As we move forward to the next stage of the presidential election, candidates, campaigns and the pundits around them will do well to keep in mind that the majority of American voters either have criminal records themselves or love people who do.

Friends,

Like you, I’ve been glued to my phone through the tumult of the past few weeks. There are a lot of storylines coming out of this chaotic time that we will unpack for decades. I’ve been particularly focused on how both political parties have turned the volume up on the topics of crime, criminal convictions, and the criminal justice system. 

More and more people are catching on to the fact that it matters a lot in this election cycle how you talk about criminal justice and criminal justice reform. That's for a few reasons: former President Trump's campaign continues to talk more and at greater volume about the former President's own legal battles and his criminal record in the context of a larger unjust system. More recently, it’s also because the new presumptive Democratic nominee is a former prosecutor--and she also has a meaningful record on criminal justice reform. Too many pundits have punched this up as the battle between the prosecutor and the "felon." It might make for catchy headlines but it's a fast, steep drop to bad policy and it's also really bad politics when you think about how many voters have been directly or indirectly impacted by criminal convictions and incarceration. I’ll use this newsletter to provide some guidance on framing that can hopefully help drive better policies and politics in the short and long run.

Read on if you have the time but some recommendations up top:

X Don’t: Shorthand “felon” as a disqualifier for leadership. More than 70 million Americans have criminal records and almost all of them can vote. 

✓ Do: Call out the specific harmful actions and policy positions of candidates; call out a lack of accountability and remorse; remind voters that without accountability and remorse there is no reason to believe harmful actions won’t happen again.  

✓ Do: Acknowledge the injustices undermining the American criminal justice system and that the price of mass incarceration is not paid by billionaires or presidents.

X Don’t: Shy away from talking about safety or justice or place them in competition. 

✓ Do: Look to the polling that shows voters want both safety and justice and communicate that any real safety agenda must include a commitment to justice and second chances. 

✓ Do: Point to the evidence of the many, many safe and effective criminal justice reforms that have proven themselves in red and blue states from Utah to Nevada, Michigan and Mississippi. The states that have reduced imprisonment have seen the largest reductions in crime. Be for more of that.

First, and at the risk of stating the obvious: most people with felony convictions are not billionaires or presidents

We’re all aware–the Supreme Court just gave presidents broad immunity on official acts but the reality is that most of us aren’t so shielded from criminal consequences. One in three Americans have a criminal record–as many as have a college degree. Nearly half of us have had a family member incarcerated. Black people are incarcerated in state prisons at nearly five times the rate of white people and are 50% more likely to have an immediate family member who has spent time in jail or prison. One-in-three Black men have a felony conviction. That’s an awful lot of people to be counting out when we shout “felon!” without caveats and without acknowledging the harms of the criminal justice system. 

Pundits and strategists who see President Trump on track to potentially have the best performance from a Republican with Black voters since the civil rights era would be very, very ill-advised to discount the impact of his criminal justice based appeals. It’s been clear for a while now that the Trump campaign has made a strategic decision to court certain voters by invoking his legal battles. Here’s Fox with 50 Cent on how he believes Black men were "identifying with Trump" because "they've got RICO charges [too]." Politico on outreach led by Tim Scott to Black and Brown voters: "The Black guys I’m talking to around South Carolina … are fed up with this two-tiered justice system." Just this week, the New York Times published an article on Trump cultivating his “gangster” image. And some direct messaging from Vivek Ramaswamy speaking at the Republican National Convention: “Our message to Black Americans is this: the media has tried to convince you for decades that Republicans don’t care about your communities, but we do. We want for you what we want for every American–safe neighborhoods, clean streets, good jobs, a better life for your children. And a justice system that treats everyone equally, regardless of your skin color and regardless of your political beliefs.”

Do I agree with Vice President Harris and many others that Black voters–or any voters–should not be reduced to or defined by disproportionate rates of contact with the criminal justice system? I definitely do. AND, I think it is absolutely critical to listen to what voters want from their leaders when it comes to safety and reform.

The consensus is pretty overwhelming: Voters want leaders who commit to more criminal justice reform.

Poll after poll shows that voters want real solutions and actions to increase safety and justice. A recent survey of voters in battleground states found that more than 60% of these voters would feel better about Vice President Harris’ candidacy if she announced a more progressive policy on criminal justice reform. Fully a third would feel much better.

Source: Change Research, Battleground survey, July 2024.

You may recall from past newsletters that our own recent polling found that more than 6 in 10 voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate that supports reform. Black voters in key swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania overwhelmingly say that it is important to reduce the jail and prison population nationally.

Mass incarceration has torn families apart, stunted economic growth and recovery, and disrupted the social fabric of too many American communities. Voters need to know their leaders recognize these problems and that they will safeguard justice even as they work to keep communities safe.

Don’t be shy–take a bow! While there’s much more work to be done, there’s so much legacy to run on.

Policymakers and leaders directly affected by mass incarceration championed reforms over the past fifteen years that meant 500,000 fewer people were behind bars in 2022. A decade ago, Black men were more likely to go to prison than graduate college. Today, the reverse is true. People released under the First Step Act, which Vice President Harris supported as a senator, are less likely to return to federal prison. Just this past year the Sentencing Commission–which the Biden/Harris Administration got up and running after many years of dormancy–made vital changes to the Federal Sentencing Guidelines that will affect tens of thousands of people and are already reuniting families. Even more recently, Governor Murphy in New Jersey and Governor Moore in Maryland announced major clemency initiatives, following the lead of the Biden/Harris Administration on pardons particularly for marijuana offenses. 

This is the kind of change that matters here and now, and will reverberate for generations to come. And, it’s worth repeating, all this progress happened safely. 45 states reduced imprisonment rates and crime rates simultaneously, and crime declined two times as fast in these states as in the five that increased imprisonment. (For more evidence that safety and justice go hand in hand, check out our last newsletter). 

There are a lot of big questions swirling about the election right now, but on this issue the opportunity is clear: speak compellingly to voters about the need to advance both safety and justice. Take action that benefits them and strengthens their families and communities. Give people an affirmative reason to turn out and vote.   

There are real stakes for many, many Americans when it comes to questions of criminal justice reform. The price of mass incarceration is not paid by billionaires or presidents, and the people who benefit most from reform want more of it. We should listen.

Zoë Towns

Executive Director, FWD.us