University engineering student was shown an all-in price of attendance for their first year of $98,462.
As a financial advisor providing college planning, I encourage a holistic approach to the planning and decision-making process, with the goal of finding the most affordable choice that also is a great fit for the student to accomplish their academic goals, in a community and location where they will be happy and flourish.
There are so many excellent schools with significantly lower total cost of attendance and lower out-of-pocket costs compared to the often-elusive elite institutions.
Many of the alternatives will give students a four-year merit scholarship along with a great education and a wonderful experience. These institutions are p aces where students can build a tremendous foundation, lifetime friendships and mentor relationships, and gain experience to build on.
Which brings me back to Wayne Gretzky’s quote.
I recommend families move away from where college admissions goals have been: attaining admission to a brand-name, elite school.
Instead, consider where holistic college admissions planning is going:
- acknowledging emotions
- thinking deeply about priorities and goals
- discovering which institutions align best with those priorities and goals
- considering how school selection will affect student’s and parents’ long-term financial situation
Shifting the Dream School mindset and using a holistic planning approach to college search will help parents and students make the best all-around “smart choice” from their college list.
Reading Room: Happiness, and Its Price
How happy are people around the world?
A comprehensive study on the subject, the
World Happiness Report (WHR) is produced annually and measuring happiness around the world.
Below is a heatmap of happiness by country.