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Late last year, I predicted that the Federal Reserve would not pivot on interest rates in 2024, and yesterday's Producer Price Index came in hot, adding one more metric to the inflation equation. Even if today's CPI report comes in cooler than the last several months, PPI is a future predictor, and all signs point to increased inflation and the Fed overnight rate staying higher, longer. Any variability in mortgage interest rates will come from fluctuations in the economy and bond yields, which have recently decreased. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.11%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.415%. Mortgage rates today are well within the operating range of the last few months, bringing no surprises and creating stability for the selling season. The significant changes are what shock buyers, with spikes slowing activity and decreases below the 7% threshold, creating more activity.
Deschutes County Listings
Sellers continue to list, with Deschutes County seeing another big jump in inventory this week to 940 single-family listings, an increase of fifty-four from last week. Pending sales also jumped to eighty-six from sixty-eight last week, with only sixteen median days listed before securing a contract. The median pending sale price increased more than 200k to $822,500, with the weekly average at $954,133. Only nineteen homes reduced the list price before securing a contract. Fifty-seven homes closed at a median of 750k and an average of $946,749, with nineteen price reductions before finding a buyer.
Bend Homes Over $2M
In Deschutes County, the average sold-to-original list price ratio for the week was 97.13%. This ratio indicates price drops before securing a contract and does not account for prices negotiated below the asking price. The nineteen price reductions of fifty-seven sold properties account for 33.3% of the sold inventory, a typical amount in a healthy market. Despite growing inventory, strong buyer demand has prevented sellers from needing to retreat significantly on price.
Crook County Listings
Crook County inventory dropped two, now at 119 single-family listings. Fifteen homes are pending this week, with six closed transactions. None of the six homes that closed this week took a price cut before securing a buyer, with three getting full-price, two taking offers below the list price by -5% and -2.5%, and the last accepting an offer 5% over the asking price. The limited inventory in Crook County and strong buyer demand keep prices firm.
Jefferson County Listings
Jefferson County homes for sale increased by three to eighty-six, with four pending sales and five closed transactions. The pending sales were listed for a median of twenty-nine days and showed a median price of 587k, with only one price reduction. The sold homes in Jefferson County this week show a median sale price of 275k and an average of 270k, the first closing under 300k since late October 2023. Jefferson County might be a great option for those on a tighter budget.
Testimonials
Deschutes County inventory is the largest since August 17, 2022, with no signs of slowing. The increase in available homes has helped buyers tremendously, with significantly more options than last year. Sales this week were up two from this week in 2022. However, judging by the flood of listings, there is a strong chance more homes will linger through the summer, creating more inventory this fall. Buyers looking for opportunities that don't find what they need this summer may have more options this fall than in the last few years. If mortgage rates dip below 7%, I anticipate some of the better deals of the previous housing cycle. Figuring out pricing in today's market can be tricky, so reach out if you have questions about a property you are considering. I am always available to run a detailed analysis to help you make the best decision. There are limited comps in some cases, but with my deep knowledge of our market, I can help with pricing any property in Central Oregon.
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